LONG READ Drought-busting win over Brumbies gives Waratahs platform to build on

If there’s been a familiar pattern to the Australian teams’ start to Super Rugby Pacific in 2025, it’s undoubtedly been the firsts recorded and the number of losing streaks broken.

The Western Force’s first win against the ACT Brumbies in Canberra in more than 5,000 days, going back to 2011, also snapped a 15-game losing run on the road. The Brumbies then went and won in Auckland for the first time since 2013, having been the first Australia team to win in Fiji only a few weeks earlier.

On Saturday Queensland cast a 12-year hoodoo in Dunedin aside, beating the Highlanders 29-23 to record their first win under the perspex roof since 2013.

And then New South Wales joined the fun, beating the Brumbies for the first time in 14 matches dating back to 2018. Their 28-23 victory was also the first time they’d won a Hume Highway derby in Sydney since 2015.

As it stands, all four Australian sides occupy places inside the top six, which feels like something that hasn’t happened for a long time. It doesn’t guarantee anything with another 10 rounds before the play-offs, of course, but the fact it’s happened after six rounds is an obvious sign of their collective progression in the competition.

The re-emergence of the Waratahs is certainly an important component of that progression. Already the Allianz Stadium crowd has grown by close to a quarter from the opening night of the season, and performances like the one against the Brumbies will only help grow that further.

Which is not to say they’ve been getting better every week. You only have to go back seven days to find a display their own coach labelled “embarrassing”, where the completely dominant Queensland pack literally ran a lineout drive in for a try from the 22m line.

After big losses coaches tend to go back to basics and make sure everyone is on the same page for the one united task within the game, but getting the desired response is far from guaranteed.

It’s that showing in Brisbane that makes this win over the Brumbies all the more special. The same players who would have been embarrassed and faced a tough time during the review of the 35-15 Reds defeat fronted back up a week later and played a polar opposite game.

The biggest shift was clearly in their defence. After big losses coaches tend to go back to basics and make sure everyone is on the same page for the one united task within the game, but getting the desired response is far from guaranteed.

But here were the Waratahs, comfortable within their defensive patterns, repelling Brumbies’ raids with monotonous regularity, especially through the first half.

It was noticeable live, but watching the match on replay confirmed just how little time the Brumbies spent in the Waratahs’ 22m through the first half. Numerous attacking raids from the Brumbies either never crossed into the attacking ‘A-zone’ or ended with a mistake that relieved any pressure they may have been mounting.

The Brumbies scored through a Noah Lolesio penalty in the first minute, but they couldn’t get any closer than three or four metres from the 22m in the five phases they played before electing to take the shot at goal.

Their first entry into the Waratahs red zone came in the eighth minute from Lolesio’s clever 50/22 kick to win an attacking lineout, from which a strong Rob Valetini carry on the inside got them to within five metres of the Waratahs try line. The Brumbies took three pick-and-drive carries infield from this ruck, but never got closer than five metres out. They tried to play wide left for Corey Toole from there, but his attempted flick pass ricocheted back to the NSW side, before referee Ben O’Keeffe went back for an offside penalty which the Brumbies again elected to convert into three points.

A Brumbies turnover in the 12^th minute had them on the Waratahs’ 22 again, but after Tom Wright at first receiver kicked wide for Andy Muirhead after seeing open space in behind the NSW defence. Muirhead got the bounce but was bundled into touch by Max Jorgensen desperately scrambling back after initially committing up in the line and leaving open the space Wright saw.

In the 21^st minute, and in response to Teddy Wilson’s runaway try ably assisted by Rob Leota – who was outstanding down the left edge – another big Valetini midfield carry from a lineout put the Brumbies back into the attacking zone, but it took them the next seven phases just to get back to the Waratahs 22m line. NSW made ground through their defence, Valetini knocked on carrying into the next contact, and another attacking raid was effectively extinguished.

To this point, the Brumbies had spent no more than a minute in the Waratahs’ 22, and with only Toole’s flick-pass into Tristan Reilly’s boot and Muirhead’s no-try to speak of. Despite being largely on top for most of the opening quarter, the Brumbies were already behind on the scoreboard.

And it got worse from there. Reilly scored his kick-and-chase try down the right edge from his own half to make it 14-6, after Lolesio knocked-on into contact on halfway, and hooker Billy Pollard then received a yellow card in the 27^th minute for his high shot on Langi Gleeson.

Lolesio by now was making unforced errors after an encouraging start, kicking out on the full in the 34^th minute looking for another 50/22 opportunity, and a minute later the Waratahs played seven phases from halfway into the Brumbies’ 22m. They played wide left and found the space for Leota to score after beating Muirhead one-on-one on the left edge.

The ACT side would have trudged off the field thinking they should have been leading, and certainly not trailing 21-6… it remains debatable whether they were actually ever good enough to lead at any point in this match.

Two minutes before half-time, the Brumbies got their first attacking lineout opportunity, winning their throw uncontested as the Waratahs prepared to defend the five-metre lineout drive. The defence was effective in halting progression, with the maul going to ground as Pollard peeled off right down the short side. Jorgensen, Wilson and Hugh Sinclair engaged contact two metres out, deliberately allowing Pollard’s momentum to cross the try-line, while they held on to successfully hold the ball up.

And that was as close as the Brumbies got in the first half. A lineout on halfway right on the stroke of half-time perfectly illustrated their first 40 minutes. After four phases got them no closer than 20 metres from the Waratahs line, lock Caderyn Neville knocked-on on the Waratahs 22m line to end the first half.

The ACT side would have trudged off the field thinking they should have been leading, and certainly not trailing 21-6. Though they narrowed the gap late in the second half, it remains debatable whether they were actually ever good enough to lead at any point in this match.

The Waratahs’ defence had held strong and went on with the job after the break, continuing to repel attacking raids and force mistakes as their scoreboard pressure continued to work against the Brumbies.

ACT fans are still up in arms about several decisions through the match, and it’s fair to say O’Keeffe and his team of officials have had better games in their collective careers. But the fact remains the Brumbies were never able to mount enough pressure on the Waratahs defence.

And that would have been the most satisfying part of the win for now Waratahs coach Dan McKellar, and his team of assistants including Dan Palmer and Lachie McCaffrey, the three of them enjoying significant rugby coaching and/or playing history in Canberra.

Coming into this match the Waratahs were operating at just under 88% tackle effectiveness, making 166 tackles a game on average. Asked to defend more in this match with the Brumbies earning 56% of possession, the Waratahs had to make 193 tackles and lifted their success rate to a shade under 90%.

And it was clearly effective, with the total match stats showing only 4% of the game was played in the NSW 22. Despite winning the lion’s share of possession, just under two-thirds of the match was played on the Brumbies side of halfway.

There’s a concern that while assistant coach Mike Catt is incredibly well-credentialled, and his attacks typically have a lot of effective moving parts, after five games the Waratahs’ attack still lacks a definite pattern

But as impressive as the New South Wales defence was, there remain plenty of other aspects of their game still needing plenty of work.

They won only two-thirds of their own scrum ball, and only three-quarters of their own lineout ball, too. When we spoke in pre-season, McKellar specifically made mention of the significant losses of Jed Holloway and Ned Hanigan, and these lineout numbers, coupled with just the one effective maul set and won for the whole match, are a reminder of how handy both those players might be in the current Waratahs pack.

There’s also a concern that while assistant coach Mike Catt is incredibly well-credentialled, and his attacks typically have a lot of effective moving parts, after five games the Waratahs’ attack still lacks a definite pattern and probably has an over-reliance on playing wide and hoping like hell Jorgensen can come up with something.

In his defence, the Wallabies wing often has, and he had a hand in several Waratahs tries in Sydney on Saturday. But just as years ago I used to write about a Waratahs attack known only as JGITF – Just Give it to Folau – the ‘Tahs can’t rely on ‘JGITJ’ forever. The kid still isn’t 21, we must remember.

Lawson Creighton is playing an effective territory kicking game from fly-half – noting again how much of this game was played in the Brumbies’ half – but there remains little attacking connection between Creighton and his midfield and the Waratahs with ball in hand are not a difficult team to defend.

But their defence has given them a really strong platform to build on, and while they continue to convert half-opportunities into points as they did on Saturday, they certainly have enough ammunition to not just compete, but to win games.

Where they go from here is up to them. And Australian rugby can only benefit if New South Wales falls back in love with its rugby team again.