LONG READ Does Joe Schmidt need to change his Wallabies captain?

Pop quiz. What do Angus Bell, Josh Nasser, Nick Frost, Harry Wilson, Fraser McReight, Carlo Tizzano, Noah Lolesio and Ben Donaldson all have in common?  If you know they are all current members of Joe Schmidt’s senior Wallabies squad, give yourself a tick.

But they were also comrades in the most successful Junior Wallabies programme of all back in 2019. If you know that, give yourself a gold star. Mark Nawaqanitawase was an important part of that side too, just as he would be if he was available for the senior team now. That fragment of wisdom earns you one final extra pat on the back.

Those outstanding Australians finished runners-up to France in the World Rugby U20 Championship, losing the final by a single point. Their skipper was McReight. Even though Schmidt’s choice, Wilson, was a starter, it was his Queensland back-row brother who was Jason Gilmore’s pick as captain.

McReight was the best number seven in the Super Rugby Pacific regular season, against outstanding competition, and he is one of the very few automatic choices in Schmidt’s run-on XV when fully fit. Probably, he is the only one – only Bobby Valetini and Len Ikitau might argue the point.

Australian rugby would be well-advised to heed the lessons of the heyday of Australian cricket in its captaincy selection process. The received wisdom was always that Aussie – unlike traditional foes England – always picked its best team first, then selected a skipper from among that group of players.

Ex-Wallaby legend Tim Horan might have had the same idea in mind when reviewed the captaincy possibilities in the early stages of SRP 2024.

“Leadership. We don’t know who’s going to be the Wallaby captain, does that change? Does Allan Alaalatoa get a go at it?

“Does Fraser McReight? Does an Angus Bell? What does Joe Schmidt do?

“Certainly, Fraser McReight [is] in the likening there.”

On Stan Sport at the weekend, former Wallaby Morgan Turinui and dual-code international Sonny Bill Williams were both hot to trot on the same train of thought.

“Great with carry, working hard, covering up his teammates, pressure at the breakdown and an attacking threat. [McReight] is getting better and better.

“He is the perfect example of what happens when Joe Schmidt gets time with his team, gets time with his player. If you are a Wallaby now, Joe Schmidt gets to do the fun things with his team.” [Turinui]

“He can do it all. He has really come of age in the last few Tests. [Almost] the best player on the field. I thought it was going to be a long time before we would see someone step into the role of Michael Hooper, but I think we’ve found him.” [SBW]

With the end-of-year tour in only six weeks, and the opening fixture against England at Twickenham on November 10, there will be no respite. One of the areas which could be transformed for the better is in the back-five forwards. But that change might mean Schmidt biting the bullet over his choice as skipper and transferring the armband to McReight.

That would be a big call. Schmidt expressed his pleasure with Harry Wilson’s progress in the role on Saturday evening.

“Going north for us is still about building depth, because this year’s big project was about building depth.

“We have had 16 debutants and a new leader and Harry’s done very, very well. Those four Test matches, they make up the Lions for next year so we get a good look at their personnel.

“It’s a bit like when we come up against the All Blacks here, you know it’s going to be a really tough tour, but if we can keep building through that tour then I think we’ve put ourselves in a position of potentially being competitive next July.”

There is never any doubt about the big Queenslander’s passion for, and whole-hearted approach to, the game, and he has taken on the extra responsibility of captaincy in his stride. But there is a big question mark over whether he can hold his position in the starting XV with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto recovering from injury, and Will Skelton also likely to be available for selection.

On attack, Australia scored only 11 tries in their six Rugby Championship games – nine fewer than Argentina [20], 11 fewer than New Zealand [22] and 13 fewer than tournament winners South Africa [24]. There was a lack of penetration throughout the tournament for a side which depends so heavily on one-out forward carries. At the Cake Tin, the Wallabies set 114 rucks but achieved only one try and four line-breaks from them. One break for every 28 rucks set will not win you many Test matches.

The point can be reinforced by a quick study of the post-contact metres gained by key Wallaby forward ball-carriers during the game in Wellington.

There is no problem with the willingness and desire of Wilson on the carry. He has been switched with Valetini to number eight and he carries most of the burden. The problem is his percentage of post-contact metres was considerably less than all the other big men and he committed four turnovers of the ball in the process. Here are two of the more significant examples.

If you are going to be the premier choice as first-wave ball-carrier, you need to be able to hang on to the ball, especially in situations close to the opponents’ goal line. Giving the opponent prime counter-attack ball for free, or surrendering possession when you are poised to score, is not part of the bargain.

Of greater concern was Wilson’s contribution in defence. For both the second and third All Blacks’ tries he was out of position.

It is McReight who ends up missing the tackle on Will Jordan in the first clip, but it is Wilson’s poor alignment which creates the hole for Jordan to run through in the first place. It only looks Jordan is McReight’s man, but the underlying reality is very different. The third try is precipitated from the same chemical formula, with Wilson too slow to close up on Nick Frost and plug the gap for cutback run by Caleb Clarke. Essentially it was the same try scored twice over, as Schmidt observed after the game.

“They connected so well back off the sideline a couple of times – running back laterally, and then connecting up with square runners,” the coach said.

“Caleb Clarke doing it, Will Jordan doing it – and we didn’t quite stay connected. They run some pretty good guys in screens in those areas so we have got to be able to push past them and still make those tackles.”

There were other, more minor examples which suggested cumulatively, the All Blacks knew their man and were looking to target Wilson’s relative lack of lateral mobility.

These are both examples of two defenders committing to the same attacker unnecessarily, and the Australian captain is the common denominator. In the first instance from lineout, Sam Cane is clearly set up as a ‘post’ to drop the ball inside: Wilson could have slowed to give Matt Faessler a bit on assistance and deliver his hit on Clarke instead of the flanker.

In the second, the pass from Jordan to Rieko Ioane stops the centre in his tracks, and that should offer ample time for Wilson and Hunter Paisami to get themselves sorted and numbered correctly to shut down the ensuing play.

Both Ethan de Groot and Damian McKenzie seem to know they will get the opportunity to offload the ball and continue the attack through the tackle of the Wallaby skipper, and that type of specific targeting of an individual defender is always a serious concern for any head coach – but most especially for a coach who anointed him as his representative on the field.

Wilson has shown definite improvement over the last Super Rugby season, no question. He has added lineout prowess to his repertoire [18 takes in the Rugby Championship] and handled the national captaincy with considerable maturity.

Flip the coin over, and doubts remain over his ability as the primary first-wave carrier and his positioning in defence. Wilson does not puncture the line often enough and his hands can be suspect. On defence he is an excellent hitter but not a great mover.

With Salakaia-Loto returning from injury and Skelton likely to be available, there is a strong case for shifting Jeremy Williams to six, moving Valetini to the back of the scrum and installing Wilson’s old mate McReight as skipper, just as he was in that best-ever Junior Wallabies squad of 2019. It may not affect a beautiful friendship, but as Aristotle Onassis once proclaimed, “I have no friends and no enemies – only competitors.”