LONG READ 'Schmidt will not be forgiven or forgotten if Wallabies suffer Bled-bath'

One proud rugby nation is coming off two narrow losses to the world champions in South Africa, the other is looking to bounce back from a record defeat in Argentina. New Zealanders will be grinding their teeth in frustration, that they were not able put away at least one of their matches in the Republic. Australians will be crossing their fingers the All Blacks do not take it out on the Wallabies. The scene is set for a Bledisloe Cup bloodbath – a Bled-bath.

At the magnificently named Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López, Joe Schmidt’s charges set a new and unwanted record in Australian rugby. The 67-27 defeat in Santa Fe eclipsed the previous historical high for both points conceded and the overall points margin, a 61-22 beating at Loftus Versveld by the Springboks back in 1997.

In the aftermath, Schmidt had to cast his fishing line way out from shore to find any crumbs of comfort, although it is doubtful anyone was biting.

“Records are going to happen,” he said in his press conference. “I mean, Argentina put a record score of 38 [points] up against the All Blacks in New Zealand. That’s what they’re capable of. No team has ever scored 38 points against the All Blacks in New Zealand. That’s what they can do.

“They can score quickly – on the back of some really powerful ball-carriers, some athletic backs and some smart passing and linking play. As soon as you’re not making the first tackle, they’re through your line. It’s very hard to plug the holes after that.

“After four halves here in Argentina, three of them were at a [competitive] level and one of them did fall off a cliff. I am not going to bury the squad on the basis that one half is well beyond what our expectations are.”

‘The Pumas are high-scoring team who can put points on anyone’, ‘one half of poor football should not obscure three halves of decent play’. The Wallaby supremo went on to summarise his version of a PMA – positive mental attitude: ”To be 20-17 ahead at half-time, to be 20-3 ahead after 30 minutes, I think we’ve got to try to anchor on those things.”

The true emotional impact of such a trauma is likely to run far, far deeper, and it was perfectly encapsulated by ex-Wallaby lock Justin Harrison on Stan Sport after the game.

“That will sting. It doesn’t just hurt for a little while. There will be a part of you, a small part, it will get smaller and smaller. There will be a part of you that will hurt and remember that for as long as you are alive. As a Test player, you do remember things like that.”

If you have to lose, you want to stay in the fight at least. You do not want to utterly lose the faith, to fall apart so completely you leak 36 points in the last 20 minutes of a Test match. That will undo most of the good work you have done hitherto.

There were so many areas requiring urgent repair that Schmidt will probably appreciate the fortnight’s breather before the All Blacks arrive at the Accor Stadium in Sydney on 21^st September. In the process, Schmidt will need to re-examine some of the strategies which served him so well in his previous incarnation as a successful coach of Ireland.

The bench front row struggled to contain the Argentine scrum, and Brandon Paenga-Amosa surely now must be introduced to add some starch in the middle of the trio. After a promising beginning at the restarts led by young lock Jeremy Williams, the exit strategy fell apart as the Wallabies struggled to adjust to the strict five-second rule at exit rucks.

Jake Gordon was hurried into one first-half block-down by Tomás Lavanini, Australia got no distance when they fired the ball back to fly-half Ben Donaldson, and the final straw came when they passed the ball back meekly into their own in-goal area after Josh Nasser had won a priceless turnover near his own line.

In the first instance, after an excellent first-wave carry by skipper Harry Wilson, Australia only need to run one more phase towards midfield and split the right foot of Donaldson and the left boot of Len Ikitau to either side of the ruck. That would give the exit strategy some options and some breathing space, but instead the Pumas are able to pour through on the sole kicker and force Donaldson to hook the ball into touch.

In the second example, Nasser’s turnover is wasted by the lack of organisation behind him. Ikitau is down injured, Andrew Kellaway is running away from the breakdown, Gordon is nowhere in shot and Donaldson does not take on the responsibility as acting scrum-half.

That growing uncertainty at exits was also linked to the major problem of the game, the Wallabies’ reluctance to attack the second pass on defence.

Australia lose the ball at a kick-off receipt, and hooker Julián Montoya is under no particular pressure to ship the ball on to lock Guido Petti, then prop Thomas Gallo. The primary issue Schmidt will need to confront over the next two weeks is a pattern of defence which stops moving upfield far too quickly, and cycles sideways and backwards when the second pass is made.

Laurie Fisher is coaching a scheme which is not dissimilar to the one Schmidt used in his time with Ireland over ten years ago.

In the final minute of that titanic tussle between the Schmidt’s Ireland and Steve Hansen’s New Zealand, the All Blacks were able to make the second pass on no fewer than 10 occasions under no stress from the emerald green defence, and that is what ultimately cost Ireland an historic victory.

Argentina head honcho Felipe Contempomi cut his teeth as an attack coach in Stuart Lancaster’s innovative system at Leinster, and he has brought it with him, freshly packaged and smelling of daisies, back to his homeland. If you consistently back off and turn down the opportunity to pressure the second pass against that system, it is equivalent to rugby suicide, and the warning signs were there from the beginning in Santa Fe.

If the defender scanning the second pass does not come further upfield, it gives the Pumas’ ‘three-man stack’ behind him license to roam, and pick the right hole at their leisure. Another 30 seconds into the sequence, and the Wallabies are still sitting in the lounge with their feet up, waiting for the attacking play to unfold around them.

The passivity of Australia’s second-man defence encouraged the home side to play out increasingly from positions deep in their own end.

That slow slide to the touchline first opens up a needle-sharp cutback run for number eight Juan Martín González, with the tackle on the second phase of play being made near the Australian 22. Both centres, Hamish Stewart and Ikitau are already jogging back towards their own corner flag. Argentina win a go-forward penalty from the breakdown and three minutes after the move started, Montoya is celebrating a try on his 100^th cap.

Argentina ran riot because Australia never changed their defensive pattern to prevent a series of ‘rinse-and-repeats’ and upset the model. They accumulated some huge statistical totals in the process: over 1200m run, 14 clean breaks, 17 offloads, and a colossal 81% of lightning-quick [1-3 second] ball from the ruck.

By the time that fateful final quarter began, the urgency of the Australian defence had wound down like clockwork toy, to a state of complete inertia.

After the Pumas win a breakdown turnover on halfway, Pablo Matera has all the time in the world to make an outrageous step, carry the ball up himself, pass right, or pass behind to Tomás Albornoz circling behind him. He could even have made himself a cup of tea, for all the pressure on the pass the Wallabies are bringing. By that stage, Contepomi’s men knew they could take the width of the field whenever they wanted it, and attack from anywhere. The wider areas were their prairie, their pampas, and the width opened a global depth of possibility.

Somehow, in the space of only two weeks, a Kiwi coach far from his own homeland has to haul the broken pieces of Australian rugby together again to face the players, and the opponents he knows best of all. It will be an arduous task. New Zealand will be hurting, and a wounded All Black is a dangerous animal indeed. Two defeats in a row are barely conscionable, three on the trot is beyond the pale.

Schmidt must go back to the kind of basics which should have been ingrained at Super Rugby level – get out of your end without avoidable mishap, defend aggressively against the second-man play. His old charges will not show any mercy, and Australia’s patience with Kiwi rugby coaches is notoriously fickle.

Memories are too recent for that pain to have healed. To rephrase Harrison’s words: “It doesn’t just hurt for a little while. There will be a part of you that will hurt and remember that for as long as you are alive.” Lose heavily to New Zealand, and Schmidt will not be forgiven or forgotten, and even his stellar coaching record will count for nothing. It could be a Bled-bath.