Back in 2022, New Zealanders had a profound sense that the All Blacks were facing an unprecedentedly tough start to the year with three Tests against Ireland in July and then back-to-back Tests against the Springboks in South Africa.
It was by no means a difficult sales job getting the public to realise the danger that lay ahead. Ireland had beaten the All Blacks in late November 2021 and had won three of their last five encounters against New Zealand.
And the difficulty of playing the world champion Boks on their home patch hardly needed to be explained, so when the All Blacks came through those opening five games with just two wins, the nation was disappointed but not surprised.
That level of disappointment led to two assistant All Blacks coaches being sacked, head coach Ian Foster almost being sacked, and the year – New Zealand finished with nine wins, one draw and four defeats – widely deemed to be catastrophic.
What’s never been determined is whether the public, media and administrative backlash against Foster and his coaching team in 2022 was a cause or a symptom of the marketing hype that built up those opening five Tests.
Potentially, an answer to that question may come in 2025 as the All Blacks are facing an equally difficult, if not harder, season than the one they did three years ago, but not everyone seems to realise that just yet.
The All Blacks will kick off with a three-Test series against the French, which has been devalued in the minds of Kiwi fans after France head coach Fabien Galthié said in June last year that he will be leaving up to 20 of his best players at home.
France have delivered one of the most compelling Six Nations campaigns in the last two decades… and Kiwis have barely noticed.
New Zealanders heard that and jumped to the conclusion that the All Blacks would be facing a French team that they couldn’t possibly lose to.
How serious would the challenge be if the French were leaving that many players at home? As is often the way in New Zealand, the typical rugby fan pays little attention to what’s happening in the Six Nations, and the rugby fraternity does not appear to understand the strength in depth the French have built and continues to vastly underrate the quality of the squad that the All Blacks will be facing.
France have delivered one of the most compelling Six Nations campaigns in the last two decades – produced incredible power-based rugby that has come with a heavy twist of Gallic flair – and Kiwis have barely noticed.
Few rugby followers in New Zealand appreciated the brilliance of the French, who played a brand of rugby the All Blacks aspire to but haven’t found the quality of personnel or depth of understanding to master.
And Kiwis have missed entirely the fact that France have beaten the All Blacks on the last three occasions the two sides have met, and that the former has used 38 players in the process.
France could leave 40 players at home in July and still be a serious contender, but Galthié’s strategic mention that he intends to sabotage his own selections has sown a powerful message into the narrative that this is a series the All Blacks are 100 per cent expected to win.
Imagine how feral the nation will be if Robertson’s All Blacks lose to what is supposedly going to be a French ‘B’ team?
And because the Kiwi public and media now have a seemingly fixed view about this series being a virtual gimme, the All Blacks not only need to win it, but they need to hammer the French three times if they are to live up to expectation.
All Blacks coach Scott Robertson won’t be so silly as to underestimate the French, but he won’t love that public expectation has been shaped the way it has.
The country turned septic on Foster for losing a series to what was arguably the best Irish side in history and one that may not have been ranked number one in the world when they arrived, but were by the time they left.
Imagine how feral the nation will be if Robertson’s All Blacks lose to what is supposedly going to be a French ‘B’ team?
It’s almost like Robertson can’t win now, because even if the All Blacks sweep the series, it will be merely delivering what everyone saw as a minimum requirement.
And he won’t have much faith either that the narrative will be reshaped in the wake of France winning the Six Nations, despite the fact a few New Zealand pundits are catching on to just how good Les Bleus actually are.
All the pressure now sits on the All Blacks, and France, having already been written off, are effectively coming to New Zealand to have a free hit at making history.
Former All Black Stephen Donald, speaking on Sky’s The Breakdown, said: “We don’t know who’s coming down [on tour], but it was one of the most impressive French performances since there was all the hype around them.
“They absolutely dismantled Ireland. You talk about players who we might not know of – well I still couldn’t tell you the names of them – but the forwards coming off the bench just kept rolling through Ireland. They dismantled Ireland physically.
“We know how organised and structured Ireland are and how slick they are with ball in hand – well France took them out of it. They took them out of it physically and then Ireland didn’t have too many places to go to.”
All the pressure now sits on the All Blacks, and France, having already been written off, are effectively coming to New Zealand to have a free hit at making history.
Starting the 2025 season against a dangerous French team will be as hard as the three-Test series the 2022 All Blacks endured against Ireland.
But where the danger factor seems higher still for the 2025 All Blacks is that they must then head to Argentina for two Tests – a tricky but winnable assignment – before returning to New Zealand and taking on the Springboks in successive weekends.
The All Blacks of 2022 lost three of their first five tests, and four of their first seven and such a scenario repeating in 2025 is not inconceivable, because the Boks are clearly going to come highly motivated to end New Zealand’s 31-year unbeaten run at Eden Park.
None of this is an attempt to predict the future, or to write off the All Blacks as a failing franchise, but to merely highlight the difficulty of what lies ahead and the lack of wider acknowledgement about how tough 2025 is going to be.
The real kicker, perhaps, in all this is that the Wallabies are also likely to present a much stiffer challenge come late September and early October when the Bledisloe Cup is played, and with Tests to follow against Ireland, Scotland and England, the only absolute sitter for the All Blacks will be their last match in Cardiff.
The new reality for the All Blacks, given the improved relative strength of the top eight nations, is that a 70 per cent win ratio is a solid return.
It is of course entirely possible that the All Blacks will sweep through the year in majestic fashion and win the lot, but what seems more likely is that by the end of this year, the events of 2022 may have to be reconsidered and regraded as less catastrophic.
The old days of the All Blacks winning 90 per cent of their Tests over a World Cup cycle and going through an entire calendar year unbeaten, as they did in 2013, are long gone.
The new reality for the All Blacks, given the improved relative strength of the top eight nations, is that a 70 per cent win ratio is a solid return.
Even last year there was evidence to cast 2022 in a different light. The All Blacks lost four Tests in 2024 – the same number they did in 2022 – and yet there was an element of Robertson being given some leeway given it was his first year at the helm.
But if the results have a similar hue in 2025, the country will need to decide whether to start agitating for changes in the same way it did in 2022, or be prepared to reconsider what an acceptable win ratio benchmark is for the All Blacks in the current era.
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Oh Puhlease. ‘Contenders’? If they truly rest all of their stars then it will be a 3-0 blackwash with at least 2 thumpings.
Probably will leave all tolouse, bordeaux/toulon players at home depending on who get to final.
could look something like
1. Reda Wardi
2. Maxine Lamothe
3. Georges Henri Colombe
4. Mickael Guillard
5. Romain Taofifenua
6. Oscar Jegou
7. Paul Boudehent
8. Gregory Alldritt
9. Nolann Le Garrec
10. Leo Berdeu
11. Lester Etien
12. Jonathon Danty
13. Emillien Gailleton
14. Theo Attisogbe
15. Leo Barre
16. Gaetan Barlot
17. Girogi Beria
18. Tevita Tatafu
19. Hugo Auradou
20. Esteban Abadie
21. Ibrahim Diallo
22. Baptiste Serin
23. Gael Drean
REST OF SQUAD
Dany Priso
Rabah Slimani
Matthias Halagahu
Posolo Tuilagi
Baptiste Coullioud
Antoine Frisch
Gabin Villière
Melvyn Jaminet
I am not sure for Aldritt or Boudehent, maybe Fickou. Galthie will probably pick some U20 too despite U20 WC, like the other years.
This is no disrespect from France. Our key players just play way too much, much more that any other team (in NH at least). It wouldn't be safe for them to play 3 more games at the highest level on the other side of the world. And I’m not sure that exhausted “premium players” would do better that “fresh” young lads.
They don’t play any more than anyone else.
That old chestnut has been found out in some Nick Bishop articles if you’re interested.
Currently the players Top 14 sides look to be rest/not using in demand players more than France. It’s all well and good and a huge improvement in player management I understand but it’s all because of the underlying problem of the length of the Top 14, not player minutes. They simply don’t get more than a months holiday and thats totally absurd. Crap, it might actually be they only get a months holiday if they don’t play in July, can’t quite remember.
You really don’t understand the French dilemma at all do you. These ‘fresh’ players you speak are the ones that need the rest, not the “premium players”. They are simply not cared about because they are not the top 20 that are critical to France’s success.
Premium players will be roasted players…
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“Galthié’s strategic mention that he intends to sabotage his own selections“
Galthie has no say in this, the decision is driven by the LNR but whatever happens, the French team won’t be a walkover. The narrative has been set up nicely for NZ to seriously underestimate the challenge. Always a dangerous position…
You keep spouting this, don’t you believe Galthie? Merely a lip boy?
Agree, N'Tamack and other have some opinions but they are like Galthie, they don't decide. Toulouse and Bordeaux are the main employers and the last serious injuries won't incite them to change the FFR LNR agreement. If main players go to NZ ,they will not play for their club more than a game or two in october before the november international tour. I don't think they will be happy to pay players for having not them available . And thanks for unterstanding french situation more than some contributors..
Since Saturday and the end of the Six Nations, several top players (Ntamack, Alldritt for example) have indicated their desire to participate in the tour and they want to find an arrangement with LNR and FFR to somehow tour this summer without miss the TOP 14 finals. I don’t know what will happen, but there is a scenario where the French tour against AB doesn(t feature a “B team” but rather a team with most of its key players (+ some very interesting young prospects Galthié want to test before the next WC). As a French, I would definitely love to see a full strenght French squad this summer.
Well theres certainly no way they can play the first test is there, but if they can just send over a full squad for the first test, and then a second wave after the final, that would be awesome.
At best I think the French fans can hope that players are making their voices known that they are not accepting of how the LNR (though I can’t see how they can be blamed for the dates of the test fixtures) are using them.
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France will leave their top players behind and in doing so will bring their strong bench and second stringers. Their bench strength will be severely depleted to say the least. They may stay in a contest for 50 to 60mins but the AB’s should blow them away in the last 20. Argentina are good and getting better but the AB’s showed on the end of year tour that they are more than capable of matching anyone away from home. The Springboks have a terrible record in NZ and they dont travel well to Australasia. They played well against Aus last year but their squad is ageing. AB’s are favourites at home for that one. Australia will prove a stiffer challenge this year for sure. Reckon the AB’s beat France 3-0 on tour, Take 4 out of 6 in the Rugby Championship and win 3 or all 4 on the end of year tour. AB’s will have an easier year than last and with Robertson will have improved the team. They will surely do better than 2024
I’m looking forward to the Eden Park game, it should be the best contest ever in New Zealand.
Boks prior to Rassie/Nienaber have been poor in NZ, don’t expect that to be the case now.
As for an ageing squad, dream on! Rassie has his finger firmly on that pulse.
All the aging players pretty much still top of the pile and in fine fettle.
Besides the next generation in almost every position has mostly already been identified and getting serious game time.
LH: Ox, Jan Hendrik Wessels and Thomas du Toit
Hkr: Marx, Bongi still playing well, Wessels can play hooker, and some hungry youngsters.
TH: Malherbe still strong, but Wilco, Neethling Fouche, and Koch still good
4L: Eben, Kleyn, Moerat
5L: Mostert still 👌🏻, RG Snyman, Lood, Nortje, JF van Heerden
6: Kolisi still 👌🏻, Kwagga, van Staden
7: PSDT still 👌🏻, Louw, Ruan Venter, Ludwig, Cobus Wiese
8: Wiese, Hanekom, Roos, Francke Horn
9: Williams, Hendrickse, Reinach, vd Bergh
10: Pollard, Mngomezulu, Libbok, Hendrickse
11: Arendse, Moodie
12: DdA still 👌🏻, Esterhuizen, Julius
13: Kriel, Am, Hooker, van Wyk
14: Kolbe, vd Merwe
15: Fassie, Willemse, Quan Horn, Le Roux
Dream on if you think the age is going to help in anyway. Vermeulen was still a beats at 37
Also read up on Aled Walters opinion on age. Age related to conditioning and injuries all change the profile. Some players peak at 30 plus. Regardless age won’t be a relief for Bok opponents.
This author proving he has less of an understanding of rugby than the general population.
The country was septic because of how easily they got beat Paul. The country is smart enough to rate the relative level of performances, and if Razors team goes backwards like Fosters the criticism you suggest might come will be fully deserved. If France B perform as good as France A and win by the same margins then those with the criticism the team should be winning every game will also be deserved. But the inference that the public didn’t give Ireland the credit they deserved couldn’t be further from the truth imo.
And to the vibe of this article, it provides abosolutely zero reason to believe the next 38 best French are going to be as good as these first 38. Paul got one thing right, it’s no joke that France will be leaving behind 40 players.
France have a 45 man squad for 6N (well using Wiki), the team could be made up of these leftovers from the teams not likely to get close to Toulouse and Bordeaux, given that just the third place team is doing commendably well not to be in negative for and against like the rest.
Uini Atonio ——— Prop
Giorgi Beria ——— Prop
Georges-Henri Colombe ———- Prop
Jean-Baptiste Gros ——— Prop
Dany Priso ——— Prop
Rabah Slimani———- Prop
Hugo Auradou ——— Lock
Mickaël Guillard ——— Lock
Matthias Halagahu ——— Lock
Romain Taofifénua ——— Lock
Esteban Abadie ——- Back row
Grégory Alldritt ———- Back row
Paul Boudehent ———- Back row
Oscar Jégou ——— Back row
Nolann Le Garrec ——— Scrum-half
Gaël Fickou ——— Centre
Antoine Frisch ——— Centre
Émilien Gailleton ——— Centre
Noah Nene ——— Centre
Théo Attissogbé ——— Wing
Gaël Dréan ———- Wing
Gabin Villièren —— Wing
Léo Barré ——— Fullback
One wouldn’t think Atonio is going to come (I’d be surprised if Fickou is still not rested or he and Le Garrec aren’t involved in a relegation playoff game) but a few good players there like Leo Barre, Le Garrec, Taofifénua, and that back row, but also a distinct lack of a spine with the 3 best playmakers playing in the Final at home.
What are the possibilities to fill out these missing spots? looking at Opta’s stats hub Serin and Couilloud provide good back up for Le Garrec by fact of having the highest try involvements in the Top14 (along with Michael Ruru). And Serin’s partner Herve looks the most threatening to carry on the teams style with his elusiveness?
Your list is not so bad but we will only know the players available 2 weeks before the first test. If Toulouse or, and, Bordeaux are not in the final, I don't think that the main players will be select because of the number of games they have allready played, but there are very good young players in these two clubs and some of them should be sélected ( Castro Ferreira, Gazzoti, Matiu, Costes, Depoortere….)
Like you, I don't think Atonio will be there, he is 35 and often injuried, but Tatafu was in the 28 in the stands saturday and maybe Bamba will be back from his knee injury he got in Argentina. Aldritt has played a lot too. Fickou was injuried 2 month and maybe he should be in the side, but he has yet played 13 games in top14 and 3 with France. At 10, we should have Berdeu, Le Brun ,or Reus. In 2023 U20 final Reus was better than his opponent Prendergast. Nene is injuried now for some month. And Galthie is used to select in july 2 or 3 U20 despite the U20 WC. Last week he select Brau Boirie in the 42 players for France Scotland.
Last year when he selected Michael Guillard for Argentina, nobody wait such good display from him. So I think ,France should have a good side in July.
time will tell sure they will be a strong french side but the allblacks will be strong as well
If France show total disrespect for NZR and NZ fans then Id be looking at ways to show our dissaproval.😁😁😁🤣🤣😃😁Politely of course Hehe!
1/ Hold the teams officials for 8 hrs at the airport and after full cavity searches, put players into isolation for 2 weeks like COVID days. Cant have those diseased French polluting NZ.
2/ Once out of quarantine, Billit the French out to a school hall… 40 players to a room.
3/Have the hall at a school with a “no alcohol” policy. Even with meals.
4/Have them in an area where there is no outside communication ( no phone reception )
5/Give them “Tuck shop food”
5/Have concrete training fields
7/Have no goalposts at the concrete training fields
8/ Give no rooms for team meetings, except their toilet and change rooms…Under repair from “spillage”
9/ Fly them ALL to matches….. In a tiny plane without legroom. Make the trip a 3 hr scenic tourist flight. NZ is a beautiful country.
10/ NEVER refer to them as the French test side. Call them the French no two’s.
11/ Allow alcohol the night before tests.
12/ Call the Tests “practice matches for the SA tour”
Come on NZ fans…. Return the disrespect if thats what we are shown.😁😁😁
You will never get another team to tour again. As an Irish supporter it was a good achievement for that team to win a test series in NZ. But it put a target on our back for the RWC. Jordan said that NZ strategy a year out turned to beating Ireland given the RWC draw and that tour. It was the right strategy and bar a red card in the final should have earned NZ a RWC title.
But was it worth Ireland’s while in terms of RWC prospects giving NZ that IP on us?
France may be thinking that they have three wins against NZ and giving them a full look at their set up may do more harm than good. As an Irish fan I know that winning that tour did not gain Ireland any respect from NZ fans. The opposite. So I don’t see many clear gains for France sending the A team especially in view of the fact that they have a series win in NZ already.
The French side that arrives in NZ is the top French side. There is no other way to view it. Razor himself, said he is expecting a top French side and will be planning appropriately. To do anything else would be silly and unprofessional. I expect a tough 3 tests against the 3rd ranked nation in the world and will be disappointed if that isnt the case.
They don’t revoke test status just because Dupont is injured and not playing. Though I wish they would for these games.
GP you should read the French rugby media as there have been various articles in the last three days on the NZ tour. Following various journalists questioning on the subject Ntamack (and Aldritt on a certain extent) has declared that he wanted to tour NZ as this was a fantastic opportunity for a rugby player. The debate is now with the FFR and LNR…
Hum, N'Tamack said he should wish playing in NZ , he did'nt said he want and it's not him who decide. If Toulouse is in top14 final he should have a week to flight to NZ and play the 1rst game…
Toulouse have lost two players last week ,PH Barassi for a month and A Dupont for 9 month or a year. I don't think it's the right day to ask them an exception….
the french squad will not pose the same threat as Ireland in 2022.
They will pose a threat for sure but they are not at the same level of that Ireland side and i dont think the ABs will be as bad as they were in 2022.
I am looking forward to ABs being far better this year after a first season under Razor. There is a lot of talent in Nz, probably the best pack since 2015, and we are playing at home.
Razor really needs to show an improved level of play, a coherent gameplan (too all over the place last year), make the most of the talent at his disposal and win (a lot!). The pressure is really on this year to be a dominant All Black side. It is time for the ABs to return to the top of the international game and be recognised as such.
France were very impressive in the six nations, after losing to England, and will bring a talented squad. But they could only beat NZ by a point in November (nz really should have won ) and many of those players wont be present.
Can the French come together to present a challenge to the ABs after a long season? Yes, but they could equally lose 3-0 with a blowout in the last test.
Very well written, I concur 100%