If England were an item on a cake counter they would be a Battenberg – tasty-looking initially but ultimately disappointing.
During an autumn when optimism has given way to frustration on a weekly basis, their home-straight slip-ups have rendered them the Devon Lochs of Test rugby.
You can pick your poison as to why it has gone wrong late on in each game – poor substitutions, a lack of depth on the bench, not picking France-based players, mental hang-ups, fitness issues – but whatever the cause England have been left in a gloomy space.
Three successive home defeats and five on the bounce in all are miserable statistics. The only consolation for England supporters is that at least they’re not Welsh.
If results are the currency by which a side is judged – and they are – England are at their lowest ebb for six years. The thing is though, England do not look like a side in freefall.
They have lost to three top teams – it turns out Australia aren’t nearly as bad as advertised – by a click of the fingers. The average margin of defeat over this exasperating period has been 4.8 points. They are not that far off being a winning side.
Had this autumn’s schedule been assembled in a different order with Japan first up, there is every chance England would have won the majority of them
In a sense that almost makes things worse, especially when it isn’t just the brilliance of a Mark Tele’a or a Len Ikitau or a Cheslin Kolbe which has condemned them to defeat. They have been more than simply witnesses at the crime scene; in each case to some degree or other they have been complicit.
But on the flip side it should not be beyond England to inch from the funeral parlour into the parade ring. There are areas which need fixing up – the defence, both close to the ruck and in blitz mode wider out, being the main one – but the blanket of despair which has descended feels like it has been overdone.
But for the George Ford kick which hit the post against New Zealand and the Maro Itoje restart fumble against the Wallabies, England would have been two wins from three going into the gimme game against Japan this weekend.
Take a step back and there have been bright individual contributions in the November gloom.
Marcus Smith has been a joy. He is edging towards world class now. Will Stuart has debunked the theory the only tight-head prop worth his salt in England is 37. Chandler Cunningham-South was outstanding in the back row against the All Blacks; Sam Underhill, likewise, against the Springboks.
Had this autumn’s schedule been assembled in a different order with Japan first up, there is every chance England would have won the majority of them. With the added cohesion of a game against the Brave Blossoms under their belts – as New Zealand enjoyed – England could well have taken down the All Blacks.
Put the New Zealand scalp in the back pocket and the confidence lift sees them beat Australia; trouser three wins in a row and they run double world champions South Africa even closer.
Ifs, buts and maybes? Absolutely, but the point remains valid that England are near enough to the southern hemisphere giants for small alterations to make a big difference to the outcomes.
Of course, if they get themselves into position England will still have to get over their stage fright when it comes to closing out games but, given they managed to do so against the Irish earlier this year with Smith’s late drop goal, it is not beyond them
As it is of course, a closing win for England against Eddie Jones’s Japan will make no difference whatsoever to the negative narrative. It is too late to change the vibe.
England will go into the Six Nations under a cloud – third favourites behind Ireland and France who they face in their opening two fixtures of the championship. Is 2025 a lost cause already then? You might think so from the mood music.
Why, though?
Ireland have not looked significantly better than England this autumn; France have lost at Twickenham nine times in their past ten visits. It is not the ravings of a madman to make a case for England winning four of their matches and being involved in a title race.
They will hope to have Alex Mitchell, who has been a big miss at scrum-half this autumn, back by then. If they can have a fit Tom Curry and Manny Feyi-Waboso – both of whom have also been sidelined for part of this campaign – England will be a handful.
They will have a defence coach in Joe El-Abd who will then have a proper idea of what Test rugby is all about and a skills coach Kevin Sinfield who will be back with the squad on a more regular basis.
Of course, if they get themselves into position England will still have to get over their stage fright when it comes to closing out games but, given they managed to do so against the Irish earlier this year with Smith’s late drop goal, it is not beyond them. Maybe they try something creative like putting Jamie George on the bench and bringing him on to lead the side in the last quarter.
The fact is England, for all the doom and gloom, still have some very good rugby players. And coming over the horizon are some special talents from the world title-winning under-20s squad, spearheaded by Northampton back-row Henry Pollock. He is still eligible for the age group side but after an impressive performance for England A in the victory over Australia A last weekend, he has a bigger stage beckoning.
It has been reported Steve Borthwick has his sights on bringing another of that successful U20s side, Junior Kpoku, back to England from France, using the lure of an enhanced EPS contract. Likewise Henry Arundell, his super-rapid clubmate at Racing 92, who scored five tries for England against Chile at last year’s World Cup. If Borthwick can land the pair of them and make them eligible for England selection it would add further to his stocks.
Borthwick is under the cosh – his job is to win Test matches and if he doesn’t beat Japan this weekend he cannot survive – but England will win and by some distance. When they start afresh in 2025, the losing streak snapped, do not be surprised if Borthwick’s stumblers begin to find their stride.
For England to consistently win against the very best we need to do the following.
1. RFU must scrape the eligibility rules, Englands coach must be able to pick all players regardless of where they play.
2. SB and coaching team must improve their coaching, selection and impact/substitutions.
3. England need to change their captain, young props to be given game time, inside centre to be introduced along with a younger fast fullback.
Winning 2025 6 nations must be achieved or a complete reset must happen.
England have all the makings of a good team. We know that, and we have known that for years (including when Eddie was delivering disappointing results). But sometimes the positive comments about under-performing teams sound like describing a darts player as "fantastic, aside from their accuracy".
Its a trivial observation to say that scoring more points and preventing more points against you would result in better outcomes. And points difference does not mean much either, as it is generally less than 5 points with top teams. Usain Bolt would win the 100m sprint by 200 milliseconds (approximately two blinks of an eye), but that doesn't mean the others could easily beat him.
Also, these kinds of analyses tend to talk about how the team in question would just need to do X, Y and Z to win, but assume that opponents don't make any changes themselves. This is nonsense, as it is always the case that both teams go away with a list of work-ons. If we're going to think about what would have happened if team A had made that tackle, kicked that goal or avoided that penalty, the n let's think about what would have happened if team B had passed to that overlap, avoided that card, or executed that lineout maul.
There are lots of things that England can focus on for improvement, but for me the main observation is that they have not been able to raise their game when it matters. Playing your best game when it counts is what makes champions, and England have not shown that. And, for me, that's a coaching thing.
I expected Borthwick to build a basics-first, conservative culture, minimizing mistakes, staying in the game, and squeezing out wins against fancier opponents and game plans. It's not that he isn't building something, but it has taken disappointingly long, not least if you compare it to Australia since Schmidt took over, or SA after Rassie took over.
Agreed. The outpouring of negativity is getting a bit hysterical. It’s not like England are getting hammered on the scoreboard. They’re staying in the fight, but seem unable to either sustain the energy needed or find the knockout blow.
Though I’m in the glass half full camp, one area I am concerned about is whether England’s overall strategy i.e. Borthwick’s assertion that the game plan is to ‘move the ball’ coupled with a (ragged) blitz defense are incompatible in that this approach places to great an aerobic demand on the players.
Moving the ball implies attacking quickly through the backs to find the edge or sprinting onto grubbers. Blitzing then adds further aerobic demands on the backs with constant shuttle runs when not in possession. Together, players are at a near constant state of plyometric capacity and which in my opinion, is why we’re seeing a performance drop off in the final quarter.
Agree. I think losing Felix Jones was a bit of a loss, not just blanket defence but in reading opposition attack (in order to defend). They will close that expertize gap but it was there in the Autumn.