As was the case two years ago, the Wallabies went down to Ireland by three points in Dublin. And as was the case two years ago, the general feeling in Australia about the result is surprisingly upbeat.
There’s still annoyance and frustration, don’t worry. Particularly around the very clear Hugo Keenan kick-chase knock-on in the lead-up to Caelan Doris’s try. There’s not even any doubt about the knock-on; it was so clear, not even a TV director could hide it.
And there is annoyance and frustration that not unlike the 2022 match, the Wallabies had got themselves into a position where a win was very possible. The difference between the top five teams and next five teams is that they know how to convert winning positions into actual wins, and though they may be getting closer, Australia are not there yet.
Though there is clearly a lot of Ireland about the Wallabies game currently – no surprise given Andy Farrell really hasn’t changed the Irish game-plan since succeeding Joe Schmidt – the stats sheets highlight a couple of shortfalls.
Namely, that Australia attacked for the same amount of time, they made more than two hundred fewer metres, and 40 per cent fewer passes. They got away less than half as many offloads as did Ireland as well. Much of that reflects the fact the Wallabies had only 42% of possession, and as a result also conceded fewer turnovers and handling errors.
But interestingly, despite the huge disparity in possession share, Australia only attempted 25 more tackles than the Irish. It felt like the Wallabies spent large chunks of the match defending, yet the tackle stats show that wasn’t the case.
The Wallabies just couldn’t get out of their own half, especially in the second half, and their box-kicks, line kicking and clearances were all lacking significantly in length.
“In the second half probably my one disappointment around the game is that I felt we got quite conservative,” Schmidt pondered post-match.
“When you do that against Ireland and you’re hanging on and you’ve got a four-point lead, you’re hoping that’s enough, but I just think we tried to do that from too far out.
“We started kicking it back or kicking it out and giving them a set-piece to launch from, and… we were having to work very, very hard.”
This plays out in the territory stats, where the Wallabies made 33 kicks to Ireland’s 26, and made nearly 170m more from them.
But with both teams averaging about 25 metres per kick, and Ireland claiming a whopping 69% of territory, this also mirrors what was clear throughout the game: the Wallabies just couldn’t get out of their own half, especially in the second half, and their box-kicks, line kicking and clearances were all lacking significantly in length.
But they still only went down by three. To Ireland, the number two team in the world, in Dublin. Again.
I don’t mind admitting that I remain sceptical of AI content as a rule, so it was pleasantly surprising to read this rather well summarised take on the Wallabies, both of the Ireland result, and of their future prospects.
Under the very reasonable headline, ‘Wallabies Show Promise Under Schmidt Despite Ireland Setback’, X’s in-house AI engine had this to say, based on a summary of posts in the hours after the match.
“The Australian Wallabies, under the guidance of new coach Joe Schmidt, have displayed significant improvement in their rugby prowess this year,” the non-humans began.
“Although they faced a narrow defeat against Ireland in Dublin, ending with a score of 22-19, the match highlighted the team’s resilience and tactical advancements. Key players like [Fraser] McReight and [Jeremy] Williams have been instrumental, particularly in bolstering the team’s defence.
It’s really only the mean-spirited, narrow-minded and the completely delusional now that won’t acknowledge Schmidt’s impact on the Wallabies since their first outing together
“This game, despite the loss, has sparked optimism for the Wallabies’ future, especially with the British and Irish Lions series on the horizon. Discussions have centred around the team’s development, strategic choices such as appointing Wilson as captain, and the overall upward trajectory under Schmidt’s leadership.
“Fans and analysts alike are now setting high expectations for the Wallabies’ upcoming performances, buoyed by Schmidt’s focus on building squad depth for the Lions tour.”
Even if it has been authored by the machines, and even if by quoting them I am effectively legitimising another step towards my own redundancy, it’s a summary that’s difficult to argue with.
The Wallabies have shown promise under Schmidt, great promise in fact. They have displayed significant improvement, and players like McReight and Williams (and more than a few others) have been huge parts of that improvement in 2024.
Their UK tour certainly has sparked optimism, and the expectations have grown over the last month.
It’s really only the mean-spirited, narrow-minded and the completely delusional now that won’t acknowledge Schmidt’s impact on the Wallabies since their first outing together in July, and who refuse to see the clear improvements in Australia now versus the Australia that limped out of the Rugby World Cup last year.
“From last year where Portugal and Georgia were the only scalps, and a number of losses in and around that, and the disappointment of missing out on the play-off stages of the World Cup, I’m heartened by where we’ve got to and determined by what’s in front of us,” Schmidt reflected on Saturday evening.
What’s in front of the Wallabies now is the British and Irish Lions, but the reality is that there is only 80 minutes of Test rugby between now and the first Test in Brisbane on 19 July.
The best Christmas present Rugby Australia could give Wallabies fans would be Schmidt’s signature on a contract extension through to the 2027 Rugby World Cup on home soil.
Any tinkering of patterns and combinations is going to have to happen in Super Rugby Pacific, and with the full co-operation for the four state coaches in Australia. Fortunately, there is a renewed desire among the states to help the Wallabies in a Lions year, and Schmidt freely admits to healthy working relationships already.
There are potential full Wallabies front rows to be built at the Brumbies, Waratahs and Reds. The Queensland back row firing is going to be as important to Schmidt as is the back three and midfield combinations firing for New South Wales.
The Brumbies backline spine of Noah Lolesio, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright is already hugely influential, and that’s without contemplating whether Ikitau’s shift to inside centre should become permanent. Clearly, those healthy working state relationships are going to be crucial.
But perhaps not nearly as crucial as Schmidt remaining with Australian rugby beyond the Lions tour. The best Christmas present Rugby Australia could give Wallabies fans would be Schmidt’s signature on a contract extension through to the 2027 Rugby World Cup on home soil.
Though maybe the career coach within Schmidt is starting to picture what could be achieved in the next few years, too.
“I was proud of the team. I thought they demonstrated a level of grit that you need if you’re going to be competitive with the Lions, and competitive with Ireland, the number two team in the world,” he said.
“I think we made them work pretty hard tonight to get the win.
“We’d love to have got into the mix and got the win ourselves, but at the same time I think from where we started at the end of last November when the boys came back after their break post-World Cup to where we are now, and there’s a bit more confidence in what they’re delivering, they’re a little bit more connected, and there’s still a bit of growth to go I’m hoping.”
If Schmidt’s Ireland is the perfect example of what can be achieved, both domestically and at Test level, then it would be entirely appropriate that he stayed on to see what Schmidt’s Australia can become.
Australian rugby hopes along with you, Joe. And that you’ll stay to see that growth develop into the Wallabies team you think is there.
And mainly because the job is still a long way from being finished. You could even argue that the Lions tour is more of a pre-season, with the bigger task being the next RWC two years further ahead.
But whatever the end date is, it feels important from an Australian rugby perspective that Schmidt remains in place to see it bear fruit.
If Schmidt’s Ireland is the perfect example of what can be achieved, both domestically and at Test level, then it would be entirely appropriate that he stayed on to see what Schmidt’s Australia can become.
Good article, mate. Joe Schmidt likes a quick ruck. He believes in speed over shape. Andy Farrell shares his former boss’s love of short breakdowns, shirking the wrestle, timely cleaning, and nine clearing from the base whilst the defenders are still shifting. But Farrell believes shape can save from slow speed: ornate diamond-shaped midfield pods in which all runners look like carriers, and they can all clean fast. Schmidt knows those patterns can work but has faith, above all else, in speed.
from OptaJonny's stats:
The jump in how many Wallaby rucks last three seconds or less is telling. In the last four seasons, the Wallabies averaged under 60% in rucks under 3 seconds. In 2024, 64% of Wallaby rucks lasted three seconds or less, even whilst the team made the most carries per Test in five years (125 carries a game).
Schmidt abhors mental errors more than he loves feats of skill. In particular, he cannot abide handling errors, and the style of play which tends to cause errors. Offloads (attempted chicken wings) are seen as a major culprit for ball spills. When Schmidt was coaching at Ireland he famously forbade a dozen starters from trying a ‘Sonny Bill.’ The result was that Ireland made only 4.8 offloads per Six Nations matches under Schmidt; almost two lower than anyone else.
The Wallabies averaged 5.4 offloads per 2024 Test, down from 8 under Eddie Jones and 6.7 under Dave Rennie. This resulted in a rate of passing errors of one every 142 passes in 2024 (under Rennie it was one in 87; under Jones one in 67 passes).
Smells like team spirit!
@brett what’s with your headline? Ireland ain’t in the UK pal. Perhaps get an atlas or fix appropriately
Theres no doubt the progress that the Wallabies have made but this next year will be very challenging. 3 tests against the Lions and 2 against the Boks in SA. Add to that a tough Bledisloe and 2 tests against a dangerous Pumas outfit at home and well the challenge becomes clear. Australia have built more steel and some good rugby smarts this year. They are no longer pushovers and it now takes a 15 man, 80 minute effort to beat them. They have improved in the forwards dramatically and have built some great combos and are dangerous over the ball. Their backs are now firing with established options throughout and they have width and ball retention in their game. They have a quiet and strong determination and a hunger to stay in the fight even when on the backfoot for long periods. Its been a successful year for them and they have built belief and rekindled hope. Schmidt has put the systems in place and the players are well versed in his tactics and ideas now. To play and win against a quality Lions behemoth will require more. It requires a mettle and strength of character and belief that exists only at the top end of the game. It is the kind of character and belief that allows one to win matches against top teams despite the odds being stacked against you. The kind of character that wins world cups. The Wallabies are not the complete team yet, they are far from it. They have enough to be competitive with the Lions but probably not enough to beat them. If the Wallabies can get through next year having taken a few big scalps and having endured that rigorous and brutal schedule one feels they will be primed to take on the world in 2027. The Lions are exactly what they need now to test themselves against the best and build the character necessary to deliver an absolute spectacle in 2027.
Aussie had a few opportunities to let it rip but were strangely hesitant. I think they were a bit awed treating Ireland like so many teams do the All Blacks. They need to find that confidence they showed against an opposition like England and they would have pulled off a clearer victory against Ireland.
Schmidt's Ireland crashed and burned at a previous World Cup when he suddenly told them just prior to the Cup he was walking out on them and retiring to go back and help look after his disadvantaged son in NZ.
He obviously wasn't telling the truth. He will do the same to Australia.
A lot of Australians got really enthused about the Wallabies when Australian rugby appointed an Australian coach in Eddie Jones. Someone we could support and believe in. Unfortunately Eddie turned out to be a small, nasty piece of work and a fraud.
However, it showed Australians want to get behind the team when they can identify with it. Which they won't with a kiwi coach. Kiwi coaches are destroying Australian rugby bit by bit just like they have done to Wales.
We don't want a kiwi coach and we don't need one.
They tanked before that.
The difference this time John will be that the team will know Joe's end date from the end of this month. No surprises - just targets.
I am very happy with all our current coaching staff.
"a small, nasty piece of work and a fraud".....interesting comment.
To be fair to Jones ( despite my personal dislike for him) he is more suited to technical and strategic coaching, it's his soft skills that are the issue and failed to get him but in from the media or the team which is key to success.
Imo his selection and non-selection of players was pretty on the money and the right step for Australia to take, doesn't help he was hamstrung by the ARU closing their wallets and delaying to sign more contracts for youngsters. Interestingly Schmidt hasnt had the same response.
Jones was also absolutely crucified for not selecting ageing players like Foley, Hooper and Cooper for the RWC which I feel was wholly justified when they themselves admitted a few months prior to not being in the right 'head space' or 'not loving playing' at that time.
I don't have the stats in front of me but I suspect playing too much rugby in our own half has been a problem all tour and maybe an issue during the Rugby Championship too.
Noah Lolesio getting greater distance on his clearing kicks as well as his kicks for touch from a penalty are obvious work ons for him. His goal kicking has been rock solid though.
Joe has been very transparent around the reason why he's no certainty of staying on post the Lions series but most Wallabies fans would love to see Joe sign on til 2027.
I'd actually wager different Mitch. I think a key improvement under schmidt has been improved game management with improved discipline and shares of territory and possession. It was only until we played ireland and scotland where the script really flipped as they were happy to keep the ball. Noah's kicking has also improved this year but as brett noted in the pod, all the wbs kickers distances have shrunk in the north - maybe fatigue, different ball, not used to the stadium angles well, or a shift in tactics.