LONG READ Signs of promise that Wales' barren run is over and brighter times lie ahead

Attendees at newspaper sub-editor school tend to learn on their very first morning about the perils of suggesting a struggling sports team have hit rock bottom.

However, flick back to the 1990s and a brave local publication dared to offer exactly that view for one of the clubs on its patch who had just suffered a heavy defeat.

Sadly, and not altogether unpredictably, the following weekend saw the beleaguered side in question endure another flogging, more savage even than the previous Saturday’s leathering, leaving one nonplussed sub wondering how to headline a match report that told in grim detail how matters were still deteriorating, with rock bottom evidently yet to be reached.

Then there was 1989, when Wales finished joint-last in the Five Nations. After they fell 31-12 to France in the penultimate round of that year’s championship, also losing the try count 4-0, one chap on the media circuit came up with the notion that matters couldn’t get any worse. Big mistake. Six months later John Ryan’s team finished second best in a warm-up match against Bridgend.

So what of the current Wales side after nine successive Test defeats? Heading into the autumn series, can we say they have bottomed out? Can we feel confident enough to declare that the worst is behind Warren Gatland’s team? Grapevine murmurings suggest that indeed is the view of some inside the Wales camp.

The coming weeks will let us know whether such optimism is justified.

From this vantage point, maybe it feels safe to suggest that green shoots are not completely absent from the picture looking ahead.

The evidence is incomplete, but there are signs of promise in a number of areas. Youngsters are starting to acquire maturity, while several older heads are either back in the fold for the coming Tests or could be back for the Six Nations in the shape of Taulupe Faletau and Josh Adams, while Liam Williams has reportedly been training with the squad these past few weeks along with the other two.

There will be plenty tempted to write off the soon-to-be 34-year-old Faletau on the grounds of age and the many injuries that have come his way. So durable in the early part of his career, seemingly immune to the toll elite rugby takes on the body, he has been chased around by bumps in recent years, with one knock following another. But he has indicated he still wants to play for Wales and indeed push for a Lions tour spot next summer.

The first challenge will be to get him on the field again, but – understatement of the year alert – the venerable No 8 is a player worth keeping a place warm for, not least because he has experience, game skill, game knowledge and class to spare. He just needs peak fitness and a squirt of luck to complete the package.

Should he make it back, Wales could potentially field a back row of Aaron Wainwright, Faletau and Jac Morgan, a useful unit by any standard. Also, using Wainwright at six would allow Gatland to stay in step with the likes of New Zealand, South Africa and France who see a hard-driving, explosive blindside as a must-have accessory in the modern Test game. Anyone wanting confirmation on that score should watch a recording of Wallace Sititi’s effort for the All Blacks against England last weekend. Power, pace, fitness, intelligence, and he’s only 22. Without him, the visitors to London would have lost.

But the certainty is Gatland will be pleased with Morgan’s form.

Against Edinburgh recently, the 24-year-old seemed to be everywhere at once and a few more places besides, operating with eye-watering physicality. Few players manage to halt Duhan van der Merwe in his tracks; Morgan rag-dolled him backwards.

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Head of physical performance Huw Bennett takes you behind the scenes as the squad took on the infamous bronco test ahead of today’s rugby session 💪👇#AutumnNationsSeries pic.twitter.com/cecM3rpvOe

— Welsh Rugby Union 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (@WelshRugbyUnion) November 1, 2024

Tommy Reffell will contest the No. 7 shirt with him, but with Wales short of forward ball-carriers, maybe Morgan’s ability to drive through tackles just keeps him ahead of the Leicester Tiger. Behind those two, Taine Basham and Josh Macleod have both been playing well, with Dan Thomas and Dan Davis and the upwardly mobile young Osprey Harri Deaves adding depth to the equation.

Options elsewhere are not looking bad, too. Dewi Lake, a standout on the tour of Australia during the summer, has been consistently strong for the Ospreys, while Ryan Elias is reliably whole-hearted and Evan Lloyd is a firecracker of a player who has a turn of speed, power and the ability to win turnovers. All three could potentially be more accurate at lineout time, but with Elliot Dee also set to be in the mix when he returns from injury, Gatland is on his way to having his long-term pool of hookers sorted.

At lock, the returning Will Rowlands and Adam Beard will give Wales a lift this month. And while Dafydd Jenkins and Ben Carter are ruled out by injuries, the national team management feel the pair are youngsters of considerable potential. When Rhys Davies and James Fender return from knocks, too, and with Freddie Thomas also in the picture, there could at last be genuine competition for spots in Wales’ engine room.

What of other areas where the outlook appears to be improving? In midfield, Cardiff’s Ben Thomas is emerging as a genuinely creative option. All it needs now is for Gatland to give him a run of games in the 12 shirt. Other possibilities include the 6ft 4in, 16st 3lb Scarlet Eddie James, who is blessed with skill as well as size, while Max Llewellyn and Mason Grady have similar physical dimensions to the young west Walian. True, there isn’t a warrior centre in that mix, a Scott Gibbs for these times, but a coach can’t have everything.

If solidity in defence is the requirement, Owen Watkin scores well, while Johnny Williams runs hard and Nick Tompkins hasn’t played close on 200 games for Saracens without having much to offer. In the pipeline, the rapid and skilful Macs Page is a player who could have a significant future.

There is stardust at scrum-half in the shape of Tomos Williams, while Gareth Anscombe should calm matters at No. 10 and, when he returns, Adams will add proven quality out wide. On the evidence of his performance against Queensland in the summer, Regan Grace could also prove an asset when he shakes off his latest injury. The cross coder brought a Rugby League player’s attitude to defence in that game, with every tackle made to count. Blair Murray? So far with the Scarlets, he has impressed on both sides of the ball. Just maybe, he could make a mark in the international game, too.

All plus points, then, but there are still challenges. From somewhere, Wales have to find a Test-quality scrum, because there is little that’s more deflating for a set of backs than to see their set-piece given the accordion treatment.

Is there a Test-quality tighthead out there who can anchor Wales in the pushing and shoving game and avoid leaking too many penalties? Henry Thomas, Keiron Assirrati and Archie Griffin will all want to provide a positive answer to that question.

And what of the fly-half options beyond Anscombe? Gatland has shown loyalty to Sam Costelow, who has had a patchy start to the season, but the Scarlet needs to kick on. Ben Thomas offers cover and Dan Edwards would have trained with the squad this autumn but for concussion, while Ioan Lloyd is out of favour and Angus O’Brien weirdly has never been in favour.

Wales could also do with developing another full-back or two to provide competition for Cam Winnett, which is presumably why they asked Dragons youngster Huw Anderson in to train with the squad alongside Page for this autumn’s games.

But let’s see how all this plays out.

Wales will hope the worst is behind them, and there are grounds for cautious optimism looking to the medium term. Maybe a win or two might even be sneaked from an autumn programme that sees Gatland’s team face Fiji, Australia and South Africa.

There again, as a Nobel prize winner once said, prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.

The next eight matches, covering this month’s Tests and the Six Nations, will tell us much about where Wales and their head coach are going.