In the first episode of Chasing the Sun 2 – a documentary series about the Springboks’ 2023 World Cup campaign that is currently airing in South Africa – director of rugby Rassie Erasmus unpacks the “Four Big Games” strategy and explains why the marquee clash against Ireland was never going to be as important as the opening game against Scotland.
While it’s a fascinating admission, it’s not exactly surprising. Erasmus’s Boks have targeted specific games for the better part of six years, winning 68% of all Tests while claiming a series victory against the British & Irish Lions as well as two World Cups.
Top coaches typically target seven wins at a World Cup – four during the pool phase in addition to the three playoffs. But Erasmus, who has won back-to-back World Cup titles with the Boks despite conceding big losses during both the 2019 and 2023 pool phase, has aimed lower.
In 2019, Erasmus was confident that Japan rather than Ireland would top Pool A, and face the runners-up of Pool B – which included New Zealand and South Africa. While Bok fans lamented an early loss to the All Blacks as if it was the end of the world, Erasmus assured his charges that they only needed to beat Namibia, Italy and Canada to qualify for the play-offs.
He simplified the equation further by stating that four big games remained, namely the match against Italy and the three knockout fixtures. As it happened, the Boks thrashed Italy, and went on to beat Japan, Wales and England in the playoffs, before lifting the title.
As soon as the next World Cup draw was confirmed, Erasmus revisited his “Four Big Games” strategy in preparation for the 2023 tournament in France. He accepted that the Boks would play the hosts or their traditional rivals in the quarter-finals, and having no preference, targeted just one of the pool fixtures against tier-one opposition.
In Chasing the Sun 2, Erasmus went into this strategy in more detail.
“If you beat Scotland, then you have another three big games, which is the quarter-final, the semi-final and the final… because you should beat Tonga [and Romania]. If we lost to Scotland, then we knew that we hadn’t played one of our four big games… then we had to beat Ireland.
“I didn’t have a preference of New Zealand or France for the quarter-final, so when the guys were analysing – and they did a shitload of analysing – I said, take your focus off Leinster and La Rochelle and the way they play.
“Scotland only has two teams, Glasgow and Edinburgh. Our big game is Scotland. Everybody was a little bit pissed off the first day I said that.”
Indeed, many people tend to lose their minds whenever a coach states that a 100% win-record is unattainable, and that they have other priorities to consider.
Fans throw their toys whenever squads are rotated or key players are rested. Loaded terms such as “disrespecting the jersey” and “a lack of ambition” enter the discourse, with little acknowledgment for the game’s player management challenges.
Erasmus made a series of statements regarding his plans for the short and long term at a recent press conference in Cape Town, and as you’d expect, the reaction was mixed.
The Boks are prioritising the 2027 World Cup, and ultimately the prospect of a third-successive title. While Erasmus wants the Boks to become a more consistent outfit over the next few seasons, he won’t lose any sleep over win percentages.
“I would rather win the World Cup than sit at 88% of Tests won. That, for me, is a better result than consistently not winning the World Cup at all but being in the 80s.
Rassie Erasmus
“In building a squad and trialling guys, in giving opportunities and always looking to improve squad depth and changing the way we do things to stay cutting edge … sometimes you have to try things,” the Bok coach said.
“We certainly did lose a few Test matches in the last couple of years between Rugby World Cups by trying things to know the answers for when we get to the World Cup.
“It would be wonderful as head coach if we do better between World Cups, but then again, don’t you want to peak and already have all the answers at a World Cup?
“I would rather win the World Cup than sit at 88% of Tests won. That, for me, is a better result than consistently not winning the World Cup at all but being in the 80s.
“I would love to get that winning percentage up, but we surely have to be brave and take chances with youngsters and get those things right.”
Ireland won four of their five games in the recent Six Nations, and enjoyed a win-record in excess of 80% in 2021, 2022 and 2023. For all of that success, however, they are yet to progress beyond the World Cup quarter-finals.
As it stands, we have the two leading rugby nations on opposite sides of this debate.
While the Boks have proved that they can win World Cups, they have have lost a number of marquee Tests in-between World Cups – and have failed to capture a few other annual titles in the process.
Ireland have dominated in the northern hemisphere, and have shown that they can win in Australia and New Zealand in recent years. They will have a shot at a historic series victory in South Africa this July.
Nevertheless, the question of their World Cup temperament will continue to loom large until they clear that hurdle – and in 2027, that could be a tall order, given that they will be without Jonathan Sexton, Peter O’Mahony and several other veterans.
Andy Farrell and Erasmus have work to do with regards to bringing the next generation through and rebuilding a well balanced squad in the coming seasons. The latter recently stated that the Bok squad that travels to Australia will boast an average age of 30.
Andy Farrell and Erasmus have work to do with regards to bringing the next generation through and rebuilding a well balanced squad in the coming seasons. The latter recently stated that the Bok squad that travels to Australia will boast an average age of 30. A number of uncapped players are on his radar – 16 were invited to an alignment camp earlier this year – while the youngsters who toured with the Boks last year should receive more game time in 2024 with a view to 2027.
Perhaps the Boks will go on to win a third-consecutive title and add to their legacy. It’s tempting to say that such an outcome would compensate for a dearth of big wins and titles in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
The truth is that the Boks have the quality to improve on their win-record, and shouldn’t settle for the status quo.
They may lose a few games along the way, as Erasmus rotates his squad and experiments with new players and combinations. Whether they should be excused for winning 69% of their matches over a four-year period – as they did in the last cycle – and failing to lift a single Rugby Championship title is another story.
Erasmus has said that the overriding goal is to win the 2027 World Cup. But if the team doesn’t secure big results, particularly in the early part of the 2024 season, all of his best laid-plans will be severely compromised.
The first clash against Wales at Twickenham is a potential banana peel. The Boks will be without most of their best players, as the game will be staged outside of the international window.
The Japan-based Boks and a clutch of youngsters will have to get the job done. While it’s a great opportunity to test the depth and tick the development box, they don’t want to lose to the Six Nations wooden-spoon holders just a couple of weeks before the series against Ireland.
A best-case scenario sees the Boks beating Wales and securing a series win against Ireland. They should be too strong for Portugal, even if they decide to field some of their fringe players in this fixture.
The double-header against the Wallabies will present a series of challenges, given that the side has a new coach in Joe Schmidt and the fact that the Boks have lost every Test bar one in Australia over the past 11 years.
Having won four matches, they would be ideally placed for what could be a monumental Rugby Championship campaign.
The double-header against the Wallabies will present a series of challenges, given that the side has a new coach in Joe Schmidt and the fact that the Boks have lost every Test bar one in Australia over the past 11 years.
That said, it may take some time for Schmidt to rebuild the Wallabies, and the Boks should be favourites to win at least one of those games.
Fortunately, the Boks will have a couple of weeks’ break between the second game in Australia and the first of two games against the All Blacks on South African soil.
They came close to securing successive victories against New Zealand in 2022 – and winning the Freedom Cup for the first time since 2009 – only to fall short in the latter game staged in Johannesburg. It’s fair to say that they have a score to settle, although the All Blacks will be equally desperate to prove a point, given what transpired in the 2023 World Cup final.
Erasmus has played down the importance of consistent results in the wake of the 2023 World Cup. And yet, he will know what a series win against Ireland, a Freedom Cup series victory and Rugby Championship triumph will do for the team on several levels.
If the team ticks all of those boxes, Erasmus will have more freedom to experiment on the November tour to the northern hemisphere.
On the other hand, if the Boks suffer a historic series defeat to Ireland and go yet another season without the Freedom Cup and Rugby Championship titles, the need for results will be greater and Erasmus will feel the pressure.
Rassie and nienaber were there for the crunch games and I would personally scarifice the win percentage for back to back world cups.
Remember joe schmidt for Ireland focused on small details and planned everything meticulessly but once it was found out Ireland were beat everyday of the week.
Rassie and nienabers willingness to expirement with players and strategyies is there point of difference while also sticking to the core of south african rugby.Forward dominated with unblievably talented backline with great instincts
That is why rassie in my opinion resorted back to pollard as he knew he would give him consist performances which he knew labbok couldnt and he knew for the crunch games you need worldclass goal kickers
Monty. The new Nigel.
Win% NZ:
2019 - 70%
2020 - 50%
2021 - 80%
2022 - 62%
2023 - 75%
Ave: 67,4%
Win% RSA:
2019 - 83% 🏆
2020 - DNP
2021 - 61%
2022 - 61%
2023 - 85%🏆
Ave: 72,5%
Win % IRE:
2019 - 79%
2020 - 77%
2021 - 70%
2022 - 82%
2023 - 92%
Ave: 80%
Considering that South Africa achieved an average win ratio of 72.5% over the course of five years, it prompts the question:
Would it be worth sacrificing the glory of winning two Rugby World Cups for a relatively small increase of 7.5% in win ratio?
The numbers suggest that the margins between these formidable teams are closer than one might realize or even give credit for.
However, it’s remarkable to note that despite the competitive win ratios, one team has secured two Rugby World Cups while the others have yet to claim any, underscoring the importance of seizing key opportunities in major tournaments. Winning the big games.
That’s the real difference. And the hallmark of a great team.
Strange sentiments coming out of the pacific. World Cup Trophies pale in comparison to win ratios.
Noted.
Take your pick:
Win% NZ:
2019 - 70%
2020 - 50%
2021 - 80%
2022 - 62%
2023 - 75%
Ave: 67,4%
Weeks at no1 WR Ranking: 48
Win% RSA:
2019 - 83% 🏆
2020 - DNP
2021 - 61%
2022 - 61%
2023 - 85%🏆
Ave: 72,5%
Weeks at no1 WR Ranking: 162
Win % IRE:
2019 - 79%
2020 - 77%
2021 - 70%
2022 - 82%
2023 - 92%
Ave: 80%
Weeks at no1 WR Ranking: 67
Surely it’s feasible for them win close to 80% of their tests and be formidable in World Cups.
Every team and coach facing the prospect of playing the Boks over the past 5 years would tell you theyre pretty formidable. Who cares what non-Bok fans think?
If world rankings are useful for anything, SA were no.1 for 160+ weeks between 2019 and 2023. The weighting favors wins against higher ranked teams. Versus Ireland’s 60+.
Quite literally, if SA had not lost games to NZ, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Over the same period Ireland lost a few games to England. Much lesser opponents imho.
There’s no trophy for win ratio.
Foster experienced the roth of abs fans through inconsistency and dropping winning percentages . The message to foster here was an unequivocal unacceptable response. As a fan I wouldn’t be happy with rassys trial an error rugby. He was practicing his strategy right up and including wc games. Just a miracle the saffas lifted the trophy.
And what strategy did your team practice up until losing and having nothing to show for it?
You say a miracle and I say a well executed plan that made fools of the arugant Northern Hemisphere teams and laid bare the decline in NZ rugby.
What a load of BS. A story to fit the narrative. Now its ‘only the RWC matters’ after SA win the LOTTO Cup due in large part to good fortune and 50/50 refereeing interpretations. Now Rassie has a ready made excuse for not winning RC titles or losing against Ireland, or any team. because he will say “I was experimenting for the RWC 1/2/3/4 years away”. Try telling football fans that the European Championships or Copa America dont matter as long as they win the World Cup. Over history, the All Blacks and Springboks earned their reputation as the behemoths of rugby union because EVERY Test mattered. For NH teams the 5N/6N mattered, and the Grand Slam even more so. But a win vs Boks or All Blacks was treasured even above that. How convenient that the “88% team” is the same team that has beaten Boks 3-in-a-row and 8 of the last 12. But Rassie disrespects those Tests now as ‘experimenting players for RWC’. The incessant whinging by Springbok coaching staff and, obviously, their fans is what makes the neutral fan revere the All Blacks who not only go in to every Test as heavy favourites but play with an attractive ball-in-hand style. Luck will inevitably run out for SA and the hubris will invite large doses of overdue schadenfreude.
I don’t think the ABs were going into “every test” as heavy favourites over the past 4 Years. Were you under a rock or an ewe?
And let’s not discuss the ABs record against Ireland or France either. It would be inconvenient to your “argument”.
You are delusional, the NZ domestic rugby and super rugby competitions is dying a horrible death and arrogance is all you have to hold onto. So you keep typing up your long comments and Rassie will keep doing what he does and we will see what happens.
Different countries, different expectations.
Foster did not deliver enough over four years to keep NZers happy, even if the All Blacks had have won the final he would still be known as the coach who lost back to back tests at home, lost a home series, first losses to Argentina etc.
Other countries would have been happy with 68% win rate and making a WC final.
I’d rather the All Blacks be consistently dominant rather than dominant for 7 weeks once every four years.
Yep, agree.
That’s a nice sentiment and all.
But if you were to poll all the professional rugby players in the World, I’m pretty sure they’d mostly want back-to-back World Cups.
It’s what all black fans are used to and expect. Great comment matt
I always wonder how the narrative would have been different if Ramos didn't miss that penalty in the QF or if France went for the line rather than posts. Or if England scored when they were 5m out.
It's easy to say you prefer to win the world cup when you win it but not being a dominant team inbetween is why SA will never be in the same conversation as the 2015 All Blacks.
We lose to France in the world cup and Rassie would have resigned, people would have questioned why he went with such an old squad and the Springboks 2019 victory will just be seen as lucky.
That’s the danger of putting all your eggs into the world cup. Your team never defines an era like England, Australia, NZ and soon France and Ireland will.
Wow, there is a lot of what if's and maybe's in your comment. But you see, Rassie is a visionary, and not everyone can appreciate or comprehend the vision shared by Rassie, his coaches, the players and us fans. So if I was you, I would be very concerned with the horrible state of the NZ domestic and super rugby competitions. There is a true danger that NZ rugby has reached its pinnacle in 2015 and its only going to be a rapid decline compared to the rest of the world. Let Rassie do Rassie things and concern yourself with the state of your own game. Just a thought.
😁
“Never in the same conversation” is a bit harsh.
Between 2018 and 2023:
- 7th to world number 1
- win a World Cup
- don’t play rugby for close on 18 months, warm up against Georgia, players missing training due to COVID
- Beat the British and Irish lions.
- maintain world no. 1 spot for the majority of weeks until
- winning a second World Cup, having to beat all the top ranked teams in the world along the way.
What more does this bok team need to do, to feature in the same conversation as the All Blacks team of 2015?
- win a RC?
- beat wales at home once
- beat France and Ireland on end of year tours (which were narrow defeats)
- beat the ABs at Mount Smart.
- not lose two games to the wallabies.
There were literally a handful of games that contributed to the Boks less than stellar win ratio. And a sh1t ton more to celebrate them as one of the great teams of the modern era.
There is no narrative around - what if they hadn’t have won the World Cup - because they did. They succeeded. Why should we wonder about what if they hadn’t?
I wonder what will happen if they win in 2027?
What if they beat Ireland and NZ at home? And this years RC. Things that can actually happen.
A world cup win trumps all
Rugby. The only game in the world where being world champions is looked down upon.
Wow, brilliant summary.
As Murray Mexted once said…coach is only as good as the cattle he has in his possession …but Rassie seems to have a magic wand…albeit with a decent bunch of desperate South African sportsmen looking for some hope and joy in their lives.
Irrespective of next W.Cup outcome Erasmus will go down as a legendary coach. Taking the Springboks of no hopers ranked way below lesser mortals and achieving what he’s done is mind blowing!
Heaven forbid he does 3!
Perhaps other teams should take a page out of the Boks approach.
Perhaps being under pressure to win everything all the time is not so smart. Context is very important.
The All Blacks are a great example of being under pressure to win every game they play. Will this help Razor in the short term? It didn’t help Foz. He was on a knife edge from the beginning of his term.
Ireland will have that expectation placed on them. It didn’t fair well for France whose public had/have very high expectations.
Coming out of England, recently, it seemed like Borthwick was on the chopping block until that win against Ireland.
Perhaps managing expectations and being clear on the goal/s and the reasons behind them is smarter. Rassie has done exceptionally well at this.
A couple of things.
The only pressure Rassie will be under - will be to win the World Cup in 2027. That is what South Africans (the only people that matter in all of this) really want.
They understand - much like this author alluded to in quoting what Rassie had literally told South Africa from the beginning - is that the WC is the ultimate goal. That along the way there’d be losses, but they’d be calculated. Part of the innovation and ongoing development of the team.
Wales is not a banana peel.
The team from SA is likely going to be so far removed from anything anyone has seen before (much like the Chicago test in 2017 or whenever) for two reasons. 1. Players not available 2. Using the game to give new and young players a debut. Expect to see a new 9, 10 combo. Expect to see new locks. New hookers. Expect to see a new captain. Expect to see Japan players off the bench. It will be a time to rest key players (playing in Europe) and give youngsters a Twickenham test. Invaluable. Worth risking the loss.
The fact that Wales will likely still lose this test is the talking point. And if they win. Good on them beating a young inexperienced, experimental, team.
Rassie and co. Will surely be wanting to win both Ireland tests and All Black tests. These are “the four big games” this group will be targeting in this period of time. What the win ratio looks like after November - is irrelevant right now.
The boks will know the importance of these games to (1) keep the Irish out and (2) win the RC. Beating the all blacks twice at home is a huge opportunity. And many of the outgoing players will want a RC under their belts before they retire.
But they won’t give a rat’s bottom about win ratios. And neither will South Africans so long as the Boks win the games that matter.
If you believe that then you’ve got a marbled brain. Accepting a loss to Wales for most saffa fans would be totally unacceptable.it
Well 68% over a 4 year period is really the hallmark of a middling team but the Boks experimented alot and really only got up to 68 because they peaked so well last year. Having said that I think many people forget the Springboks lost a complete year of development during covid and played 0 matches in 2020. The provincial structure, Currie Cup and Super Rugby Unlocked saw the SA players fall so far behind that when they entered the URC in 2021 they were an absolute shambles and could not buy a win. This is the exact reason they denied the rugby championship in 2020 as they had no fit or game ready players. Its remarkable that the Springboks went on to win the world cup when you look at the impact of Covid on player development and the Springboks and just what SA rugby lost. Now they have the benefit of an extra year and an opportunity to create cohesion. Rassie knows he needs to get at least 10 to 15 new players in and needs to cap many of them at least 30 times before the next world cup to stand a chance. He also knows that the game is changing and laws are shifting so changes will need to be made. He may just need to experiment more than the fans would like and so the Boks may just go another 4 years at 68%
Yes, because Covid only impacted SA. The victim mentality.
The boks finished 2023 with a 84% win ratio and a World Cup. Beating all the top ranked teams along the way. Beating the ABs by a record margin on the road to France.
By comparison, Ireland are bundled out in the QFs and lose to 5th seeded England. Yet are still revered.
This article is premature and, to your point, ignores the achievements of getting through 2021 and only having 2022 to really get going.
I hope the boks tighten the screws in 2024 - so we can see what else one could possibly critique them on.
The win ratio argument is getting tired.
Total nonsense. Started well and concluded, clearly and correctly, that holding two wc’s and a bil series win easily trumps an 88% win record with losing every wc QF. Then starts to talk about Rassie being under pressure if they don’t beat wales! And even more if they lose to Ireland in the summer. Complete Horlicks!!!
Rassie is a genius coach, albeit one who steps over the line at times, who has more than earned the right to do things his way. And depart, when he eventually does, very much on his own terms…