It was only a couple of weeks ago ex-Wallaby flanker Jeff Miller branded both Wales and Georgia as sub-par opposition: “Winning three Tests in a row will give the [Australian] men a bit of confidence, but it was really against second-tier teams.” If Joe Schmidt wanted to find out just where his Wallabies stand in the global pecking order, it has become all too painfully apparent after a 30-12 reverse in the second round of the Rugby Championship against South Africa.
They are rubbing shoulders with their July opponents at the bottom of the top 10, and a very long way from seeing eye-to-eye with the top dogs [South Africa, Ireland and New Zealand]. They must even look up to Argentina, Scotland and Italy a few rungs above them.
Australia were fortunate Springbok head coach Rassie Erasmus chose to select 10 players who had played in the one-off Test against European minnows Portugal last month to start the game in Perth.
The Bokke mastermind attempted to dance around the issue in his pre-match comments, but without being able to disentangle himself completely from incendiary words like ‘nonchalant’ and ‘disrespect’, and not before taking as his ultimate point of reference the South African outfit which turned out at the Suncorp, rather than the Wallabies themselves.
A soothing silence would have spoken a lot louder than Rassie’s verbal placebo:
“We won the World Cup [in 2023], but it’s probably important to win the Rugby Championship and build into the next World Cup.
“This is not disrespect to Australia and this is not us feeling nonchalant about the game. This is us picking a team we feel is good enough to still get us the win against a tough Wallabies team that wants to bounce back.
“I think if this week’s team played against the Springbok team that beat the Wallabies last week [in Brisbane], they would give them a hell of a go.”
And Rassie was right. Over the past two weeks, the Springboks have beaten the Wallabies away from home, with two very different starting XVs, by a grand total of 63 points to 19, and by nine tries to one.
At the same time, there remains a nagging feeling the purposes of Rugby Australia and Wallabies’ new coach Schmidt have yet to move into a state of clear-cut alignment. Sydney Rooster Joseph Aukuso-Suaali’i is on his way from the NRL, and rumoured to be on the fast-track into the national squad in time for the 2024 end-of-year tour, while teenage sensation Max Jorgensen was rushed into Saturday’s matchday 23.
RA offered Suaali’i a one-year deal worth AUD $1.6m to jump the barricades, then had to shell out another reported AUD $1.6m over three years to keep Jorgensen from moving the other way, to the same club. That is an awful lot of money for an avowedly cash-strapped union to throw at two outside backs who are unproven at any level of the professional game.
It also ignores the two areas which will most concern Schmidt in the aftermath of the double-header against the world champions. The twin super-strengths of any Schmidt-mentored side are a superior kicking game and watertight ball-retention in contact, and at present his Wallabies possess neither.
The Kiwi’s frustration began to show in his post-match comments:
“We couldn’t just have a toe-to-toe battle with them. So, in our effort to do that, we undid ourselves a little bit, maybe over-kicking or trying too hard to get the ball into some space.
“Because not only are they very physical up front, but they are very tough with their speed in space.
“Even trying to combat a Springbok maul with a fully-fit pack is tough enough. With a little bit of half a pack, it became very difficult. And then we ended up [with] Seru Uru getting sin-binned. That is a really big ask.”
Read between the lines and the priorities are crystal clear: kicking game, physicality in contact, driving lineout defence. The Springboks scored three second-half driving lineout tries in the torrential Western Australian rain, and – hard as Lukhan Salakaia-Loto tried – the home side sorely missed the presence of the best individual maul defender on planet rugby.
The Will Skelton ship appears to have sailed, with Top 14 clubs now into the third week of their preparation for the season to come, and the big man’s head well and truly embedded in la mêlée. Ronan O’Gara’s coaching fingers are becoming increasingly sticky as the start of the French domestic season on 7th September approaches.
The kicking game should be seen through the lens of overall backline selection. At 15 Tom Wright is needed to provide playmaking support to Noah Lolesio, but he is a full-back who prefers to run rather than kick, and power-wing Marika Koroibete is cast from the same mould. With Hunter Paisami’s contribution largely confined to shorter attacking kicks, the reasoning behind the selection of 34-year-old veteran Nic White at scrum-half became obvious. There is simply no-one else in Australia with the strategic nous to control a game with the boot like ‘Whitey’.
In Perth, the Wallaby kicking game offered a succession of countering chances to the South African return team in the first quarter.
Wright correctly assesses he can beat the first flying chaser and set up an opportunity for Koroibete down the left, but when the wing chooses to kick ahead rather than keep ball in hand the tables are suddenly turned. Cheslin Kolbe is the last man you want to see returning kicks in a broken field, and only an uncharacteristic handling mistake by Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu spoils a straightforward scoring chance. On any other given Sunday, the Stormer catches that pass and walks in.
Almost immediately afterwards, Lolesio gave South Africa’s left wing Makazole Mapimpi another gilt-edged opportunity from a first-phase cross-kick.
Opponents have been trying to exploit the positioning of the man called ‘Mapimps’ ever since Richie Mo’unga tormented him with the kick-pass at the 2019 World Cup five years ago, but the Springboks’ backfield positioning throughout the game suggested the lesson had been well-learned.
On this occasion Wright’s cross-kick goes to the other side, but the catcher [number 15 Aphelele Fassi] has already dropped off to receive it rather than jamming in as the outside ‘horn’ on the defensive edge. With Kolbe and Lukhanyo Am scrambling back in enthusiastic support, three of South Africa’s most dangerous men are concentrated in a thinly-defended area.
The Australian kicking game presented more of opportunities for the visitors than the home side as the game unwound in the wet.
Len Ikitau’s grubber through goes straight into Kolbe’s catching ‘mitt’, and the Wallabies find themselves tumbling back downfield, with the little magician failing to win 50-22 turnover by a matter of inches.
South Africa were equally well-prepared to punch some meaningful holes in Australia’s ruck retention when they looked to keep the ball.
Lolesio is static when he makes a telegraphed pass to Angus Blyth, and that encourages Feinberg-Mngomezulu to rush up and force the play back inside, where new Springbok rake Johan Grobbelaar [in the white hat] is waiting. The Bulls hooker is one of the most refined connoisseurs of the breakdown pilfer in the URC.
One of the non-negotiables in any ball-control offence is ‘power-and-placement’ from the 12, and an accurate first cleanout from the seven chasing him into the first ruck. In 2021, the Wallabies had Michael Hooper cleaning out over the top of dominant carries by Samu Kerevi, and they beat the Springboks twice in two weeks. Three years later, the work of Hunter Paisami and Carlo Tizzano left more to be desired.
Paisami struggles forward for a few extra post-contact metres but loses the ball in the process, and the Boks are geared to counter with the turnover ball, leading ultimately to a long kick-and-chase try by Fassi down the left.
The carry-and-clean link between Paisami and Tizzano was a problem one week before at Suncorp.
Paisami makes a second move on the ground after first contact, and Tizzano flops straight on top of the ball-carrier in his attempt to save a turnover. Referee Luke Pearce had a choice of two penalties against Australia within the same piece of action.
Over the two games, Tizzano gave up three penalties for the same indiscretion.
The Western Force flanker is clearly nervous about the presence of Grobbelaar nearby and goes straight to ground in his efforts to protect the ball.
There are plenty of issues for Schmidt to resolve before the next pair of matches against the Pumas in La Plata and Santa Fe at the end of the month. It is unlikely Skelton [or any other French-based player] will be available for selection for the remainder of the Rugby Championship, and that weakens his maul defence from lineout. If you can’t defend lineout drives, you cannot stop opponents scoring from entries to your 22m zone.
The Wallaby kicking game is nowhere near the standard Schmidt enjoyed during his time in Ireland. Back then, he had Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton in the halves, and Rob Kearney’s educated left boot at the back. Now his kicking options in all three spots are far less varied, and far less certain in outcome.
Likewise, the art of ball control at the breakdown is something he is having to teach from virtual scratch. It used to be one of Australia’s greatest strongpoints but now it is just another part of the rebuild. The French novelist Albert Camus once wrote: “Men must live and create. Live to the point of tears.” There will be plenty for Schmidt and his staff over the coming months and there is no shame in it. Shed the tears before any more talk of climbing the tiers.
I had a look into past TRC results to get an idea on whether Aussie do actually bounce back well as I had thought they've done for decades. Apart from a few Bledisloes were NZ already had the Cup wrapped up during TRC round robin games, the majority of my concept about Aussie always having bounced back from these bad losses in the past were actually their games against SA.
Now that SA aren't those easy beats anymore Australia are fighting to not be bottom of the comp, rather than the next best team after the All Blacks. This is not really a change in proceedings for them, it is more of a reflection of SA, so I think this article still hasn't moved past the stage of denial that Australia's situation is any different to normal.
One was definitely hoping for a bit more cohesion, but was it surprising we didn't really see any? You would call it a settled side now if it weren't for the injuries. That midfield had been such a strength though, I'm not surprised theres a case of what-could-have-been's from their supporters. Ultimately I think Argentina have added to their play with better coaching and input from varying environments recently and are a true top 4 team, so Aussie will have to take what small victories they can, like keeping the game close despite everything being against them. Not worry too much about resolving the big issues, that will just set back progress. Forget the results and work on what needs to be worked on for the Lions tour.
This year is about 'saving' and going all in next year. Obviously that is going to revolve around overseas players making a commitment, I would love for that to mean returning stars playing against the Lions warm up games, for their State of choice, and perhaps a fully fledged Australian Barbarians side (a sanctioned second team so players have to be released from their clubs) of overseas players for the missing Rebels (fitting name) game. I don't really see the need to even bring overseas players in for this years November games, but perhaps that would make sense to use these as well. Otherwise, just building to peak for the third test at least would be a respectable effort and do the tour and its fans justice. If the proposed question of how they can return to the top tier was supposed to be a long term picture, then players transitioning to Japan instead of europe would be the obvious one. I don't know if the shorter Japanese season really makes it any easier for the SA balancing act, so I wouldn't be surprised to see their players woed by europe more and basically swap with Australia's.
So otherwise, and aside from just having a big investor in SR like amazon, CVC, or Silver Lake, there is no detriment to fighting it out to be the best of the rest, like theyve been doing for the last two decades in TRC. Though while Wales showed themselves to be on par with England, Italy, Scotland, and France for 60 minutes, that still doesn't mean they don't have to raise their standards themselves to match the likes of Argentina.
Translates as: "I haven't moved past the stage of denial about the decline of Super Rugby".
Try to listen - at least the Aussie voices here who are telling you otherwise.
Your view of Wales is likewise medieval. Wales are nowhere near being on a par with France, England or even Scotland and Italy.
Howzit Nick! Off to SA next week for 11-12 days and will be at Ellis Park and home in Cape Town. Tony Brown’s attack scheme (which bunched Bok backs in little diamond shapes midfield) has generated a higher number of chances (I saw it as 9 of 16 clear chances converted) and even though you’d want to turn 90% of those into tries instead of half or so, other sports you and I follow (NFL, NBA) but also football football (shots on goal) focus now on maxing out snaps, shots taken, and 3s attempted. So we work on increasing the numerator but by Jove we sort of focus even more on creating chances in the first place. Great article man!
Very interesting HJ. Switching from narrow bore to wide bore.
Hi Hazza.
Enjoy those two Tests up north and on the Cape!
The key to the shapes is that they have a man who knows how to exploit them in SFM. I think Manie could too but not so sure it would all tick over with Handre still at the helm...
Grim reading Nick but a case well made. Maybe a blessing in disguise losing Piasami? Doesn’t seem to add much to those around him.
The overarching issue with many of the work-ons seems to come down not to lack of effort but distributing effort in the wrong places. I suppose doing that well is the mark of an expert.
#12 looking like a black hole now with big Kev out of fitness and Lalakai Foketi out of favour... I gues they will have to shift Lenny inside now.
A galling part of Saturday night Nick was I'm not sure the Boks were that good and yet they still had our measure.
They blew three clear chances in the first half alone M, and most of that side started v Portugal. I think it tells you how Rassie rated the WB challenge after the first game.
SA really need to work on this butchering of tries. They will win both tests against the ABs but not if they keep blowing those moments.
Meanwhile I'm still basking in the southern glow of Otago's victory against Auckland in the NPC. Fabian Holland made a real nuisance of himself at the breakdown.
They did blow some big ones, thogh something tells me we'll see far more tries than handling mistakes from SFM as his career progresses!
The English media are licking their lips thinking about the 2025 British & Irish Lions Series.
All will be expecting an unbeaten tour to Australia.
Too early to say as yet Wayne. But the signs are that Joe will have to make an awful lot of improvement to compete, and only has 8-9 games before they arrive!