LONG READ 'Ireland could end up with 20 Lions after winning back the world's respect'

One of the lasting images of Ireland’s fantastic Kings Park win over South Africa featured an airborne, ecstatic Ciarán Frawley being met by Craig Casey. The Munster scrum-half had been sickeningly knocked out of contention at Loftus Versfeld a week earlier, but recovered enough to lead a delirious charge the moment Frawley’s last-gasp drop goal sealed a famous victory.

Frawley was mobbed, 50m away, as captain Caelan Doris, Garry Ringrose and a grinning Stuart McCloskey headed off any Springboks seeking out Karl Dickson and his assistants. For James Ryan, replaced by Ryan Baird for the endgame, it was an 80:20 split of ecstasy and keeping one eye on the officials to see if the drop was going to count.

The moment Ciarán Frawley knew. pic.twitter.com/6goE1I3uct

— Murray Kinsella (@Murray_Kinsella) July 14, 2024

Ryan had been out on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium pitch, at the end of regulation and extra time, when Frawley had taken on two drop-goal attempts and missed. Toulouse would make them pay. He knows full well how it feels to be on the other side of those razor-thin margins. It made Saturday extra sweet.

“When you get a win like that it makes your summer,” Ryan told reporters in Durban. “It’s not an exaggeration. The ball goes over the bar, just the difference it makes to everyone’s summer. It’s the business we’re in, it’s like a drug.”

Ryan is on the money. Those two Frawley drop goals, which secured Ireland’s 25-24 triumph, have altered the mood significantly in Ireland and abroad.

Andy Farrell did a good job of resetting the goals for his squad after another crushing World Cup quarter-final exit. He also asked several senior stars to stick around. Peter O’Mahony took over from Johnny Sexton as captain, and there were continued roles for Conor Murray, Cian Healy, Iain Henderson and, in South Africa, Rob Herring. Jamison Gibson-Park is 32 and Bundee Aki is 34. Both are enjoying such sustained form their age does not come up too often.

The immediate 2024 goal was to become back-to-back Grand Slam champions. France, in 1998, were the last team to repeat a Slam, but that was before Italy joined the fray. Ireland identified some history to chase and that spurred them on. It was going well until England had their number at Twickenham. The Six Nations title was retained, though, and that feel-good factor returned. The slip to England would linger. This was a team not as nerveless and scary as they had looked during their 17-Test winning streak from July 2022 to October 2023.

The fate of the top provinces ensured there was little puff in Ireland’s sails as they set off for South Africa. Toulouse stretched their European Cup tally to six as – ridiculously inspired by Antoine Dupont – they outlasted Leinster in a prolonged slobberknocker. Conscious of a French side wilfully giving up penalties to halt cup final momentum (as La Rochelle did in 2022), Leinster went for attacking lineouts and, time and again, were stuffed. Then, in the space of one chastening Saturday, Bulls rumbled Leinster and Glasgow deservedly beat Munster in the United Rugby Championship semi-finals.

By the time Farrell selected his touring squad, no-one in Ireland was left claiming they were the best in the world. Those October 2023 proclamations, before the World Cup quarter-final against New Zealand, seemed a lifetime ago. The Springbok tub-thumpers were forced to go back to Irish radio shows last year for any bold talk to add to their rousing pre-match hype videos. There was a growing sense Ireland were flaming out after briefly threatening to burn the old narratives.

Farrell faced calls to really mix it up and draft in six or seven uncapped players – leaving totems such as O’Mahony, Murray and Healy at home. Farrell settled on three, in Jamie Osborne, Sam Prendergast and Cormac Izuchukwu, but none featured in most of the predicted XVs. The older guard would still be needed, Farrell decided, but he liked what he saw in Osborne. The 22-year-old had last lined out at full-back in the 2021 Under-20 Six Nations, but Ireland’s coaching staff felt he could be worth some training ground reps. He was up against Jimmy O’Brien and Frawley for the jersey, and did not take long to convince everyone he deserved the dice-roll.

For his heroics, Frawley will see a lot more Test-match involvement, but it is almost like the consolation prize.

Osborne’s emergence as a strong backline option – an alternative to Hugo Keenan and a centre succession plan – is a huge positive from the tour. Another is seeing how well Ireland took to Tadhg Beirne switching to blind-side flanker so Ryan could be accommodated in the second row. Baird had looked next man up for the number six jersey after O’Mahony, but remains in the bench impact slot. Izuchukwu, Cian Prendergast and Tom Ahern should also be vying for the November squads.

For his heroics, Frawley will see a lot more Test-match involvement, but it is almost like the consolation prize. He is the undoubted deputy to Jack Crowley – two years his junior – but will also be covering centre and full-back on that replacements bench. His reward may be starts against Fiji and/or Argentina in November. Sam Prendergast will hope to have a say on that but Farrell then needs Leinster to play ball. Ross Byrne’s Test window appears to have closed, yet he finished last season with the 10 jersey on his back. There were efforts made to shift Harry Byrne over to Connacht, but the player wants to stay and fight for his place. Hovering above all of that, Farrell wants Frawley to get more fly-half minutes but can only nudge so much.

Doris assuming the captaincy with so little fuss or impact on his personal performances is huge. The Leinster back-row was Ireland’s player of the series, and leaves South Africa with Schalk Burger and Jean de Villiers, among many others, singing his praises.

This leads us nicely to the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia. I wrote, back in May, Doris was the clear frontrunner to captain the Lions next summer. The South Africa series reaffirms that belief. Jamie George is doing a fine job with England but would have to go through Dan Sheehan, Rónan Kelleher and even Wales try-merchant Dewi Lake to get near the starting Test XV.

Farrell values players who stand up when counted, especially on tour. Names and performances from this summer will have been noted and circled. The Scots are romping through their American jaunt but it is hard to glean much, given the opponents they are swatting aside. For Wales, Lake, James Botham, Aaron Wainwright and Christ Tshiunza have been good. Over in the New Zealand, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso continues to impress, Maro Itoje is back to his best and both Marcus Smith and Ben Earl have burnished their reputations.

As we head into a short off-season, before embarking on a Lions one, Ireland are lining up to dominate next summer’s touring squad. A conservative estimate, if all the key players have injury luck, would include 16 Irishmen in a 37-man squad. They could end up with 20, if Farrell is willing to wear the Gatland-loves-Wales comparisons. When it comes to Test XV frontrunners, I would confidently list Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Doris, Gibson-Park, Aki and Keenan, with Beirne and Josh van der Flier pressing.

Set a similar challenge if that Frawley drop-goal had missed the target, such expectations would have been tempered. Frawley nailed it, though, and in doing so Ireland won back the respect of the rugby world. Farrell may be going on a Lions sabbatical later this year, but this Ireland side are going nowhere.