It has been a bumpy season for the All Blacks, one seemingly filled exclusively with erratic performances that have led to modest results. The record of five wins from eight Tests is so-so, but the bigger concern for the media and public alike has been the lack of emphatic performances.
There was a memorably good 40-minute blitz to blow Argentina away at Eden Park, and in the first 20 minutes against Australia in Sydney, the All Blacks scored three tries in 16 minutes and were threatening to run up the sort of scoreline that would have left the Wallabies humiliated.
But in both those games, the All Blacks lost their way in the second half, just as they did in their two Tests against South Africa, and to some extent, when they played England in July.
For a team that has built its reputation on being ruthless, merciless even, these eight performances to date in 2024 have left a nation feeling underwhelmed.
The angst is understandable – New Zealanders are used to not only seeing the All Blacks win, but mostly doing so with high-intensity, high-skill performances.
But this angst is perhaps preventing everyone from seeing that the foundations of a good World Cup 2027 team are being laid.
In the last month or so, a handful of young, potential superstars have emerged – players who by 2027, may be best in the world in their respective positions.
It’s not all doom and gloom, therefore, but it may be hard for the All Blacks coaching group to sell the public a narrative of rebuilding and success lying in the future and not the present.
Building the next generation has always been a tricky business for All Blacks coaches, because they are under intense and consistent pressure to maintain a winning record, and have no licence from either the public or their employer to lose today to enable them to win tomorrow.
The deal for All Blacks coaches is win today and win tomorrow, which is a philosophy that they alone follow, and one that can be seen by comparing their record in the last two World Cup cycles with the Springboks.
Between 2016 and 2019 (not including the World Cup), the All Blacks won 87 per cent of their Tests; and between 2020 and 2023 (not including the World Cup) they won 68 per cent of their Tests.
The 68 per cent win ratio in the last cycle was bad enough to see then coach Ian Foster almost fired, and so the All Blacks don’t have the luxury of building a team to mature over four years to win the World Cup the way the Springboks seemingly do.
The Springboks between 2016 and 2019 (not including the World Cup) won 49 per cent of their Tests; and between 2021 (they didn’t play in 2020 due to Covid) and 2023 (not including the World Cup), they won 65 per cent of their Tests.
The Springboks won both the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, but their success ratio in between tournaments would never have washed with the New Zealand public had it been the All Blacks producing those numbers.
The 68 per cent win ratio in the last cycle was bad enough to see then coach Ian Foster almost fired, and so the All Blacks don’t have the luxury of building a team to mature over four years to win the World Cup the way the Springboks seemingly do.
This try was perfection 👌#AllBlacks #SAPBestRun pic.twitter.com/2FPGrbbrXy
— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) September 23, 2024
New Zealand wouldn’t put up with a 50 per cent win ratio in a World Cup cycle even if they were crowned world champions at the end of it and the challenge for head coach Scott Robertson is to lift his current 62 per cent success rate and yet keep building a team that will peak in 2027.
And there are clear signs that he’s got the basis of a team that can do the latter as the big improvers and stars of the show in 2024 have been young men such as Tupou Vaa’i, Wallace Sititi, Cortez Ratima, Caleb Clarke and Tamaiti Williams – all of whom are 25 or younger.
Vai’i, who was first capped in 2020, can’t exactly be called a find, but he’s advanced incredibly this year as a result of winning regular game time due to the retirements of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick.
Prior to this year, Vai’i had done little to suggest he’d be so prominent and influential if given the chance, but he’s suddenly found the ability to clear big men out of rucks, become a disruptive lineout operator, carry with punch, get around the park and tackle well.
Tupou is right up there with the world’s best. And it’s a real credit to him. He’s becoming a man, I guess. And you know, his future is all still in front of him, that’s for sure.
Jason Ryan
He’s arguably outshone captain Scott Barrett as the best lock on view and at 24, there is some excitement building as to how good he might be in 2027.
Forwards coach Jason Ryan, not prone to talking any young forwards up, broke that habit when he was asked to assess Vai’i’s season ahead of the first Bledisloe clash.
“I think he’s probably been one of the in-form All Black forwards, in his area, in this test season.
“It’s a continuation, he had great form for the Chiefs. And he’s well established in the Test arena now.
“And he’s right up there with the world’s best. And it’s a real credit to him. He’s becoming a man, I guess. And you know, his future is all still in front of him, that’s for sure.”
Wallace Sititi is another young forward overachieving, having shown he can handle the physical demands of Test rugby.
The 22-year-old has been powerful on both sides of the ball, and while he may not be the answer at blindside, there’s a strong argument based on the impact he made against South Africa and Australia, that next year he should shift to his preferred No 8 role and Ardie Savea return to his original home at openside.
Part of the attraction of shifting Sititi to No 8, is that it would enable him to continue to develop his Chiefs combination with scrum-half Cortez Ratima, who has arguably been the find of the season for the All Blacks.
The 23-year-old No 9 has brought pace to the All Blacks’ attack, and has been an effective runner, too, cutting open Australia a couple of times in Sydney, in a performance that was innovative and accurate, and arguably Sititi and Ratima were vying to be considered man of the match in Bledisloe One.
It is beyond doubt, now, that Ratima and Cam Roigard – the 23-year-old Hurricanes No 9 who is close to coming back after serious injury – are going to be the All Blacks match day halfbacks for much of this World Cup cycle.
Asked about their performances, and seasons so far, Robertson said: “[I’m], just pleased that they [have]got the courage to show their talent and their skill set on the bigger stage.
“So early in their Test career, they step right to the occasion, don’t they, in the big moments. And, you know, it’s great when you give a young guy, young players opportunities and they take them.
“And, you know, the last three weeks, both of them have been remarkable. Great story, isn’t it?”
It is beyond doubt, now, that Ratima and Cam Roigard – the 23-year-old Hurricanes No 9 who is close to coming back after serious injury – are going to be the All Blacks match day halfbacks for much of this World Cup cycle.
Clarke is the other youngster who is punching above his weight in 2024. He’s been in and out of the team since making his debut in 2020, but finally, now that he’s injury free and fully fit, the All Blacks are seeing the best of him.
He’s back to being an unstoppable runner, but the real benefit he’s brought is his aerial skills and ability to win back contestable kicks.
It’s a rare mix of size, speed, power and soft skills and if he can avoid injuries, he’ll be the All Blacks preferred left wing for the remainder of the cycle.
Throw in the form of 24-year-old loosehead prop Tamaiti Williams, and it becomes apparent that the All Blacks have already found the core of their team for 2027.
This new group are emerging alongside Tyrel Lomax, Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan, who are all established All Blacks with the age profile to be at peak form come 2027.
Ardie Savea, who turns 31 next month is a strong probability to still be in world leading form come 2027 and the only question marks that the All Blacks have now is whether 33-year-old hooker Codie Taylor and 33-year-old utility back Beauden Barrett can make it that far.
But there is this whole issue of how patient the public can be if the results continue to sit at around the 60 per cent mark.
The All Blacks have never previously tolerated that low a win ratio from any coach and so while Robertson may well be building something special for 2027, he’s going to have to win more tests than he currently is to keep the public from venting and the pressure from mounting.
As a big-time Razor fan, I feel like he is only keeping around the vets for experiences sake. But having watched his Crusaders, he is not usually afraid to select the new guys like Fainganuku and Will Jordan.
I find it strange that he also isn't using his bench properly. While I am not an international coach, I know that props don't stay on the field for more than 65 minutes. Same with hookers and locks.
It feels like he is only going to be using them for TRC, and then drop most of them after reviewing some NPC tape. While Sititi, Ratima, and Vaai are all good finds, a definitive openside and blindside flanker, first-five, and right wing all need to be found.
Damian Mackenzie is unfortunately not the man I thought he was. Childish thought process, small boot, horrid defending, and lack of game management in the last 20 have shown him to be an excellent bench option, but he cannot be the main man at the All Blacks. He is not ruthless or cunning, as Richie Mounga and Dan Carter were. He doesn't execute, and he refuses to find form, even after starting eight tests in a row. While there are few other options, it is disappointing to see other first-fives like Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu and Tomas Albornoz flourish in the same timespan.
As for openside flanker, the only realistic option is to move Ardie Savea there or get Peter Lakai into the squad. Ethan Blackadder is by far the best 7 in the nation when fit, but he never is. Would be a great impact player though. Ardie Savea is getting on in years now, and he has been excellent, but its time for some fresh blood there. Even Dalton Papalii would be preferable at this point.
The blindside flank has eluded All Blacks coaches since Jerome Kaino left. I don't blame Razor for finding it hard to pick a man there. Shannon Frizell is the best option, but he won't be back until next year, after the JPL1 season ends. Until then, Wallace Sititi is the best option. I do wonder if Sam Darry could play there though?
As for the right wing, Mark Telea is dreadfully out of form and Reece is too short. The only other feasible option is Emoni Narawa. Hurry up and bring him back please Razor. Been lacking power on both wings for last few games, with the left side clearly favoured with Clarke down there.
Savea is less than 18 months older than Blackadder - age wise and form, he'll still be a dominant starter for us at RWC 2027.
I feel everyone is desperate to turn the ABs into the Baby Blacks, change for change sake isn't necessary...we're not far off being a force again and just need to re-discover our ruthless, killer streak to close out games. Our tight 5 is rapidly becoming the best in the world, we have 2 rock-star 9s in Ratima and Roigard, proven performers in Frizzell and Mounga coming back and Will Jordan showing signs of being an international 15 which will scare everybody outside of NZ.
I would have Talea at 14 over Reece currently...this team on Sat seriously lacks a secondary kicking option which Jordie (or BB when at 15) has been operating as, will be interesting as we know how slow TJs box kick (and pass) is.
Imagine at the 2027 world cup if you had Mounga and Ratima starting and then Mckenzie/Barrett and Roigard coming off the bench that would be insane impact
Roigard will likely get his spot back before then, he is a generational talent.
As a Crusaders/Razor fan I see little evidence of future proofing. Which I say regretfully. Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett are still there. Ethan Blackadder is the future and was indeed available. He was in great nick before the injury and now ? Cortez Ratima should be the halfback, Noah Hotham as back up. The latter has had a great year, but hardly played. Ethan Blackadder should be in this team. Reiko Ioane in his real position on the wing. Will Jordan , as showed with the Crusaders , brilliant and fullback his best position
Ethan Blackadder is turning 30 next year, doesn't scream future! Lakai will ultimately take that 7 role, i would argue he should be fast-tracked. I'd happily have Blackadder starting at 7 in the Cane role until Lakai comes of age though, don't get me wrong. Papalii surely feels a bit hard done by this season too.
I also think Hotham is pretty lucky to be there, a player for the future absolutely but time would be better spent ripping up at NPC and playing rugby rather than holding tackle bags. He's the sort of player that should be exposed through All Blacks XV as a future star.
I think that's the balance the author is talking about. He's listed a bunch of young players who are performing but he's felt the need to keep some experience in the team to try to win matches and guide the kids.
I'd certainly like to see a lot of younger players tried against Japan, Italy and then next year against what's likely to be a second string France.
The three middle matches in the end of year tour against England, Ireland and France all in a row will be tough.
The future proofing can and should be done on the EOYT not the RC.
Win at Wellington, disband for a week or two (with players released to NPC who need game time), and then cull Ofa Tuungafasi, Sam Cane, Luke Jacobson, TJ Perenara, Anton Lienart-Brown, David Havili
Bring in Xavier Numia, Peter Lakai, Brayden Iose, Cam Roigard, AJ Lam, and Quinn Tupaea.