LONG READ Wales ‘must end barren run soon or losing could become ingrained’

“You should remember your defeats, and learn from them,” famously reckoned Sean Fitzpatrick, the man who kept Warren Gatland out of New Zealand’s Test team when they were both vying for the same shirt as players. But what if a team has lost nine in a row? That’s quite a lot of learning to be getting on with – some would say bordering on too much, if there can be such a thing.

It’s where Gatland’s Wales team find themselves today, though.

A 36-28 loss to Australia has left the class of 2024 just one setback shy of the national team’s all-time worst run of 10 consecutive reverses, endured on Steve Hansen’s watch during 2002 and 2003.

Presumably, the tale of woe wasn’t what the Welsh Rugby Union had in mind when they brought back Gatland for a second run in the Wales head coach job after the ousting of Wayne Pivac in December 2022. The thinking would likely have been that the man who had a gate named after him at the Principality Stadium when he left in 2019 would breeze back in, make a quick assessment of the situation and then start thinking six impossible things before breakfast, before turning every one of them into reality.

But life isn’t that easy.

To be fair to Gatland, a major rebuilding job was on the agenda for whomever succeeded Pivac, with a core of senior players having called time on their Test careers in rapid succession.

And there have been hints of progress.

A glass half-full take on matters after the latest defeat, for instance, would see much focus put on the immense leadership and play of Dewi Lake, a man who, to adapt a line from one Edmund Blackadder, wouldn’t recognise a lost cause if it painted itself luminous green and danced naked on a harpsichord, singing, ‘Lost causes are here again’.

Wales still lost. They made unforced errors, had an unreliable lineout, were indisciplined and their attack behind the scrum wasn’t consistently fluent.

So good was the 25-year-old hooker in Melbourne last weekend, his effort might have been signed off by the aforementioned Fitzy in his pomp.

There was also a fine show from the tyro Archie Griffin, making only his second start in senior rugby, the first having arrived against Australia the week before. The 22-year-old completed 39 tackles over the two games, missing just two, while putting in 14 carries. Such numbers are not normally associated with tighthead props. Nor was Griffin’s scrummaging the worst. Whisper it, then, but it may be safe to hope – no more than that at this stage – that Wales have found a No.3 who could turn out to be the genuine article.

A nod, too, for James Botham, who came up with his strongest performance as a Test player, filling in admirably in the carrying stakes for the absent Aaron Wainwright. Along with the 67 metres he made with ball in hand, Botham put in a dozen tackles. His was an effort to be proud of.

But Wales still lost. They made unforced errors, had an unreliable lineout, were indisciplined and their attack behind the scrum wasn’t consistently fluent. They allowed Australia to build a 17-0 lead and couldn’t maintain momentum after cutting the deficit to just two points early in the second half.

Below the line on certain websites, there was no shortage of contributors dealing in industrial quantities of woe. The question of whether the glass was half full barely came into it. More than a few, in fact, appeared to see barely a drop of encouragement for tomorrow. For some, there seemed to be trouble detecting anything more than splashes of misery ahead.

Nor did Sunday morning bring positivity. A totally unscientific survey of three fellow newspaper buyers found despondency winning out over optimism. One chap, his patience seemingly exhausted, even wanted to segue from criticising Gatland into a less-than-flattering critique of Welsh politician Vaughan Gething. Cause for concern? Possibly. For if there’s one thing more troubling than caustic criticism, it’s apathy, and especially when there are tickets to sell.

Maybe the situation will be turned around next season.

Wales are closer to Hong Kong China than they are to South Africa, the number one-placed side. For the avoidance of doubt, that means something has gone drastically wrong.

But, certainly, the 2023-24 campaign has been grim for Gatland and his players, with just five wins from 16 games seeing the Red Dragons descend to an all-time low of 11th in the official world rankings. In terms of points accumulated in the ratings table, Wales are closer to Hong Kong China than they are to South Africa, the number one-placed side. For the avoidance of doubt, that means something has gone drastically wrong.

The Springboks themselves have played Gatland’s team a couple of times during the campaign, scoring 13 tries and racking up 93 points over the two games. France helped themselves to 45 points in Cardiff and Wales bowed out meekly against Argentina at the quarter-final stage of the World Cup, with an unbeaten pool stage campaign ultimately flattering to deceive.

Nor has every observer been able to detect a coherent playing style of late. In an insightful analysis in his capacity as a Sky Sports’ pundit during the first Test against Australia, Dan Biggar said: “I think Wales have got to work out whether they are going to be a possession-based team or a territory-based team.”

A territory-based team, he went on to outline, would look to play all their rugby in the opposition half, wait for mistakes and take their points and score from mauls. A possession-based side would keep the ball for long periods, move it and try to test the defence. Seemingly, for Biggar, Wales in Gatland’s second stint in charge had yet to make clear what their identity truly was.

Selection could also do with settling down. Take the situation at No. 10.

The American detective fiction writer Raymond Chandler once reckoned: “There is no bad whisky. There are only some whiskies that aren’t as good as others.” Much the same used to be said about fly-halves in Wales.

Some of those used at fly-half this term haven’t appeared ready for the role at Test level. Of the younger brigade, all have work to do.

Can we still say the same? Maybe the man to ask is Gatland.

In 12 months, he has used six different players – Biggar, Sam Costelow, Owen Williams, Gareth Anscombe, Ioan Lloyd and Ben Thomas – in the Wales No. 10 jersey. The former England wing Chris Ashton recently described the use of so many different faces in such a key orchestrating role as ‘wild’. You could probably fill the Principality Stadium with people who’d agree.

It’s all very different from how it used to be, when Gatland relied mainly on Stephen Jones and James Hook as his fly-halves initially during his 2008-19 incarnation as Wales head coach before gradually upgrading Dan Biggar. Between them, those three made 195 starts in the No. 10 shirt for Wales. There was not only quality and experience but also continuity and know-how. Team-mates and coaches knew what they were getting.

By contrast, some of those used at fly-half this term haven’t appeared ready for the role at Test level. Of the younger brigade, all have work to do.

Yet credit Thomas on this tour. He has a nice passing game and vision. The problem for Wales is that Cardiff have been playing him mainly as an inside centre and have signed a specialist fly-half in Callum Sheedy, with Tinus de Beer also on their books after a fine debut season. Do the national selectors see Thomas as their No. 10 moving forward? If they do, he needs to be playing regularly in the role at regional level.

Or will Anscombe return to the fore? To do so, he needs the rugby gods to cut him some slack when it comes to injuries, then he has to bang in a run of games with his new club Gloucester. But the 37-cap playmaker has ability and experience. Depending on how far ahead Gatland is looking, Anscombe could prove the man to calm matters in the No. 10 role, allowing younger rivals the time and space to develop further.

Wales will have gone a year without winning by the time they face Fiji on 10 November. How many coaching teams in any sport can you think of who’ve survived such a statistic? Not many.

A further indication of flux comes with the nine different half-back combinations Wales have deployed since last August, while midfield has been another area where continuity has proven elusive, with seven partnerships over the campaign. In Australia, the favoured centres have been Mason Grady and Owen Watkin. Again, it’s early days, but it would be a push to suggest the pair have sparked.

Grady is an athlete who has played most of his rugby for Cardiff at No. 13 or on the wing, with his old coach Richie Rees saying recently he felt the 6ft 5in player needed time and space to be most effective. It goes without saying that in the rush-hour that is the inside-centre channel, there isn’t much time and space. Decisions have to be made in micro-seconds and skills need to be intuitive. Passing is often seen as important.

At this point in his career, Grady might be more suited to a wider role, where he can use his pace. There again, Wales appear happy with his work at 12, and Gatland isn’t renowned for changing tack easily.

Such are the issues for the head coach, Rob Howley and Co to ponder during the time off that is likely to be theirs in the coming weeks.

In the blink of an eye the clocks will be turning back and Fiji will be hitting town for the start of the autumn Tests. No doubt the experiments in selection will continue through November and possibly into the Six Nations. No doubt, too, the learning for a young group will carry on apace. But let’s hope someone remembers to stress the importance of results.

Wales will have gone a year without winning by the time they face Fiji on 10 November. How many coaching teams in any sport can you think of who’ve survived such a statistic? Not many. While we’re about it, how many sides in sport have gone a year without banking even a solitary success? Not many.

Gatland knows as well as anyone else that Wales’ barren run needs to end quickly. At the top of international sport, the bottom line is winning.

But, of course, Wales have a long-term goal, namely to become a team to be reckoned with come the 2027 World Cup. Such an objective is laudable, but Gatland’s group need to start posting a win or two sooner rather than later, otherwise losing could become ingrained in the collective mindset. Worse still, the Welsh rugby public may start to lose interest.

For Test rugby isn’t just about an event every four years that may or may not see Wales reach the knockout stages.  What goes on in between matters, too. Certainly, the Six Nations matters, not least to those who shell out for tickets.

There again, Gatland is probably bomb-proof for now, with the WRU unlikely to have the money  to contemplate another cull of their coaches – even if they wanted to, which is far from clear.

But he’ll know as well as anyone else that Wales’ barren run needs to end quickly.

At the top of international sport, the bottom line is winning.

Fitzy knew that, even if he always learned from his defeats.