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LONG READ Rassie Erasmus, the ultimate high-stakes gambler, goes 'all-in' and wins big again

Rassie Erasmus, the ultimate high-stakes gambler, goes 'all-in' and wins big again
1 week ago

In the end, the Springboks did what they do best. Blitzing the final quarter with the rapid volley fire of fresh, powerful bodies as their opponents starved in the altitude of Ellis Park. At the controls, high in the sky of his eagle’s eyrie, sat the modern mastermind of the 23-man matchday squad, South Africa’s head coach Rassie Erasmus.

If there is a more innovative coach in use of the bench at any sport, let them put their hands up now. Erasmus pioneered the shift to six forwards and two backs, then gambled with a 7-1 split before the biggest tournament on the global stage, against their greatest rivals.

Rassie is never happy unless he is treading the high-wire in selection and pushing the envelope to its absolute limits. If he ever gives up rugby coaching, he has a future as a Texas Hold ‘Em poker player, because he never fails to back his own judgement, push the chips into the middle of the table, and go ‘all-in’.

That represents a huge test for every antagonist, because they know the Springbok figurehead will leave no stone unturned in his quest to squeeze the absolute maximum out of the 23 men at his disposal. In the build-up to the first game against Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson’s All Blacks, he even managed to convert 23 to 24 when he added Eben Etzebeth to his matchday squad after the 125-cap giant had originally been omitted with a knee injury.

The late shift ruffled more than a few Kiwi feathers. While Robertson was able to keep his sense of humour intact – “Changing again have they, another one?” he commented with a grin – not all were so fortunate.

Broadcaster Scotty Stevenson fired off an extraordinary broadside at Rassie on his radio show SENZ Radio Show Scotty & Izzy.

“Does he just treat the world like his own kind of empire now, does he?

“If Eben Etzebeth has been named on the bench a day after he’s been ruled out with a knee injury, he was never ruled out.

“That just doesn’t happen. The games this guy plays, there’s a part of me that says, ‘well played, sir’. There’s another part that just gets sick of it.

“Is it just me, or is Rassie Erasmus looking every day more like Baron Vladimir Harkonnen, leader of the House of Harkonnen from Dune?

“Honestly, he’s just sitting there and he had the countenance of Jabba the Hutt [Star Wars] – just holding court and knowing he was the boss of his empire in that moment.

“It’s one thing to play games, it’s another to just straight-out lie about your team list… You know, it’s just gaming the system.

“And I know he’s treated as king in South Africa, but you know, gee he treads a line, doesn’t he?”

Even leaving the uneasy mix of Sci-Fi movie constellations aside, this is the textbook definition of ‘getting under the skin of your opponent’ [and their supporters]. The truth only really emerges in the final sentence: Rassie treads a fine line, but that is because he is riding so high in the risk-reward spectrum.

If he falls, he knows only too well he will have to carry the can in the media aftermath. But the sheer range of his pre-game and in-game experimentation, to find the right combinations of personnel to win a Test match, have to be fully understood to be believed. They are probably unequalled in the professional era, and there is no high-stakes gambler quite like Rassie.

With South Africa missing five top second row forwards due to injury, and three lineout captains among that quintet of Franco Mostert, Lood de Jager, Jean Kleyn, RG, Snyman and Salmaan Moerat, Erasmus was forced to call up a one-cap 4/6 hybrid from Montpellier [Nico Janse van Rensburg] and rely heavily on a two-cap lineout skipper [Ruan Nortje] against the Boks’ fiercest rivals.

The volume of in-game juggling he performed within the available parameters was astonishing. He started with a back-five forward unit composed of: 4. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 5. Ruan Nortje, 6. Siya Kolisi, 7. Ben-Jason Dixon and 8. Jasper Wiese – then began tinkering within the first half-hour of the match.

The lineout captaincy alone swapped between Du Toit and Nortje on four occasions. Rassie changed the entire structure of his back five twice: first with big Eben arriving permanently just before half-time, which pushed Du Toit back to number 7 in place of Dixon; second with the Stormers lynchpin moving back into the row 10 minutes after half-time and Kwagga Smith added to a new back-row; third with Du Toit restored to the blind-side flank and Nortje finishing the game in the middle row after Kolisi was replaced on the hour.

Most of those calls involved a big gut-check by the Springbok head honcho and they did not always work out as desired. The Bokke lineout fell to pieces temporarily, losing two of its own throws during Du Toit’s second spell as lineout skipper between the 51st and 61st minutes.

But the gambles ultimately paid out: Rassie saw he needed to replace both Wiese and Dixon after a fumbling exchange between the pair led directly to a New Zealand score in the 33rd minute.

 

 

Captain Kolisi is waving his arms in dismay at that un-Springbok like offloading attempt on the halfway line. It gives the All Blacks a prime countering opportunity on the turnover which they do not neglect. Dixon was gone for good five minutes later, with Wiese following him only three minutes into the second period. Rassie is as ruthless as any high-flying Harkonnen.

After all the experiments had concluded, Erasmus finished with his most effective back-five forwards on the day – Nortje and Etzebeth at lock, with Du Toit and Smith manning the flanks and Elrigh Louw at eight. With that combination on the field in the final quarter, the Springboks won the last 20 by 14 points to nil and overhauled a 10-point lead established by the All Blacks.

With all three of Eztebeth, Nortje and Du Toit on the pitch, the Boks were able to make New Zealand’s kick-off receipts look as fragile as they had in their round one loss to Argentina. First Etzebeth forced a handling error on a kick-off chase straight up the middle just before half-time, then the Bokke big men all appeared on the same side of the field a couple of minutes after the break.

 

The commanding presence of Nortje and Louw on South Africa’s receipts gave scrum-half Grant Williams an armchair ride by contrast.

 

 

The Springbok kick-off receivers always seemed to be in position A1 to beat the first tackler and take play well beyond the claustrophobia of the 22m zone.

The trio of big lineout men at 4, 5 and 6 also tightened the driving maul and gave it added punch at a critical time in the game.

 

 

In both cases it is Nortje making the catch, with the same tried-and-trusted blocking front around him – Etzebeth on the short-side corner, Du Toit on the infield edge. In both cases the All Blacks suffer from their inability to break up that power-packed triumvirate, and it cost them a yellow card on Ofa Tu’ungafasi in the first instance, and another penalty on Samipeni Finau in the second.

He may have drawn a bit of jocular humour from Robertson, and some edgy opprobrium out of Stevenson, but it will not worry Erasmus in the slightest. He won his coaching battle where it mattered – out on the field and in the build-up to the game.

In the absence of five top second-row choices he had to keep some cards up his sleeve and play ‘smoke and mirrors’ in selection week, sliding out his 125-cap ace only when the right hand presented itself. During the game he was unafraid to take significant risks, benching his starting number seven before half-time and switching lineout callers on four separate occasions.

But if Erasmus is a born gambler, he is also a calculating card-counter at rugby’s poker table. He may have to go ‘all-in’ next week in Cape Town too, where even his World Cup-winning skipper may not be assured of a starting berth. A national sporting icon relegated to bench duty? Surely not – but don’t bet on it, not with South Africa’s smiling supremo pulling the strings.

Comments

169 Comments
M
Mitch 11 days ago

Of the new Bok forwards, Elrigh Louw and Ruan Nortje have impressed me. Ben Jason Dixon not so much but he's just starting out so time is on his side. You could argue that the bench won New Zealand the match at Loftus in 2018 after they had been outplayed for much of that game. The All Blacks outplayed the Boks for the first hour but the quality of the Bokke bench proved decisive.

N
NB 11 days ago

Yes a good point of comparison M, and the ABs will be worried by perfomances in the last 20' of games so far. Louw looks like he#ll be a permanent fixture at 8, with maybe Cameron Hanekom his main challenger...

F
Forward pass 12 days ago

yes he goes all out and forks over the millions of Rands to a Ref and TMO but its not a gamble. Its well and truly paid for.

If they are so good why do they rely on corrupt officials to win the big games?

T
TB 11 days ago

Don’t know why you write trash like that. You are alluding to conspiracy theories and that the Boks have the Referee world in their pockets.


What planet are you from mate..?

R
RW 11 days ago

Silly

O
Otagoman II 12 days ago

I have a suspicion that Ellis Park was the shot the ABs fired but still came up short. Rassie would of learnt a lot of his team from this game and will have them be more clinical.

N
NB 11 days ago

It will be interesting to see who improves the most OM. Rassie took more chances with his starting 15 and in-game subs, while NZ have to do something about the fact they have scored zero points in the final quarter. Suggests they have not found the right bench.

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