LONG READ Ireland one more November defeat from a full-blown crisis of confidence

It is the morning of Ireland’s match against New Zealand. During the school run, a neighbour gets in a quick rugby chat as we head in opposite directions. Furlong and Sheehan out, Hansen and O’Mahony shy of minutes, Crowley’s confidence knocked by Munster’s struggles. It slows my pace a beat.

“Still,” he adds, looking back, “in Andy we trust.”

Just over 12 hours later and I am wedged in a mini huddle, around that same Andy. We are in a corridor behind the press conference room, at Aviva Stadium. Moments ago, Andy Farrell asserted his team had been deservedly beaten by the All Blacks. Absolutely no-one was arguing the point.

Now, standing in a corner, in front of a semi-circle of reporters, Farrell is asked if he is worried. Towering above all but one of us, Farrell scoffs, “No, are you?”

The reporter pries more – “A little bit (worried)?”

“You don’t become a bad side in one game, do you?” Farrell counters.

All this carries on before the victorious Scott Robertson and Scott Barrett will head up that same corridor to do their debrief duties. For all the talk of Ireland having World Cup revenge on their mind, it was New Zealand that looked determined to grind Farrell’s men. They put up Rieko Ioane to lead their Haka and never looked back.

Ireland’s best period of the match – the only time they strung phases together and looked to have a clue – was when Jordie Barrett occupied a fold-out chair that made for a meagre sin-bin. Some questioned why James Lowe celebrated his excellent 50:22 kick, with eight minutes left. In truth, he was trying to get the crowd and his team revved up after 20 minutes of dread, worry and frustration that preceded it.

Scrums, resets, handling errors, scrums, penalties coughed up, picked off lineouts, reset scrums, more handling errors, two Jack Crowley penalties and a crunching Garry Ringrose hit on Ioane. That was the height of the first half for Ireland. Andrew Porter elicited the biggest roar from the home crowd, in that opening 40, when a block-down and tackle that helped win a scrum. That moment happened with 1:05 on the clock. By the time the ball finally came out of the scrum, after resets, lectures and resets from referee Nic Berry, the match clock was at 3:46. This was a grating theme of the match.

New Zealand were happy to scrap it out, trust their punishing defence and take any kickable points on offer. They were playing cup rugby. Ireland were playing hardly any rugby.

Jordie Barrett’s borderline shot on Ringrose was ultimately deemed a yellow card after a bunker review but it offered Ireland a way back. They accumulated 10 points, the lead and, one assumed, the momentum by the time he returned. Ireland would not score again.

Berry made futile efforts to stop Kiwi encroachment at the lineout but also allowed both sides to make a complete mess of the breakdown. Slow, slow ball. “It was good from them,” Farrell later observed. “They picked a few of our lineouts off the top… We didn’t really manage to put our game out on the field.” New Zealand were happy to scrap it out, trust their punishing defence and take any kickable points on offer. They were playing cup rugby. Ireland were playing hardly any rugby.

💪 How about that! Prolific

🙌 Will Jordan crosses over in the corner as the @AllBlacks stretch their lead in Dublin!#IREvNZL | #AutumnNationsSeries pic.twitter.com/Cf4slrv3xz

— Rugby on TNT Sports (@rugbyontnt) November 8, 2024

Ireland, for the past year, have averaged 131 carries per game. On Friday night, they had 86 (compared to 118 by the Kiwis). In the first half, they had just one sequence with more than three consecutive passes. They had four in the second half, two of which arrived with Barrett in the bin. Handling conditions were slick, due to a persistent drizzle, but it did not affect the All Blacks (14 handling errors) as it did Ireland (21). The hosts were also guilty of missing 30 tackles to finish with a tackle completion rate of 76%.

Ireland’s primary game-plan appeared to be putting considerable air under the ball and hoping the Kiwis faltered. Will Jordan and Jordie Barrett gobbled most of it up. Some of the kicks were overcooked, but the visitors lapped it up. Still, Ireland persisted. I met my father and one of my sisters, both well on their way to merry, after the match. My dad suggested a headline – STOP KICKING THE BALL AWAY.

The last time Farrell faced so many tough questions after an Ireland game was after their last home defeat, against France in the 2021 Six Nations. Even after the World Cup exit, last October, Farrell would not have seen so much doubt, and concern, in so many eyes.

During that post-match huddle, Farrell was asked about his 10s, Crowley and Ciaran Frawley. With Johnny Sexton gone, was this match good for highlighting for the younger outhalves need to deliver, at this level? “Yeah,” he agreed, before adding, “game-management is not just down to them neither. It’s down to others helping with the calls and seeing the space, etcetera. Having said that, if you are playing you would expect yourself to hold onto the ball for more than a couple of phases, which we didn’t do, at times.”

The last time Farrell faced so many tough questions after an Ireland game was after their last home defeat, against France in the 2021 Six Nations. Even after the World Cup exit, last October, Farrell would not have seen so much doubt, and concern, in so many eyes.

An Irish performance littered with errors, a penalty count that went 13-5 against, Damian McKenzie playing to goal-kicking punisher role (reminiscent of Dan Parks at Croke Park in 2010), and All Blacks like Jordan, the Barrett brothers, Asafo Aumua and Wallace Sititi all having fine games. It all added up to a strange, stilted atmosphere in Dublin. The Irish supporters must take their share of the blame. Having attended plenty of New Zealand home games in the 2000s and 2010s, this felt similar to those Umaga-McCaw-Carter glory years. The home crowd would show up at Test matches, no matter the opposition, expecting to win. Expecting to be entertained.

One small yet consequential downside to Ireland’s upturn in international fortunes, over the past 15 years, is this growing sense of entitlement. Two Test wins in a calendar year was the norm, back in the 1990s, but men like Farrell, Declan Kidney and Joe Schmidt have made this side one of the best in the world. One of the most consistent. Three Grand Slams, three other Six Nations triumphs and some famous feats on summer tours and standalone encounters.

I have watched Ireland play the All Blacks in Wellington, Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Chicago and – be it old Lansdowne Road, Croke Park or Aviva Stadium – plenty of times in Dublin. Friday night was the most tepid atmosphere during such a huge fixture. Sure, the game was extremely stop-start and the Ireland performance poor, but the fans needed to bring more noise. More passion.

As for Farrell, trust from the Irish public remains strong, even after three defeats in the last five Test matches. Farrell has achieved great deeds with this Irish side

It took Ireland 111 years to get a Test win over the All Blacks. It took further wins in 2018 and 2021 to grab their attention. It needed an historic tour win in 2022 to truly win their respect. The World Cup quarter final failure and that 23-13 defeat, at the weekend, has damaged all the rivalry talk. The Kiwis think they have Ireland’s number, again. Ian Foster crowed as much with his ‘copy and paste’ jibes about the Irish attack. Robertson embraced his first mission to Dublin and looked to have all the answers. He arrived as he left – big happy grin on his face.

For New Zealand, the World Cup was revenge for 2022. So was Friday. They wanted to come to Dublin and stick a home defeat on Ireland. Let them see how they like it. It really is the Kiwi rugby mentality. They are loveably warped like that.

As for Farrell, trust from the Irish public remains strong, even after three defeats in the last five Test matches. Farrell has achieved great deeds with this Irish side. He has earned that bulwark to hold a while longer, while he gets it right. When post-match questions hovered around the match officials in Dublin, Farrell declared, “We have to get our own house in order, first.”

The assumption had been that some of the squad’s veterans would remain on into the 2025 Six Nations to minimise any disruption caused by Farrell’s upcoming Lions sabbatical. That may change, with the first sign of such arriving when Argentina arrive for a crack.

What did we learn? Well, Ireland will go into the 2025 Six Nations with the favourable draw of England and France games at home, but with a growing target on their back.

There is a sense of stagnation in certain areas of the squad. Mack Hansen, Jamison Gibson-Park and Hugo Keenan went straight back into the starting XV despite missing big, recent matches. The likes of Cian Prendergast and Ryan Baird are being kept out by Peter O’Mahony, while Conor Murray does likewise with Craig Casey. Nick Timoney, Jacob Stockdale and Dave Heffernan regularly make squads but never look close to the 23 for big matches. Cormac Izuchukwu and Sam Prendergast are now in their second extended Ireland camps but have yet to see minutes. Iain Henderson and Rob Herring had negative impacts off the bench, against New Zealand, while Murray and Cian Healy came on for the last six minutes. “What did we learn from that?” a colleague asked of me, following the game.

What did we learn? Well, Ireland will go into the 2025 Six Nations with the favourable draw of England and France games at home, but with a growing target on their back. Some sides believe they are starting to figure them out. The Irish lineout has been successfully targeted for what feels like two straight years. The ageing core of veterans may yet get their last ride, but there could be bumpy moments.

“We’re better than that,” Farrell told Virgin Media, as fans flooded for the Aviva Stadium exits. “We’re better than that.”

In Andy we trust?

Sure, but win the next one. Win the next three.

Sure. But…