It has been a bumpy season for the All Blacks, one seemingly filled exclusively with erratic performances that have led to modest results. The record of five wins from eight Tests is so-so, but the bigger concern for the media and public alike has been the lack of emphatic performances.
There was a memorably good 40-minute blitz to blow Argentina away at Eden Park, and in the first 20 minutes against Australia in Sydney, the All Blacks scored three tries in 16 minutes and were threatening to run up the sort of scoreline that would have left the Wallabies humiliated.
But in both those games, the All Blacks lost their way in the second half, just as they did in their two Tests against South Africa, and to some extent, when they played England in July.
For a team that has built its reputation on being ruthless, merciless even, these eight performances to date in 2024 have left a nation feeling underwhelmed.
The angst is understandable – New Zealanders are used to not only seeing the All Blacks win, but mostly doing so with high-intensity, high-skill performances.
But this angst is perhaps preventing everyone from seeing that the foundations of a good World Cup 2027 team are being laid.
In the last month or so, a handful of young, potential superstars have emerged – players who by 2027, may be best in the world in their respective positions.
It’s not all doom and gloom, therefore, but it may be hard for the All Blacks coaching group to sell the public a narrative of rebuilding and success lying in the future and not the present.
Building the next generation has always been a tricky business for All Blacks coaches, because they are under intense and consistent pressure to maintain a winning record, and have no licence from either the public or their employer to lose today to enable them to win tomorrow.
The deal for All Blacks coaches is win today and win tomorrow, which is a philosophy that they alone follow, and one that can be seen by comparing their record in the last two World Cup cycles with the Springboks.
Between 2016 and 2019 (not including the World Cup), the All Blacks won 87 per cent of their Tests; and between 2020 and 2023 (not including the World Cup) they won 68 per cent of their Tests.
The 68 per cent win ratio in the last cycle was bad enough to see then coach Ian Foster almost fired, and so the All Blacks don’t have the luxury of building a team to mature over four years to win the World Cup the way the Springboks seemingly do.
The Springboks between 2016 and 2019 (not including the World Cup) won 49 per cent of their Tests; and between 2021 (they didn’t play in 2020 due to Covid) and 2023 (not including the World Cup), they won 65 per cent of their Tests.
The Springboks won both the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, but their success ratio in between tournaments would never have washed with the New Zealand public had it been the All Blacks producing those numbers.
The 68 per cent win ratio in the last cycle was bad enough to see then coach Ian Foster almost fired, and so the All Blacks don’t have the luxury of building a team to mature over four years to win the World Cup the way the Springboks seemingly do.
This try was perfection 👌#AllBlacks #SAPBestRun pic.twitter.com/2FPGrbbrXy
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) September 23, 2024
New Zealand wouldn’t put up with a 50 per cent win ratio in a World Cup cycle even if they were crowned world champions at the end of it and the challenge for head coach Scott Robertson is to lift his current 62 per cent success rate and yet keep building a team that will peak in 2027.
And there are clear signs that he’s got the basis of a team that can do the latter as the big improvers and stars of the show in 2024 have been young men such as Tupou Vaa’i, Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Caleb Clarke and Tamaiti Williams – all of whom are 25 or younger.
Vai’i, who was first capped in 2020, can’t exactly be called a find, but he’s advanced incredibly this year as a result of winning regular game time due to the retirements of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick.
Prior to this year, Vai’i had done little to suggest he’d be so prominent and influential if given the chance, but he’s suddenly found the ability to clear big men out of rucks, become a disruptive lineout operator, carry with punch, get around the park and tackle well.
Tupou is right up there with the world’s best. And it’s a real credit to him. He’s becoming a man, I guess. And you know, his future is all still in front of him, that’s for sure.
Jason Ryan
He’s arguably outshone captain Scott Barrett as the best lock on view and at 24, there is some excitement building as to how good he might be in 2027.
Forwards coach Jason Ryan, not prone to talking any young forwards up, broke that habit when he was asked to assess Vai’i’s season ahead of the first Bledisloe clash.
“I think he’s probably been one of the in-form All Black forwards, in his area, in this test season.
“It’s a continuation, he had great form for the Chiefs. And he’s well established in the Test arena now.
“And he’s right up there with the world’s best. And it’s a real credit to him. He’s becoming a man, I guess. And you know, his future is all still in front of him, that’s for sure.”
Wallace Sititi is another young forward overachieving, having shown he can handle the physical demands of Test rugby.
The 22-year-old has been powerful on both sides of the ball, and while he may not be the answer at blindside, there’s a strong argument based on the impact he made against South Africa and Australia, that next year he should shift to his preferred No 8 role and Ardie Savea return to his original home at openside.
Part of the attraction of shifting Sititi to No 8, is that it would enable him to continue to develop his Chiefs combination with scrum-half Cortez Ratima, who has arguably been the find of the season for the All Blacks.
The 23-year-old No 9 has brought pace to the All Blacks’ attack, and has been an effective runner, too, cutting open Australia a couple of times in Sydney, in a performance that was innovative and accurate, and arguably Sititi and Ratima were vying to be considered man of the match in Bledisloe One.
It is beyond doubt, now, that Ratima and Cam Roigard – the 23-year-old Hurricanes No 9 who is close to coming back after serious injury – are going to be the All Blacks match day halfbacks for much of this World Cup cycle.
Asked about their performances, and seasons so far, Robertson said: “[I’m], just pleased that they [have]got the courage to show their talent and their skill set on the bigger stage.
“So early in their Test career, they step right to the occasion, don’t they, in the big moments. And, you know, it’s great when you give a young guy, young players opportunities and they take them.
“And, you know, the last three weeks, both of them have been remarkable. Great story, isn’t it?”
It is beyond doubt, now, that Ratima and Cam Roigard – the 23-year-old Hurricanes No 9 who is close to coming back after serious injury – are going to be the All Blacks match day halfbacks for much of this World Cup cycle.
Clarke is the other youngster who is punching above his weight in 2024. He’s been in and out of the team since making his debut in 2020, but finally, now that he’s injury free and fully fit, the All Blacks are seeing the best of him.
He’s back to being an unstoppable runner, but the real benefit he’s brought is his aerial skills and ability to win back contestable kicks.
It’s a rare mix of size, speed, power and soft skills and if he can avoid injuries, he’ll be the All Blacks preferred left wing for the remainder of the cycle.
Throw in the form of 24-year-old loosehead prop Tamaiti Williams, and it becomes apparent that the All Blacks have already found the core of their team for 2027.
This new group are emerging alongside Tyrel Lomax, Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan, who are all established All Blacks with the age profile to be at peak form come 2027.
Ardie Savea, who turns 31 next month is a strong probability to still be in world leading form come 2027 and the only question marks that the All Blacks have now is whether 33-year-old hooker Codie Taylor and 33-year-old utility back Beauden Barrett can make it that far.
But there is this whole issue of how patient the public can be if the results continue to sit at around the 60 per cent mark.
The All Blacks have never previously tolerated that low a win ratio from any coach and so while Robertson may well be building something special for 2027, he’s going to have to win more tests than he currently is to keep the public from venting and the pressure from mounting.
Am fairly relaxed about the win/loss % as the team are in transition so am more interested in the performances although expect us to drop another 3 before year end and so be sitting on 54%
I like how the All Blacks are building again but everyone is forgetting what the Springboks are busy doing - it's insane creating a Springbok pool of 50 players for 2027.
Props : Mchunu, Du Toit, Steenekamp, Jan Hendrik Wessels(Covers Hooker Aswell).
Hookers : Grobberlaar, Andre Hugo Venter
Locks : Ruan Nortje, Salmaan Moerat
Loose Forwards : Ruan Venter, Pepsi Buthelezi, Evan Roos, Elrigh Louw, Ben Jason Dixon, Cameron Hanekom(Uncapped), Gumedi (Uncapped)
Scrumhalves : Morne Van der Berg, Herschell Jantjies(Injured), Jayden Hendrikse, Grant Williams
Flyhalf : Sacha Feinberg Mngomezulu, Manie Libbok, Jordan Hendrikse
Wings : Edwill Van Der Merwe
Centres : Ethan Hooker(Uncapped), Jurenzo Julius(Uncapped), Henco Van Wyk(Uncapped)
Fullback : Aphelele Fassi, Quan Horn, Damian Willemse(Injured)
13 New Capped Springboks this Season and a few more to come at the end of year tour.
It's scary what is brewing in the Springbok camp !
No one has forgotten about what the Springboks are doing. It's just, this article is about another team which isn't South Africa.
Just don’t tell@FL
Evolution not revolution. The All Blacks need to keep evolving through selection and strategies to keep an upwards curve. That is all I require, as a fan. They will make mistakes and even be beaten by better teams on the day - but they need to keep improving. Ultimately, NZ still produces enough World Class talent (and Sititi is that, should we have any doubt about this) to be able to win the World Cup - but they have to be the smartest team around to do so, these days.
I think the team is starting to ‘track’ - and hopefully the inclusion of returning players like Blackadder, Roigard, Love, Perefeta, Takei’aho (when will he return?) will bolster the end of year squad. Maybe next year, a few more faces may re-emerge like Leicester Fainga’anuku, Shannon Frizell, Ritchie Mu’unga and possibly the Otago lock, Fabien Holland.
Smart, yep, and they need to get back to finding that winning formula.
I'm a big believer in that being their point of difference since they started throwing it around in what, 70's, after the Lions(?), and they kinda steered away from that concept of 'team' success and focused on star players.
I agree somewhat that Sititi and Ratima were finds of the season. Good players for the long term. But they really stood out because TJ was poor and your Back row has also been average. Let’s be honest.
I don’t think the AB tight 5 lived up to the hype. They’ve had their moments but their scrumming, particularly in SA, wasn’t great. Tamaiti Williams, yes he is young and is a big unit, but he was lucky not to have been penalized more against the Boks in both tests.
The ABs will beat England up north - as England is also “building” for something apparently. My guess is two wins against Italy and Wales in next years 6 Nations. And probably a new coach if Borthwick does worse and drops a game to Italy or Wales.
But France and Ireland will be much tougher than even SA who are not playing to their potential, and certainly Australia which are solidly the number 9 team in the world. And actually put up a good fight.
At least we’ve figured out though that BB is the best flyhalf in NZ and will reach 160 caps by the time he plays at the next World Cup just shy of male menopause.
😁
I’m kidding. Relax.
It was good we got to see Williams in the end wasnt it. Good for us as he showed enough to become the number two and be part of our Fat Freddy Sub band.
I think the forwards have been better than you describe but the problem has been well documented about getting the same return in the final 20 minutes. I think having players like Tuipolutu return gives more confidence towards using the bench. I also would like to see the return of Taukei’aho whose powerful influence has been missed at times.
The loose forward combination includes 2 world class performers now and one gap to fill, assuming Sam Cane’s time is up. The third spot loosie selection and how the unit combines is the key to the ABs being successful in the future.
France and Ireland will be tough but saying it and actually delivering on that promise are two different things in sport. If they turn up, the ABs will need to be ready for them - bring it on!
I love the suggested change in narrative.
Now that the ABs are building for 2027 - it’s okay to be a sub 70% team (over 6 seasons mind you). And for coaches like Razor (but not Rassie) to lose in the short term to win over the long term.
The NZ public are not that patient. Don’t see it happening.
The only problem I have with all this and the current AB team is that there’s been no gambles taken with bringing in young players.
The only thing more ridiculous than this hypocrisy, I’ll admit, is being an 80 plus % team and blowing QFs in the only tournament that actually matters.
Although I think someone recently suggested that SR and Bledisloe Cups are more important. I can’t keep up.
😁
Razor has been far more conservative- some would say chicken- than we were expecting.
Steve Hansen dropped leading players cold in 2019 when they didn’t deliver. (Ok he brought in George Bridge but at the time that dude was in some very good form that he translated to the big stage.)
Razor seems timid by comparison.
The Razor gang is certainly a lesson in counting your blessings while you have em ie the blessing of Mr 70% Foster & the ‘1 point off a RWC cup’ team he & his coaching team developed.
‘Wonder coach’ (?) Razor took that Foster 70% team & so far has 50% success, including 15minutes of B.cup1, ie therefore lost the other 65min against 10th ranked, Wallabies.
Then pre the hardest AB Nth tour in history WHAT BACK UP[??] has Razor developed?
{starters}
1 {Williams} / Tu’ungafasi &?- nil back up has been run
2 {Taylor}/ Aumua &?- nil
3 {Lomax}/ &?- Tosi with micro time
4,5 Locks {Vaa’I, S.Barrett ] &?- P.Tuipulotu post injury but micro time for Barry
6,7,8 Loose forwards { Sititi, A.Savea } &?- retiring Cane & perpetually injured Blackadder but nil SR star H.Sotutu
9 {Ratima} &?- chatty TJ, still injured Roigard!
10 D.McK &?- BB?! That failed old experiment again!
12 & 13 ALB R. Ioane &?- Zero SR performer Havili!! OMG! But near zero time for SR star Proctor.
14 Reece &? But zero time for SR star Narawa
11 {C.Clarke} / Tele’a? Covered thanks to Foster
15 {W.Jordan}&?
This dead rubber B.cup1 AND 2, & again against 10th rank Wallabies (!), should have been STARTING game time & development for,
(2)Aumua, (3)Tosi, (4)Barry, (5)Tuipulotu, (8)Sititi, (6)Sotutu, (9)Ratima (10)Plummer, (13)Proctor, (14) Narawa, (15) Stevenson.
Yes even if bizarrely not squad members.
But instead we get chat about, you guessed, 9th ranked SR Crusaders family, Fihaki, Havili, Fainga’anuku, Bell, perpetually injured Blackadder and, no joke, Noah Hotham (watch his show in the Fiji game).
Seriously,
'Bring back Foster!'
[never thought I say it let alone mean it!]
Here we go … wait for it … the Razor Occult excuses (ie from such 'winning' but whinny folk.
What are you talking about backup? The ABs aren't a charity.
He's had more than enough youngster in camp, Sititi, Love, Bell, Hotham, any more and it would be a negative. Plus the other massive changes in the team.
You're obviously an off the plot razor hater.
The EOYT has always been the window that All Black coaches blood young rising stars not the RC.
Only reason crusaders were ninth is because all the superstars were injured.
Aalso Plummer should never be given an All Black jersey, he is dreadful.
Noah Hotham didn't play for the All Blacks, and Razor has never coached him so I don't know what you're talking about. Also he is definitely the third best halfback in NZ
Can't believe you have forgotten how good Fainganuku was already.
Fihaki trained with the squad but he will not be playing.
I agree that Narawa and Proctor should get a run. Havili is only there because he can play and cover many positions (10, 12, 13, 15).
I think Razor is just trying to get second in TRC so he isn't a true embarrassment, and then he will use the EOTY tour to throw some young players like Lakai and Proctor into the fire.
Jordie Barrett will be back for the EOTY tour so stop stressing over midfield options.
There are only three hard teams in the NH tour, the rest are rubbish no matter how much they hype themselves up. France will also likely field a B team. I think that Cane, Barrett, Tuipulotu, and Perenara will be dropped.
Just stay calm, Razor has to rely on the old team to carry him through the first few games before he can make big changes. This is just the start of the cycle.
Also, NZR really hamstringed Razor by letting his favorite, and most important player, Richie Mounga go offshore. People really don't seem to understand how important he is and was, and I pray that he comes home early since there really is nobody else like him.
Does this guy think the All Blacks should win every game scoring at a point a minute?
Just give this article a pass?
I have always assumed that’s what everyone in NZ wants?
Ricky Razors has picked a conservative match day 23 for what is a dead rubber of a game. Very telling.
Maybe he knows there is a chance he may not be in charge for the 2027 RWC.
That's allot of respect they are showing to a tier 2 team.
It's not a dead rubber. Still counts towards TRC.
As a big-time Razor fan, I feel like he is only keeping around the vets for experiences sake. But having watched his Crusaders, he is not usually afraid to select the new guys like Fainganuku and Will Jordan.
I find it strange that he also isn't using his bench properly. While I am not an international coach, I know that props don't stay on the field for more than 65 minutes. Same with hookers and locks.
It feels like he is only going to be using them for TRC, and then drop most of them after reviewing some NPC tape. While Sititi, Ratima, and Vaai are all good finds, a definitive openside and blindside flanker, first-five, and right wing all need to be found.
Damian Mackenzie is unfortunately not the man I thought he was. Childish thought process, small boot, horrid defending, and lack of game management in the last 20 have shown him to be an excellent bench option, but he cannot be the main man at the All Blacks. He is not ruthless or cunning, as Richie Mounga and Dan Carter were. He doesn't execute, and he refuses to find form, even after starting eight tests in a row. While there are few other options, it is disappointing to see other first-fives like Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Tomas Albornoz flourish in the same timespan.
As for openside flanker, the only realistic option is to move Ardie Savea there or get Peter Lakai into the squad. Ethan Blackadder is by far the best 7 in the nation when fit, but he never is. Would be a great impact player though. Ardie Savea is getting on in years now, and he has been excellent, but its time for some fresh blood there. Even Dalton Papalii would be preferable at this point.
The blindside flank has eluded All Blacks coaches since Jerome Kaino left. I don't blame Razor for finding it hard to pick a man there. Shannon Frizell is the best option, but he won't be back until next year, after the JPL1 season ends. Until then, Wallace Sititi is the best option. I do wonder if Sam Darry could play there though?
As for the right wing, Mark Telea is dreadfully out of form and Reece is too short. The only other feasible option is Emoni Narawa. Hurry up and bring him back please Razor. Been lacking power on both wings for last few games, with the left side clearly favoured with Clarke down there.
This post didn't age well after his bench role sealed the deal on the weekend JWH!
It was predictable mate. It's all a matter of perspective when comparing him to those other two. He has been leading the backline in there all important attacking shape (you can't expect him to solve every deficiency immediately with regards to tactical kicking etc, which he was the best at in SR), and that was very evident by the turn around in play compared to Barrett in the weekend.
Still a lot to work on of course, as is the case for those other two as well.
I'm happy to see whatever change in the loosies they want to go with, but the most imperative change is that Ardie is no longer the go to 8. Whatever they do with him, they are NOT going to unlock all the possibilities if he is continually selected to start at 8.
Savea is less than 18 months older than Blackadder - age wise and form, he'll still be a dominant starter for us at RWC 2027.
I feel everyone is desperate to turn the ABs into the Baby Blacks, change for change sake isn't necessary...we're not far off being a force again and just need to re-discover our ruthless, killer streak to close out games. Our tight 5 is rapidly becoming the best in the world, we have 2 rock-star 9s in Ratima and Roigard, proven performers in Frizzell and Mounga coming back and Will Jordan showing signs of being an international 15 which will scare everybody outside of NZ.
I would have Talea at 14 over Reece currently...this team on Sat seriously lacks a secondary kicking option which Jordie (or BB when at 15) has been operating as, will be interesting as we know how slow TJs box kick (and pass) is.
Imagine at the 2027 world cup if you had Mounga and Ratima starting and then Mckenzie/Barrett and Roigard coming off the bench that would be insane impact
Roigard will likely get his spot back before then, he is a generational talent.
As a Crusaders/Razor fan I see little evidence of future proofing. Which I say regretfully. Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett are still there. Ethan Blackadder is the future and was indeed available. He was in great nick before the injury and now ? Cortez Ratima should be the halfback, Noah Hotham as back up. The latter has had a great year, but hardly played. Ethan Blackadder should be in this team. Reiko Ioane in his real position on the wing. Will Jordan , as showed with the Crusaders , brilliant and fullback his best position
Ethan Blackadder has never remained fit for half a season let alone a whole one. The only thing he is the future of is a permanent seat on the rehab ward. He is a very solid player, but at international level he is not truly world class at any particular thing - not as fast as players like Kwagga of JVDF, not as physically dominant as players like PSDT, or Cunningham-South, or even Sititi, and doesn't have the ball playing skills of Savea or Frizzell.
Given his injury record there is a very slim chance he will still be playing in NZ come World Cup time. He will be 33 and so banged up he will need q cortisol injection just to get out of bed in the morning. I can see him signing for someone like Pau, but only 5 appearances over 2 seasons because of injury before retiring.
There is no point in moving someone who is 27 to the wing, especially when NZ has a crazy production line of wingers.
Ethan Blackadder is turning 30 next year, doesn't scream future! Lakai will ultimately take that 7 role, i would argue he should be fast-tracked. I'd happily have Blackadder starting at 7 in the Cane role until Lakai comes of age though, don't get me wrong. Papalii surely feels a bit hard done by this season too.
I also think Hotham is pretty lucky to be there, a player for the future absolutely but time would be better spent ripping up at NPC and playing rugby rather than holding tackle bags. He's the sort of player that should be exposed through All Blacks XV as a future star.
I think that's the balance the author is talking about. He's listed a bunch of young players who are performing but he's felt the need to keep some experience in the team to try to win matches and guide the kids.
I'd certainly like to see a lot of younger players tried against Japan, Italy and then next year against what's likely to be a second string France.
The three middle matches in the end of year tour against England, Ireland and France all in a row will be tough.
The future proofing can and should be done on the EOYT not the RC.
Win at Wellington, disband for a week or two (with players released to NPC who need game time), and then cull Ofa Tuungafasi, Sam Cane, Luke Jacobson, TJ Perenara, Anton Lienart-Brown, David Havili
Bring in Xavier Numia, Peter Lakai, Brayden Iose, Cam Roigard, AJ Lam, and Quinn Tupaea.