LONG READ How England can upset Irish apple cart

Hold the confetti, don’t pop the champagne corks, leave the booking of an open-top bus for another day. Ireland’s advance towards a second-straight Grand Slam may look inevitable, but there is every chance for England to upset the apple cart when the two nations meet at Twickenham this weekend.

If the old aphorism that ‘styles make fights’ has any residual truth, then the men in white have just the right style to make life extremely awkward for Ireland. In fact, they have done just that for the past two seasons: they were only 10-9 down after an hour in Dublin in 2023, despite losing Freddie Steward to an unfortunate red card just before half-time. They had played all but 82 seconds of the game the year before without Bath lock Charlie Ewels. Even with 14 men, England were well in touch at the 60-minute mark at 15-15, only for Ireland to pull away in the final stages.

If England can keep a full complement of players on the field, they are in with a genuine shout of turning the odds on the casino. The England players are unlikely to be experiencing any psychological inferiority complex, given they have been competing short-handed for 118 out of 160 minutes, and so it will become motivational fuel instead. That is how negatives become positive mental anchors.

The frustrations of defeat at Murrayfield will only pour gasoline on the open furnace of perceived inequities against Ireland. England coach Steve Borthwick expressed those frustrations after the game.

“After a defeat, and performance where you don’t think you’ve maximised your potential, it’s always disappointment.

“We’d all love progression to be a nice linear path but ultimately it’s not, especially when you are trying to do it at this level. What you saw is a team that is trying to develop, a team that is trying to add layers to their game.”

Borthwick was right in everything he said. England didn’t maximise their potential – [but there is much more in their tank]. England made too many turnovers which led to Scottish scores directly – [their game is developing quicker in defence than attack]. Development is a staircase – [they might just be ready to jump to the next level].

It did not sound as if Borthwick’s opposite number Gregor Townsend was simply mouthing soundbites when he commented: “I thought England were hugely competitive. They started with an intensity in their defence, and [in their] contact [work].

“They were getting quick ball and scored 10 points. They kept competing hard at the breakdown and set-piece, so a lot of credit goes to our forwards.

“England are a very good team with a strong pack, and while it wasn’t the cleanest of games at times, it was really intense. A proper Calcutta Cup fixture.”

Why can England make a fight of it against Ireland? The reigning champions have the highest proportion of active time-in-possession [22.5 minutes per game], building the most average rucks [116] with the highest ratio of lightning quick ball [63%]. They score the most tries from lineout [13 out of 15], and they are multi-phase, converting 60% of their tries after third phase.

How can England hope to compete with those stats? The hosts have the lowest ratio of tries allowed from lineout [25%], coupled with the lowest average number of rucks allowed to an opponent [75 per game]. Only two of England’s eight tries have been conceded after third phase. Their Felix Jones-manufactured defence has allowed the slowest average ruck delivery [a paltry 4.8 seconds per ruck] and the lowest ratio of LQB [43%] permitted to any opponent in the championship. England are currently the only team allowing a sub-50% percentage of 1-3 second rucks to the opposition.

English defensive trumps therefore tend to land directly on top of the KPIs of Ireland’s attack. Andy Farrell’s side builds their rhythm through ruck control and long phase-counts, looking for width early. England’s defence will tend to break up that rhythm, suffocate the width and force the game back to source, and they have always been well-equipped for a set-piece battle. Just for good measure, they have a penalty-winning scrum; +3 penalties in the championship thus far versus Ireland’s overall count of -1 at the set-piece. It promises to be the most fascinating chess game of the entire championship.

In the first half in Edinburgh, seven of Scotland’s eight attacking platforms [from their own 40m line outwards] ended in turnover, the other in a first-phase try from scrum. Even by full-time, Scotland had scored two tries from 16 primary attacking possessions, with four balls kicked away and 10 lost to turnover.

The major problem for England is their attack is far less coordinated than their defence, and is haemorrhaging the points their D denies. Tighten down those nuts and bolts, and Jones’ defence promises to create problems for Ireland. It is likely to be especially strong from lineout, the major Irish attacking platform.

The first hurdle is beating Maro Itoje and Olly Chessum in the air [in the first example]; the second, moving the ball forward at mauls [in the second instance]. The third is how to navigate the defensive web spun by England’s two natural open-sides, Sam Underhill and Ben Earl – plus 10 George Ford – in midfield on those occasions when the ball does emerge from set-piece. Although it is Scotland’s two most powerful backs taking contact [Duhan van der Merwe and Sione Tuipulotu], the combination of Earl tackling and Underhill jackaling is entirely too much for the home cleanout.

The actions of Ford offer a great read on Jones’ changes to the English defensive pattern.

Another excellent attacking lineout platform breaks down on the very first phase. Ford’s movements are key: instead of drifting back to the short side edge as he might have done in a more conservative defence, he sticks close to the ruck and attacks Scotland’s acting half-back: it is all about stopping the play at source, and disrupting it as early as possible.

There were also some definite signals England are beginning to read the key receivers much more actively than they were in the opening round against Italy.

In the two ‘live’ clips, England centre Henry Slade only has eyes for Finn Russell and pours straight through on to the Scotland magician, whatever the depth of his positioning, while in the screenshot England have correctly identified the twin Scotland receivers at the gain line and pushed out on to both of them.

With lineout and long phase counts ruled out, Scotland’s scores came from first-phase scrums, or quick turnover strikes after England had coughed up possession.

In the first clip Ford is probably misaligned inside the Scotland first receiver, number 12 Tuipolutu, and that allows the hosts to work a three-on-two over the two English centres. In the second pressure on D has forced a blocked-down kick from Russell only for Cameron Redpath to bust through the chase, straight up the middle of the paddock. Even after such a deep break, England – in the person of Maro Itoje – are still trying to rush off the edge short-handed, leaving ample space for the kick-pass to Van der Merwe from Scotland’s visionary fly-half.

If they can cut out the errors with ball in hand – even if it means returning to the risk-averse formula which was almost enough to tip over the Springboks in a World Cup semi-final – England can play a landmark game of rugby against the Grand Slammers-elect.

Irish half-backs Jamison Gibson-Park and young Jack Crowley will come under pressure they have not experienced in the championship until now, and it will affect everything that happens outside them. Ireland’s will to find space on the field will meet England’s desire to smother it, and that will set the tone for the most intriguing tactical battle of the Six Nations.

A win for Ireland, and the festive procession can continue. A victory for England, and all the ancient tribal rivalries, red in tooth and claw, will stalk the final weekend of the tournament.