LONG READ What trends you should be looking out for in this year's Six Nations

Progress in rugby isn’t linear. Think back to the Dupont Law which came into our lives most prominently at the last Six Nations. The law, which wasn’t new, stated that players could be put onside if the kicker, or someone behind the kicker, ran past them or if the player catching the ball moved a few steps forwards. Nothing had changed in the laws, but suddenly there was no space for kick returners and more incentive to kick the ball long. That fundamentally changed the sport until the loophole was closed. The Italian Fox Defence had a slower build-up, it had been used by club sides in New Zealand and by Australia before it was wheeled out against England, but that had a similar potential to change the game were it not outlawed soon after.

These moments had sudden and unpredictable consequences for rugby. However, there are changes that we can predict based on the evolving trends in the game. Let’s see what to expect at this year’s Six Nations.

Kicked Out

You might not have realised but the amount of kicking is dropping. The Premiership this year has seen a 17% drop in total kicking compared to last year according to Oval Insights data. In the URC and Top14 the difference is less but still trending downward. It’s not just fewer kicks though, there’s also more carrying. From just two years ago, the total number of carries is up around 20%. Those aren’t carries battering against brick walls of set defenders who don’t need to worry about kicks however. Stats for Clean breaks and defenders beaten have also increased from two years ago. This is Golden Age of running rugby and I would anticipate continued gradual shifts this year towards less kicking, more carrying, and more successful carrying. Happy Days!

Inside Number Nines 

Remember back to mid November and the social media fun we had around Costelow gate? That was Wales’ loss against Fiji when Sam Costelow came on for an injured Mason Grady, didn’t have a great game, and Warren Gatland then stoked the fire by explaining that Costelow shouldn’t have come on and it was meant to be scrum-half Ellis Bevan. In that same game, Bevan did end up coming on and scoring when fly-half Gareth Anscombe was injured late on. With the rise of the 6-2 split, teams will need to use their scrum-halves in some other role as injury cover. So far, that role has been as a capable cover for a winger but there’s no reason why teams couldn’t be more creative with this. There has been lots of talk of teams using two scrum-halves and splitting the pitch down the middle. I don’t think we’re going to see that, the benefits are too small for it to be worthwhile. But, I do think we’ll see scrum-halves deployed not just as competent wingers when needed but genuine attacking weapons that smart coaches can use to their advantage.

Short Stuff

We don’t talk about kickoffs nearly enough, despite the fact clubs are placing more emphasis on it. The recent law change, which allows players to call a mark from a kickoff, appears to be a solution in search of a problem and will probably slow the game down. I understand the theory. Long kicks lead to a minute or so of shuffling around before the team belts a kick back and we have a lineout on halfway. But, the stats say that teams should already be going short even without the lawmakers input. The downside to a short kick is that if you don’t reclaim it then you’ve handed your opponent valuable territory. That is a negative but it’s eradicated by all the times you retain possession plus the times your opponent wins possession but it’s scrappy and very difficult to plan anything from. I don’t think we’ll see short kicks more often than long ones for a few years but I think we’ll see a surge this tournament.

Spitting the Dummy Out

It’s not good news if you’re a hooker. Lineout success rates continue to fall since 2020/2021. That’s caused by pesky coaches and lineout callers who want balls won more towards the back of the line than the easy throws to the front jumpers. There has been a 10% drop in the number of throws that go to the front and an almost 25% increase in throws to the back. Confusingly though, teams have got worse when throwing to the back of the lineout. In 2020/2021 it was 81.6% and it’s now 75.5%, but throws to the front haven’t changed in their effectiveness. That means we have to recalibrate what we think of as a successful lineout team this tournament. In the past we might expect to see some teams hitting 90%, or certainly high 80s. I don’t think that will be the case here as teams give up possession in favour of better attacking platforms.

The other change is what we’re going to see when teams bring the ball to the ground from lineouts. In the past, we’d expect a maul a little over 50% of the time but that’s been consistently falling and been replaced by dummy drives designed to tie in the forwards and then find space. What hasn’t changed is the amount of time teams go off the top which has stuck resolutely around 25%. So when you see a lineout this Six Nations, expect the dummy maul. Or don’t, because that’s what they’d expect you to do and they might just maul it instead….