The game that New Zealand Rugby has been waiting for is almost here. Their moment of truth is coming when they will find out whether a decision made 13 months ago is as smart as they believe it is.
The game is a likely World Cup quarter-final against Ireland. While it’s by no means locked in yet and Scotland and Italy will both feel they can prevent it from eventuating, it’s easy enough, using current rankings, to believe that Ireland will top Pool B and New Zealand finish second in Pool A to set-up what will be a repeat of the 2019 quarter-final.
Certainly, NZR have been thinking about this possibility – probability – for the better part of a year now. In fact, for a period in July and August last year, they thought about little else.
The drama started after Ireland did what so few teams have ever done – and certainly none of their predecessors got remotely close to doing, which was to win a series against the All Blacks in New Zealand.
It was a stunning achievement by the Irish and one they fully deserved. They played brilliant rugby at times in both the second and third Tests and over the series, were the more organised and coherent side.
But while New Zealanders could appreciate the quality of Ireland and accepted that they were a once-in-generation team, so too could they see that there were problems with the All Blacks. Big problems.
Their pack was outplayed across the three Tests and not once, not for any prolonged period, were the All Blacks forwards dominant. That they were so obviously second best confirmed what the players had made apparent in their end of season reviews in 2020 and 2021 – that they weren’t impressed with the ability of forwards coach John Plumtree or attack coach Brad Mooar.
There was a lack of imagination and discipline about the All Blacks, too and it led to a series of two strange events the day after the third Test loss.
Firstly, the All Blacks media manager arbitrarily cancelled a scheduled press conference on behalf of coach Ian Foster without telling him. She would later say she wanted to protect her coach from what she thought was going to be a savage press assault.
And secondly, an hour after the press conference was cancelled, NZR chief executive Mark Robinson released a statement which said: “Congratulations to the Irish team for their well-deserved win last night but clearly the performance across the series for the All Blacks was not acceptable as we know they have reflected. We all know there is a huge amount of work to do.
“Our focus now is to work with Ian and his team to understand thoroughly in advance of the Rugby Championship what is needed to improve performance and where to go from here. We will begin this work immediately.”
Schmidt met Robertson to tell him he was going to stay loyal to Foster, and not only that, take on an expanded role as attack coach.
Two weeks later and Plumtree and Moaar had been dismissed and Crusaders assistant Jason Ryan joined the All Blacks to take charge of the forwards.
But the axe was still hanging over Foster’s head at that point and when the All Blacks lost their next test, against South Africa in Mbombela, NZR sounded out Crusaders head coach Scott Robertson about taking over the running of the national team.
It was an in-principle conversation to ascertain who he would put in his coaching team and how he would restructure the All Blacks if he were to be given the job.
It would have been a done deal but for two things. One, the All Blacks surprised everyone when they won at Ellis Park the following week – a victory which led to a handful of senior players seeking out Robinson after the game to plead with him to not sack Foster. And two, back in New Zealand, Robertson had been asked to see if he could find room in his proposed coaching set-up for Joe Schmidt.
The former Ireland coach had joined the All Blacks in July 2022 as a selector and analyst, but could he be something more in Robertson’s regime was what NZR wanted to know.
When the answer was no – Schmidt met Robertson to tell him he was going to stay loyal to Foster, and not only that, take on an expanded role as attack coach – NZR flipped and decided to back the incumbent coach through to the World Cup.
Much has been made about the power of the player testimony, with Ardie Savea revealing in a documentary recently published, that: “Big dog [Robinson] took the feedback. Yeah, you can get people’s opinions, but you look at his fruit and his fruit is us, the players, and we’re the ones that are saying he’s a great coach.”
But the real game-changer was the elevation of Schmidt to a more hands-on role as attack coach. That was the shift that led the NZR board to say no to Robertson and yes to retaining Foster.
What they liked was his Northern Hemisphere background. He had spent four years coaching a top French club and then three with Leinster before taking over Ireland between 2013 and 2019.
He knew how to prepare teams to beat Six Nations opponents and of course, having spent seven years at the helm of Ireland, he had deep insights into how they worked and what their players were all about.
And it was this that the board wanted – his ability to help shape an All Blacks team that could beat Ireland and other heavyweight northern sides (which includes South Africa given they are now locked into European club competitions).
Here was the issue as the board saw it – the All Blacks were almost certainly destined to play either Ireland or South Africa in the World Cup quarter-final.
It is nearly time for Schmidt to show whether NZR’s gamble was worthwhile and whether he can discover the key to beating Ireland.
Which was a problem. A big problem because Ireland had beaten the All Blacks in Dublin 2018, Dublin 2021 and then Dunedin and Wellington 2022. The All Blacks had managed a win at Eden Park in the first of the three-test series in 2022 and had hammered Ireland at the 2019 World Cup quarterfinal.
But Ireland have won four of the last six they have played against New Zealand and that made the board nervous. Ireland had exposed all sorts of frailties in the All Blacks game and Schmidt was seen as the man who could best guide Foster in how to rebuild the team into one that could better compete with the Irish and by extension South Africa, England and France.
He was the man who was tapped into the Northern Hemisphere and the All Blacks desperately needed that if they were to win a World Cup against France in a play-off run that would likely pit them against the best of the Six Nations.
Here we almost are. It is nearly time for Schmidt to show whether NZR’s gamble was worthwhile and whether he can discover the key to beating Ireland.
Whatever he and Foster may have been thinking ahead of this World Cup, the enormity of what lies ahead for the All Blacks was laid bare when Ireland beat South Africa in what was an epic Pool B encounter in Paris.
It was a game of tremendous intensity and physicality – the sort the All Blacks haven’t been able to produce in the last year or so.
They are unquestionably a better side since Schmidt arrived, but as Ireland and South Africa hammered away at each other in Paris, there were a lot of New Zealanders watching and thinking it was a bit rich for the All Blacks – that Ireland are playing at a higher level to the one they were even a year ago.
The same is true of the All Blacks, but not to the same degree. They are a better team now than they were 13 months ago – physically more robust and more aware of what type of rugby they are trying to play.
But they haven’t done enough to suggest they are going to unpick Ireland in the quarter-final and unveil a whole new depth to themselves.
If Schmidt has a magic key in his possession about how to beat Ireland, he’s kept it relatively well hidden to date, but maybe that is all part of a plan that has been over a year in the making.
Ireland never passes the 1/4 in world cups. All blacks have advantage psychological. For sure , Schmidt has the key and he knows perfectly Andy Farrell and his game . All blacks will progress step by step with intensity and areas improved : discipline breakdown…
They will be better in 1/4 to beat Ireland.
Average coach, average captain, no world class players. Can't see it happening.
While you may be right about the coach and captain, they still have class players in that team. That is why they remain a threat to other teams _if _they can get selection and tactics right. Other teams know this. Foster’s obituary can start when they lose the next, terminal match but it hasn’t happened yet.
Stop smoking
Fozzie, Schmidt and Ryan have got this, one game at a time, get through Italy, Uruguay, then onto the Irish, Boks or Scottish, big 3 games coming, this is what they have been planning for.
Nobody has mention
ed Cane - as a true NZ style open side flanker he is not performing, neither is his backup Papali - with the team we currently have in France I would be putting Savea back to open side flanker for at least the Italy game - Captaincy is also a problem, I don't see Cane or Savea as international Captains - I like others have commented never liked Foster as AB selector/coach - I agree with bringing the two quality new assistants - the two assistants no longer there were Foster's pick also - I disagree with some squad selections - Clarke on Super Rugby form should never have been there - if they wanted another outside back Stevenson should have been there - just a few of my thoughts.
Nobody has mentioned Cane because he's one of the players who consistently does his job well. As for Savea he tends to be a disaster on the openside e.g. v Chiefs this year, England last year, England 2019.
I never liked Ian Foster as an All Black coach he got a free ride to the top job when Steve Hansen vacated the position to me he wasn't much of a player and secondly as a coach at provincial level so to my understanding I can't see why the NZR union has persisted keeping him in that role a change was always welcome when New Zealand rugby faltered Scott Robertson in my mind was a revelation that rugby needed in New Zealand he'd been doing great things with international rugby at a junior level and also Super Rugby with the Crusaders so why a change at the top hasn't been made in my mind is a loss to the All Blacks winning the World Cup I feel rugby in Kiwi land will never progress as long as Foster remains at the helm.
It’s all old news now. Foster is one more loss away from stepping down as All Blacks coach. Robertson will take over. That much is engraved in stone. The only question mark is which match, if any, will Foster lose.
Foster will go soon . The 1rst November razor comes.
Does no one factor in Italy?
No...
Good question. I haven’t seen enough from our AB’s since they’ve been in the Northern Hemisphere so far to be comfortable in discounting Italy at all, I’m afraid. I’m quietly confident they will, but nervous all the same. Every dog has his day.
Nope. Why should they? It would need Italy to achieve their first ever victory over nz and to do it at a rwc where teams are playing at their peak. Its possible but vvv improbable.
If the ABs keep their penalty count to single digits they'll be in good place. That's really it.
By handling themselves better under relentless pressure situations
Personally I think when two good teams play it's not unusual to get a 14 point or more swing, by which I mean good teams score points. NZ shipping some losses to good teams might not be the disaster story it's been made out to be.
My concern is NZ keeping 15 men on the pitch for the entire game. Ofa and Nepo when tired defend poorly particularly when double teaming a ball carrier trying to cross the gain-line. Rarely do they tackle low with arms instead running upright into a ball-carrier increasing the risk of any/some head contact. If I was coaching against NZ I'd be instructing my ball carriers to run at them whenever I saw them in a defensive line. They're always good for at least 1-2 penalties a game each.
Heart is ruling head here, but Scotland is going to beat Ireland and throw a spanner in the works for everyone. Everything in recent history says we won't which is why, being contrary, we will
I'd love to see that and yeah, I think Scotland are running hot and are n with a great chance.
All things being equal NZ will have to be top of their game and Ireland will have to be slightly off theirs for an NZ win - but that kind of thing happens all the time.
NZ will have to come flying out of the blocks and rack up a couple of quick tries like they did in the RC. This NZ team has responded very poorly to being 10+ points behind. They completely lose their composure and start playing 7s from inside their own half.
Ireland on the other hand have become the masters of turning the screw once they have a lead.
If this is in fact the Quarter final the score could range anywhere from a very narrow NZ win - less than 5 points, to a complete blow out in Ireland's favour a la Springboks at Twickenham.
Rubbish!
"They completely lose their composure and start playing 7s from inside their own half."
We are aching to see Barrett attack the space in front of him from his own half and cease with his prescribed contestable kicking.
NZ need to keep 15 men on the field for an entire match to compete and to guarantee a win jettison BBarrett altogether for Jordan at 15, Fainganuku onto the wing with Telea... and Dmac, Havilli/ALB and Roigard onto the bench. Barretts loss of confidence with his loss of a yard of pace is revealing.
If NZ play the same way they did when they destroyed SA in the RC they'll take Ireland by 10+. Ireland will need to have everything going their way plus bring their A game to win and even then it will be by 5 points max.
I think if NZ are on top of their game they win. But rarely are they so recently
The All Black's can take Ireland by at least 10 if they get it right on the day. They destroyed SA in the RC when they needed to so that killer mentality is still there. Ireland showed how effective they can be at the breakdown but NZ offer a very different challenge to the one dimensional SA forwards. Savea is in top form and if Frizzel is available Ireland are in for a hard afternoon at the office. Give their backs any space and they will punish you despite Aki and Ringrose playing great rugby.
Not sure I'm following your argument. I thought Savea has been pretty quiet this year after a phenomenal season last year. In the rather too frequent recent losses to Ireland, they have beaten us precisely because they have attacked our breakdown and given our backs absolutely no space. It's not new. They are fantastic and turning over ball, it's like everyone from 1-15 are on the same page sniffing a turnover. Haven't seen that for a while from our side, neither have I seen our backs try to run the ball very often either. They seem scared to get stranded and lose the ball as a direct result of Farrell's defensive strategy which has become the blueprint for beating the ABs.
Good article. The question is will the ab pack front up? We know they can. But will they?
As a staunch Bok supporter, my only comment is, write off the ABs at your peril. They have a point to prove and there is plenty of talent in their team. Like the Boks, they have the added motivation of being the first team to win the WC four times. So beware.
One final thing from me, don't be surprised if Scotland nick a win against Ireland. Not sure what the implications are for the top of that pool, but could happen.
If they beat Ireland and don't allow a bonus point they knock Ireland out because of winning the head to head. Long as they get the maximum vs Romania
I hope the ABs get up against Ireland but I also see how they could benefit by losing - ie. get rid of the clueless exec and management of NZ rugby.
This world cup could quite easily be the first ever with no southern hemisphere countries in the semi finals. That would be a big wake-up call for them all.
Full disclosure. I'm English but I've followed the ABs for about 25 years. Doesn't go down well over here.
We need some perspective when assessing where the ABs are now. Things are not as bad as some clearly think.
I was at Twickenham. And considering they played some of the match with 13 players and most it with only 14, there was quite a lot to like about the performance, particularly the defence. Which at times was phenomenal.
They will beat Italy, be in no doubt about that. The key will be emerging from the group with the first choice 15 and bench fit and ready to go for Ireland.
Ireland are playing some fantastic stuff. Andy Farrell has emerged as a brilliant coach. But there is not that much between the teams.
Remember this.
Ireland got a great win against SA in large part because the boks missed a load of kicks. Two months ago, the ABs turned the boks over handily. Not in a friendly, in a full on test match.
The quarter final will probably be very close, but equally I wouldn't be surprised if the ABs run out winners by a decent margin.
Finally, and I know plenty has been said on this already, but let's hope that no rugby world cup is again so horrendously lopsided.
A World Cup is being played in Pool A and Pool B and a tin pot shield comp is being played by the rest.
Shame on World Rugby. What a c@ck up!
Good commentary Chris - the gaps in performance are much smaller that perceived by some. I've seen some comments where Ireland were at 80% in the last game, what a joke! They were playing the best they were being allowed to.
NZ have had chance to regroup and admitted to themselves they choke at times. Whilst I'm not 100% with the quality in each position currently, they certainly have enough firepower to roll Ireland but it will be another immense game....
I agree with most of what you say. It has happened before though where teams won the RWC without playing even one top 4 seeded country. Bottom line is that you have to beat everyone else if you want to win the cup whether it's in the final or QF stage.
Ireland were very fortunate against the Boks. .got the w but we all know a couple of missed kicks was the only difference Irish front row struggled at times all top teams are vulnerable and it'll be the top 2 inches that's the decider....they got talked up last rwc and got decimated...would not write off the ABS or the Boks... 😀
is this really necessary to make such a pointless and unsporting comment...They beat us in the moment that mattered...try to see the wood for the trees.
Ireland weren't fortunate, they won the big moments and the small moments while their skill execution under pressure was exceptional. Couldn't help but remind me of the 2015 All Black's, they showed the same characteristics, and the ability to win by fine margins. The Irish showed leadership, ownership and nous from 1-15, which has been developed over quite a years. How can you call that fortunate?
I think if we look back at the last 4 years, two things majorly conspired against the playing and coaching group. One - Covid. Two - the boneheaded decision to continue Super Rugby without South Africa. I think that has a lot to do with how NZ has gone through this cycle. The covid years prevented a lot of rugby and crucial testing your player stocks and developing the team. Now we have a cheap and cheerful Super Rugby comp we need to prioritise those end of year and mid year test series against the North and also I’d suggest, South Africa.
This group of players can beat Ireland, I believe, but a lot needs to go right (no need to elaborate on any of what everyone else has said, it’s all there) but most of all having all players available for selection. Anything less than that and our backups just can’t operate at the level required. I live in hope.
Please, enough of the Covid excuses, this is introspective nonsense from Kiwis, and I am one of them. Just go back and watch the inspiring video of the Argentinians training alone in their bedrooms and garages, right before their historic win over the AB's. They couldn't even get to a training ground let alone meet each other. In Europe, people were locked up at home and was rugby cancelled while in NZ they were playing in full stadiums. Excuses don't make winners, don't buy them from Foz.
Plenty of people writing off the men in black. One thing I have learnt over 45years of watching them is that they adapt and can do things no other team can do, even including what is clearly a superb Irish team. If they can get parity or a slight edge in the physical exchanges they can run rampant. I just get the feeling though this Irish team is special and its their time. They are showing the sort of resilience and team spirit that makes world champions. If we can get past Italy it will be a fascinating watch. I would say 60 to 40 odds on Ireland but Abs will be up for it and a chance. If they did beat Ireland they will be odds on to go deep. As for France vs SA if it happens I think France will pip them. The mighty Boks can be a bit one dimensional and the French team is very multi-dimensional, it will also be an amazing game. Whoever takes out these games one of them will be RWC champ I would say. My heart says Black but my head says Ireland. Dear Mr head hopefully you are wrong lol.
One thing I've learnt after watching 4 years of Foz coaching the AB's is that they definitely cannot adapt.
I’m with you on this, Colin. I really hope my head is wrong.
Is it a matter of the coaching of the All Blacks or is it deeper than that? Look how hard it's been to find someone with go forward - Shannon Frizell has amazingly stepped up this season, possibly because he spent time playing at lock for the Highlanders. But once he was injured, the ABs have looked a bit toothless.
Consider the way super rugby is played. We aspire to play a relatively loose open running game where you take enormous risks - which works fine if both teams are playing this way. But that doesn't prepare you for International rugby which is much tighter - where running away from your support is not an option, just look how good the Irish defence was in pilfering ball from South Africa - the French did the same thing to the All Blacks, including from Mark Talea who made lots of breaks but ultimately got isolated.
I'm sure Joe Schmitt has been hammering this home with the All Blacks, but changing your natural instincts honed from years of playing this way is not easy when the heat is on. But then again is this defence/forward dominated game turning people away from the game? The game between Ireland and SA was exciting from the point of view of intensity, but wasn't a spectacle.
You are right, it's a bit of both really. But that doesn't exonerate the coach as NZ's breakdown and physicality woes were exposed way back in 2016/2017 by the Irish and then the Lions. You would think 6 odd years is a pretty good chunk of time to come up with a strategy to counter that, and there has been one common factor since then - Foz. He's more worried about his master plan of playing Barrett at 10 while disguising him as a 15.
I think Ireland are 15-20 points better than the ABs.
They look too in sync, too quick, too focused.
The ABs look disjointed and uncertain, even in that Namibia game they still made errors that will costly against the big teams.
Neither Ireland or the Springboks even conceded a penalty for a high shot or any dangerous play in that pool game that I remember. (Only watched it once though).
Still, they have the talent to pull off an upset but it would be the biggest shock of the tournament so far.
I honestly hope that Italy takes a golden, perhaps once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and enjoys an historic win. It would absolutely sum up the past four years of mindless rugby the ABs have played. I will not lambast the coach, for he put his hand up, and the board backed him twice! Foster has done his best, but his best isn't up to this level. So to the board and the CEO of the NZFU, we go. There should be a thorough cleanout of the lot of them, for it is they who are responsible for the horror story we, the fans, have endured for the past 4 seasons, and there was no need for it. Go Italy!
Hopelessly optimistic...
New coach next year and the recent review will see inevitable change at NZR - hoping for a loss is just sad.
If Italy beats the ABs then it will be grim times for us AB fans but so be it.
If the All Blacks keep 15 on the field for 80mins, with no dumb pens at set piece, they win. Ireland are playing New Zealand and their own RWC demons.
Be fair on de Groot. He dominated his side of the scrum and was unfairly penalised. That had a bearing on the match.
Lot of "ifs"...