The good fortune associated with clovers comes in two varieties. In Celtic Ireland, Druids would carry the three-leaf clover to give them a sneak preview of approaching evil spirits, enabling them to escape unharmed. The chances of stumbling across a four-leaf clover are roughly one in ten thousand compared to their more common cousins, but their power in warding off bad luck is amplified in proportion to their rarity.
Irish champion club Leinster will be hoping for a generous windfall from the gods when they encounter bitter rivals La Rochelle in the quarter-finals of the Investec Champions Cup this weekend. They have lost both the last two finals to the same opponents, by a grand total of four points: two years ago in Marseille, they were overtaken in the final minute by a try from Arthur Retiere. The result at the Aviva Stadium was no less heartbreaking last May, with Les Bagnards taking the lead for the first time in the 71st minute and hanging on to win by the slimmest of margins.
One of the themes common to both finals was the evaporation of Leinster’s scoring power in the last half-hour. The men from Dublin only chalked up one solitary penalty goal in the final 30 minutes of both matches combined. They have been hare-like out of the blocks but they have lost ultimately, to an armour-plated French tortoise.
Ex-England coach Stuart Lancaster was pivotal to Leinster’s resurrection as the most consistent European club superpower of the last seven years. The province appeared in four of the past six finals under Lancaster’s watch as senior coach, but he left for a new challenge in Paris at the end of last season. His replacement was South African World Cup-winning coach Jacques Nienaber, who has been entrusted with the task of adding that unyieldingly robust resilience down the stretch.
The ex-Springbok defensive mastermind duly obliged, tipping over Les Jaunes et Noirs in their mighty home fortress at the Stade Marcel-Deflandre in the opening round of pool matches. The 16-9 win occurred in the rugby equivalent of a meteorological squall. The men in blue not only won, they outfought the champions in their own backyard, winning that crucial last half-hour by six points to three and two penalties to one.
If that game represented Nienaber’s three-leaf clover, now he needs to unearth the four-leaf variety to beat the reigning holders at their specialty – winning knockout games when the chips are well and truly down, and there is no tomorrow.
There are some significant differences in the way Leinster are going about their business this time around. As former Ulster head coach Dan McFarland observed after a narrow New Year’s Day victory over at the RDS:
“Jacques [Nienaber] has brought in that relentlessness at the breakdown, particularly in weather. They played La Rochelle in [poor weather] conditions like this and they were ferocious at the breakdown, with multiple numbers [committed].
“They know you are not going to move the ball wide because it is so dangerous in the conditions to do that in your own half, so they pile multiple numbers in.
“We got caught with that, not aware enough, probably not committing enough people to the breakdown. We changed it at half-time, we talked about that and although it is still messy because it becomes a free-for-all all in that area, we dealt with it much better in that second half.”
Hat-trick-scorer Jamison Gibson-Park repeated very much the same message after Leinster had overcome Leicester Tigers in the round of 16 on Saturday.
“It is knockout footy, sometimes it is not always pretty. Grinding out results is important. I think we did that [against Leicester] – we managed to find a way. Next weekend, it will be no different. They have not always been the flashiest matches against La Rochelle, so I would expect the same.”
The raw stats suggest the stars could be aligning in Leinster’s favour for once. The conditions could be right for a perfect storm, with most of Lancaster’s proprietary attacking IP still fresh in the memory, but the impact of Nienaber’s defensive shifts already being concretely felt. A perfect, if momentary alignment of Ireland and South Africa, and two very different rugby planetary worlds.
On attack, the Irish giants are not quite in the same sphere of operations as last season, but they are still plenty good enough: the average number of tries scored has dropped from 5.75 per game in eight rounds last year to 4.4 in five rounds this, but the other key performance indicators have remained stable: 98 rucks set per game in 2022-23 dropping marginally to 92 in 2023-24, and the ratio of lightning quick ball reducing from 57% to 55%.
On defence, Leinster conceded an average of two tries per game last season. That figure has now dropped to 1.6 under Nienaber’s tutelage, while the average ruck speed permitted to the opposition has increased proportionally, from 4.0 seconds per ruck to 4.5.
But the biggest single change is in the amount of kicking: Leinster averaged 25 kicks per game in 2022-23, but are averaging seven more one year later. The essential shift is philosophical in nature: Leinster are now geared to dog it out, winning matches without the ball rather than simply playing their opponents off the pitch with it.
The last-16 victory was a perfect illustration of the new attitude. In a low ball-in-play match [only 32 minutes], the Tigers enjoyed five more minutes on attack than the home side, building 34 more rucks and forcing the hosts to make 38 extra tackles.
Leicester head coach Dan McKellar’s plan worked, but it still never looked like being enough. Leinster were comfortable in their own skins ‘winning ugly’, with the moments of brilliance fewer and farther between – even if there were several scintillating reminders of the old attacking cohesion along the way.
Leinster established early on they were going to break Tigers in between the two 15m lines, using their Kiwi-born scrum-half Gibson-Park as the fulcrum of attack.
Fourteen of the 15 home players are in the middle of the pitch between the two 15m lines, while there are six Leicester defenders stuck out on the left versus only two Leinster attackers.
This was the basis of the attacking platform the hosts wanted to establish later in the half.
There are 14 Leinster players between the 15s, and two sets of ‘trips’, with double back-door options behind the front man, providing depth and looking to overload the Tigers defence in midfield. Leicester again have at least three spare parts marking empty space out to their left as Gibson-Park receives the scoring pass from second row Joe McCarthy.
Leinster were able to consistently move numbers from one side of the ruck to the other more quickly than their opponents.
The telltale signs are already there in the screenshot, with five Leicester defenders facing only two Leinster attackers out on their left. After that it is all about manoeuvring and preserving space down the other side, with Gibson-Park and hooker Dan Sheehan walking the tightrope along a very skinny short-side indeed for the score.
Leinster are once again in their 14-1 overload shape – this time out to the right – but the “1” [Sheehan, out of shot on the sideline] is occupying the attention of five Leicester defenders to that side. With the home side’s ability in the short passing game, that is an invitation to disaster.
The coup de grâce arrived courtesy of a [by-now] familiar picture in 71st minute.
It is the same story of serried ranks of attackers in navy blue overloading midfield, with a thin file of unused Tigers’ defenders on the wrong side of the ruck. The only change is that it is now bench number eight Jack Conan applying the finishing touch rather than his scrum-half.
Leinster director of rugby Leo Cullen now finds himself in a position almost as rare as the recent solar eclipse. The twin rugby planets of Ireland and South Africa have achieved a moment of extraordinary alignment. The offensive innovations developed by Lancaster are still alive and well but the defensive changes implemented by Nienaber are already making an impact.
Leinster are more content to play rugby without the ball now than at any time in recent memory. In fact, under Nienaber’s guidance they may already prefer it. It will give them a sturdiness in the knockout stages of the tournament which previously may have been lacking.
They have shown they can beat Ronan O’Gara’s La Rochelle when it matters, in the final half-hour, by getting down and dirty in the trenches. This weekend it is time to back it up, and find that elusive four-leaf clover – and maybe with it, a fifth star on the shirt.
As I read your article properly, Nick, the sun is just glinting through the trees at 6.20 am, and the hint of winter is in the air, with a temp. of just under 9 C, wind chill at 6.4, but calm. The evening on Fota Island, within easy reach of Cork airport, has a similar temp. but the weather report indicates a day of showers, reaching only 13 C, and with a wind of 26 km/hr. Ronan O’Gara and his La Rochelle team flew into Cork on Monday evening, and holed up in the island’s resort. O’Gara is taking the weekend game against Leinster, up in Dublin, very seriously indeed, coming up from Capetown {with only a brief touch down in France}, where his team just scraped home, and in the eyes of most Capetonians, should not have. But they did, and another epic between the two great European giants awaits.
Much later now, got tied up today. There is still no Leinster team announced, but lots of articles around on the game. One details the La Rochelle team’s trip from CT “fly from Cape Town to Johannesburg, from Johannesburg to Paris, shuttle across to Paris Beauvais Airport, and then fly to Cork,” They would be tired boys after that. The turnaround between games is a day shorter than Leinster. So that could be a factor that helps decide this game.
The Neinaber element is what makes this game different to last year at Aviva. Your stats. show the changes he is making, Nic. The increase in kicking is significant, with, one would assume fewer handling errors for defences to counter attack from, and having to work harder to get into the Leinster red zone.
Key men for LAR: Greg Alldritt did not play in the last game in France in Dec. His presence this weekend could be pivotal. Along with Levani Botia, they can destroy ay team when on song.
Will Skelton only returned last week after a long spell out due to injury. His short pass for the try at the end in Capetown was just what he does so often. Sets up key moments in games.
Danti and Seutini in the centres are a formidable combination, the latter being a sort of silent assassin, producing great moments out of nothing. Danti is just so good all round, with his work over the ball on the ground a huge asset.
Key men for Leinster: Gibson Park just seems to get better as the years pass. With retire of Sexton, would say he is now more pivotal for Leinster.
Hugo Keenan at the back is always a bulwark, and his attacking flair sets him very high in the ranks of world class fullbacks.
Who plays with Joe McCarthy is of great interest. Some feel that Jason Jenkins may start for extra physicality
With 30000 tickets sold by Monday night, this will be a sellout game in all probabiliy. Lar are not rollo=ingas smoothly this season, and maybe this time that four leaf clover you cite, Nick, will see the Leinster men home.
Nick, do you think that his influence on so many of their test players could give Ireland the resilience to take that final step to greatness?
You convinced me not to watch this game. Thanks.
How are Leicester allowing themselves to fall into these positions with huge number mismatches?
The pass to Sheehan to open them up was a pearler. Love how he is playing right now
I almost asked you about this game earlier this week, Nic. And here you have written an article on it ! It is late here, and I will be reading fully tomorrow morning, and commenting.