The words of Rob Penney in February have turned out to be prophetic indeed. Like Jacob Marley’s ghost, they have returned to haunt the Waratahs organisation he left behind. Before the beginning of Super Rugby Pacific 2024, the Crusaders head coach responded to reports the New South Wales board was ready to swing the axe, and decide the future of his successor Darren Coleman by the end of March.
“If that’s accurate, which I understand it is, they haven’t learned anything, have they?” Penney told The Roar.
“I feel really sorry for Darren. No one should be put under that sort of pressure under the situation he went into. It was always going to be a project.
“We’ll probably catch up on the sidelines [ahead of the second-round match between the Crusaders and Waratahs at AAMI Park].
“I reached out to him when I left – just offering anything I could do to support his incoming.”
On 28th March 2021, much the same happened to the New Zealander, cut adrift unceremoniously only five matches into the Super Rugby season. Penney’s role was assumed by his assistants Chris Whitaker and Jason Gilmore, who failed to win a match for the rest of the season.
If you sense something is rotten in the state of Denmark, you would probably be right. Nobody is entrusted with the task of rebuilding the Waratahs for very long. The restoration clause has a hidden termination date, the trap can be sprung at any time, and the coach is always the man to blame.
In Coleman’s case, a vicious 2024 front-row injury curse was conveniently forgotten. Eight of Coleman’s ten original props or hookers suffered season-ending injuries, and the head coach has been reduced to picking hookers straight out of club football to fill the gaps. It did not matter. On 20th May, Coleman’s departure was confirmed, even though he had led the club to play-off appearances in each of his first two seasons in charge.
A player exodus from Daceyville is likely to ensue: all-world flanker Michael Hooper has already taken wing to the HSBC SVNS Series, while Will Harris, Ben Donaldson and Kurtley Beale [who could have been a top-drawer mentor for young Max Jorgensen] have gone to the Western Force. Other luminaries such as Ned Hanigan, Lachie Swinton, Izzy Perese, Mark Nawaqanitawase and even skipper Jake Gordon are at various stages of following them out of the door.
Promising young players including Harry Wilson and Sione Tuipulotu’s younger brother Mosese, who should be keen to stay, are deciding to leave for foreign shores instead. Australia is losing the micro-battles to build national depth by qualification – via grand-parentage or residency. Mosese sees Sione’s 25 Scotland caps and what a key player he has become for his adopted country. It provides a clearly-defined career path for the younger sibling.
Even those who do travel in the opposite direction, such as leaguer Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i, will find themselves in an unwanted struggle for their places in an overloaded backfield.
‘High-performance function’ is an organisation-wide responsibility embracing recruitment, player identification and development, and sound cultural values. Above all, there needs to be absolute mutual trust between administrator, coach and player, with no hidden agendas.
It is that cultural battle new Wallaby head honcho Joe Schmidt will have to fight with one hand tied behind his back over the next seven weeks, before the two-Test series against Wales. With one heartbeat state dysfunctional, a second expansion franchise under imminent threat [in Victoria], and third still struggling to establish its winning credentials [in Western Australia], he will build his hopes around established facts in Canberra and Brisbane.
Thus far in 2024, the Brumbies and Reds have accrued 84 points between them, 27 more than the Rebels, Force and Waratahs combined. In this article published seven weeks ago I outlined the shape of a likely Wallaby 36-man squad. How does it look now?
In the backs, Suliasi Vunivalu shot himself comprehensively in the foot with the recent double trip red card, and Nawaqanitawase is the only other outstanding big wing in Australia. Schmidt may find a spot for James O’Connor to play the same mentoring role for two young 10s as Nic White performs for the nines.
Up front, the return of hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa to the Force gives Mike Cron a very timely reinforcement at scrum time. When he left for Montpellier three seasons ago, Paenga-Amosa was the biggest and the best scrummaging rake in Australia, and he has lost nothing in comparison with his adversaries in the Top 14. The big man is raring to go.
“I’m so keen to be back in Australia, it’s home,” he said. “I’m really excited to be a part of the Force set-up, especially working with ‘Cronno’ [Mike’s nephew Simon] and the lads that are there.
“Returning to Australia and putting my hand up for the Wallabies again was a big attraction after three seasons in France.
“I’m big on culture on and off the field, so adding to the culture that is already being established is one of the key focus points for me.”
Again, that same word – culture. The key change will occur in a rearrangement of back-five resources. If Will Skelton starts, it will either mean a shift for Seru Uru or Nick Frost to number six; or picking Queensland captain and lineout caller Liam Wright there instead.
In league terms, Wright ranks first in lineout takes, second in attacking ruck attendances [210], sixth in tackles completed and seventh in breakdown pilfers. He is the understated Queensland workaholic, happy to do his work in the shadows, unseen.
But his value is known and understood by the cognoscenti. With Wright and Uru working in tandem early in the season, the Queensland lineout was running at a 90% retention rate and they combined for nine receipts per game. Seru Uru returned for the round 14 game against the Force, and the slickness of the Queensland lineout operation quickly flooded the attacking body of the whole with confidence, like a blood transfusion.
It is the first attacking lineout of the match, and Wright has the confidence to enter late and call the throw straight over the top, knowing a fake jump at the tail will also take out his main opponent Izack Rodda in the air, along with his back-lift, hooker Tom Horton.
Wright and Uru are also the twin keys to a successful Reds’ four-man line.
The slick interplay between Uru and Wright once again breeds the confidence to take on the best defender and win prime-quality ball where you really want it – from the tail of the line.
The two-phase Queensland try in the 16th minute was as much a reward for the Reds’ excellent lineout variations as it was for the cohesion of their back play.
This time Uru collects the throw in the four-man line, and the Force D loses track of the movements of blind-side wing Mac Grealy [in the white hat], perhaps mindful of the damage he did starting much closer to the lineout fringes at the beginning of the game. From the Maroon perspective, it all works like a well-oiled machine.
The single biggest advance in the quality of Liam Wright’s play lies in the extra effort and nuance he has added to his ball-carrying.
Those extra YAC [yards-in-contact] count for a lot, leaving two defenders prone on the wrong side of the ruck as Tate McDermott stoops to play the ball in the first clip, while the quick thinking to release the ball and play it again instantly results in a clean break in the second. Eventually the frustration at being unable to stop Wright on the ad-line boiled over, drawing a yellow card for a high hit by the Force’s Reed Prinsep.
‘They haven’t learned anything, have they?’ The words of Penney must be burning in the ears of New South Wales administrators. Dismissing coaches in mid-term is classic counter-culture, if you have any intention to build a culture on solid foundations.
If Hamish McLennan’s gleeful ‘coup’ in signing Eddie Jones before the 2023 World Cup was not enough to prove it, surely the dangers of doubling down and claiming ‘given the circumstances, I would probably make the same call again’ should have been enough to close a circle of needless errors.
In Coleman’s case, it did not. His replacement was apparently mooted as early as the end of March, one short month into the Super Rugby Pacific season. For Schmidt, it means there are only two cultures he can fully trust, and those are in Canberra and Brisbane. To paraphrase the English historian Arnold J. Toynbee, ‘civilisations [cultures] die by suicide, not by murder’. The bulk of Schmidt’s picks will come from the Brumbies and the Reds, with no apology offered.
Surely the common denominator is that NSW has had both Aussie and Kiwi coaches without really achieving much - Michael Foley, Darren Coleman and Ewen McKenzie himself coached the Tahs for 66 games!
Cheika has been the only one who has reversed the trend in the last 20 years.
YAC (Yards after contact in Gridiron football) is a key indicator of victory in football. The more YAC yards given up the less likely you are to win. This is a key stat to analyaze in football and we use it in our rugby tackle analysis.
Yep I first started using it around 2004 and it really makes a diff to your anaysis of ball-carrying effectiveness.
This is a bit dramatic for me, I think the Rebels and Force cultures would be very strong, and if a player is chosen from either, you can be confident they are in a good head space and ready. Whether they quite have the technical or tactical foundations of the other two states is where one would way their risk of selection.
I see no need for Schmidt to worry about that risk in this squad. The main reason I could see a predominance of players from Brumbies and Reds, is simple cohesion. What might the coaching group make of what’s lacking in the Tahs, and to a lesser extent Rebels and Force’s, franchise?
Certainly sides (players) that are running irish plays like we saw from that lovely McDermott long ball with have a head start. I hope the players can continue it at International level. Really liked what I saw of Wright (don’t normally focus on players and just hadn’t seen a lot of him anyway) in that game, can see him being a glue in a Wallaby side too. A with the similar worry of selecting players like Ryan, I think it unfounded to worry so much about forward balance at the moment. Including both Wright and Skelton in the same lineout is not going to lose you games gainst Wales. Nor will any unknown weakenss Wales might find in Ryan be exploited to any great extent. It is the perfect time to introduce such a young player.
What other shortcuts might Schmidt want to make now, just a year out from hosting BIL? When Gamble came on the scene I thought he had a Pocock ability to break game apart along with performing the role of a openside well. I would be very keen to drop Leota/Hooper for Gamble, and in your squad make up, include Uru as a lock. Did you forget to remove Vunivalu from your team? Would you have Meafou in your squad if you could?
A successful culture has to have experience of winning - either most of its matches or some silverware Jon.
If it doesn’t - as is the case with the Force and the Rebs - you can never really be sure what will happen when players from that background play at a higher level. Do they have winning habits? You can’t be sure.
Why would you prefer Ryan to say Corey Toole?
P.S I replaced Vuni with Marky, maybe that hasn’t cme across! And yes, Meafou would be in, matural rep for Skelton.
Interesting article, Nick. Feel really sorry for Coleman, esp. with the injury woes not being taken into account, and his fate being sealed by the end of March. He did last longer tha Richard Graham at the Reds in 2016. They sacked him after only two games.
The Waratahs have played enough good rugby for parts of all games I have seen to show he and is coaching team are competent, and with a fully fit squad I would wager they would have won games this year. I seem to recall a lot of enthusiasm for him in 2022, his first year with the Waratahs. How ephemeral that was.
Liam Wright is rising with the Les Kiss tide for sure. I wonder if his leadership on top of his lineout prowess might give him a crucial edge at Schmidt’s selection table. It is a shame Harry Wilson is injured, for these early games, as that Qld unit was operating really well. All three men are now powerful ball carriers, Add Uru to that list two. He almost always makes ground in contact, and is a clever offloader as well.
Speaking of offloads, that work by Meafou in the opening mins. of the Cup Final in London was something else. With his size and power, and still just 25, he may end up an even better player than Skelton.
As you will know it is almost impossible to overcome such a spate of front row injuries, especially when they invclude one of your few world-class players in Angus Bell.
The interesting thing thing about HW’s injury is that is has given John Bryant a chance, and he looks like he may be a player.
Yep Meafou has room to improve for sure, though Leinster will be kicking themselves in the foot [again] - even last year they would have won that final easily - but might not have gotten past LAR in the quarters!
Why do you pick the most boringest rugby nation to talk about Nick?
Because we have the most exciting potential to be number one, if it wasn’t for the Tahs and kiwi coaches constantly sabotaging us.
🙃😅
/signing off