Where the 2025 Six Nations represents opportunity for the three most stable and established nations [Ireland, France and Scotland] it represents challenge for the remaining three [England, Wales and Italy]. All have a point to prove: for England, that they are not as poor as their string of November results suggested; for Italy, that they can continue to improve into the top half of European competition; for Wales, that they can win a match – any match – in their current period of turmoil.
Can England win the race down the final furlong?
Steve Borthwick’s England have shown they are capable of mixing it with the best, the problem has been getting across the line with their noses in front in a photo finish. Last July, the men in white led by 15-13 and 17-14 in their two tour Tests in New Zealand, only to lose the first game by one point and the second by seven.
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Woes in the fourth quarter
It went from bad to worse in November, with England leading the same opponents 22-14 entering the final quarter only to lose 22-24. Against the Wallabies the following weekend, Borthwick’s charges led by two points with the clock already in the red, only to concede a try on the last play. Even versus world champions South Africa, England were one point ahead in the 58th minute only to lose by nine, 20-29. The first item on Borthwick’s menu will be creating a winning mentality and correcting a last quarter cumulative scoreline of minus 33 from those four games.
Can England arrest their defensive slide?
The second major issue will be correcting a deterioration on defence triggered by Felix Jones’ unexpected departure after the tour to New Zealand. Under the Irishman’s auspices, England gave up 19 tries in seven games, at an average of 2.7 per game, with five of the seven matches played away from home. With Joe El-Abd replacing Jones for the Autumn Nations Series, they were conceding 14 in four matches on their own patch, at 3.5 per game. The lack of coaching continuity has been a concern: England rushed fore and aft under Jones, but the rush is far more selective with El-Abd in harness.
In their November matches against the southern hemisphere ‘big three’, England were rushing on the likely first receiver, but relatively soft and leaving inviting spaces underneath him. Defence outside was significantly more passive than it had been under Jones.
Will Borthwick keep the same back-row structure?
Even with Bath’s Sam Underhill out injured, Borthwick has selected no fewer than four natural open-side flankers in his 36-man squad [Ben Earl, the Curry brothers, Tom and Ben, and Henry Pollock, who will play for England Under-20s this weekend] which suggested the existing structure – with Earl featuring at number eight – would continue. So it has proven, with the Curry twins chosen either side of Earl for the opening match in Dublin.
![England rugby](https://eu-cdn.rugbypass.com/webp-images/wp/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GettyImages-2182510770-1-1024x576.jpg.webp?maxw=766&comp=95)
This is hard on Saracens eight Tom Willis, who has the best stats of any back-rower in the country so far this term, and starts on the bench. Willis’ presence as an extra ball-carrier would enable Earl to shift back to seven and encourage England to play more ball-control offence than they were capable of in 2024, thus keeping some of the pressure off El-Abd’s ailing defence.
Key questions
England should enjoy an excellent base in the tight five, with Borthwick running a lineout consistently above 90% retention rate, Will Stuart maturing nicely at tighthead prop and U20s sensation Asher Opoku-Fordjour hot on his heels. The question is, how do they best use that platform? With the defence unreliable and a tendency to wilt under pressure late in games, there is a strong case for the inclusion of Willis at eight and a shift towards better ball control and higher ball-in-play time. That follows the current model in the Premiership, and most of the England players would be quite comfortable with the change.
What can Wales salvage from the wreckage?
The clouds which seem to have been looming on the horizon for the better part of a decade: that 1. the regional system would stop creating winning cultures and hence, players with a winning mentality from them, and 2. Warren Gatland would no longer be able to buck the trend at national level, are finally enveloping, and blackening the outlook for the Welsh professional game. This season’s Investec Champions Cup was the first without Welsh representation, and that tells the story of the game below national level eloquently enough.
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After a solid showing at the 2023 World Cup, Wales have lost 12 games in a row in Gatland’s second tenure as national coach, and he has many issues to address.
Find a reliable tighthead prop
Wales’ scrum penalty differential in the Autumn Nations Series was minus 10 and most of the issues centred around finding a tighthead who can replace Tomas Francis and ‘the Bomb’ Adam Jones adequately. Wales can field a useful tight five in four of the five spots with Nicky Smith, Dewi Lake or underrated Sam Parry, Will Rowlands and injury returnee Dafydd Jenkins in situ. The choice at number three for the Six Nations will be between Cardiff’s Keiron Assiratti, Sale retread Will-Griff John, who is an injury doubt for the opening rounds, and ex-Bath and England veteran Henry Thomas, now with the Scarlets. All will want to avoid the fate of Archie Griffin in the November match against South Africa. Griffin is ranked no higher than third in the tighthead pecking order at his club Bath and was pitched in against one of the best all-round scrummagers in world rugby, Thomas du Toit.
‘No scrum, no win’ as the succinct saying goes, and if you lose the scrum penalty count 6-0, as Wales did against the Springboks, you are not going to win the game. ‘Bomb’ has sensibly been brought in as a scrum advisor for the Six Nations, but he could still probably do as good a job of anchoring the scrum at the age of 43 as any of those in the current squad!
Tweaking the attack-defence balance
In November, Wales essayed more average tackles per game [218] than any of the other 23 first-tier or second-tier nations. That they completed 88% of the attempts is a credit to smart, resolute defence coach Mike Forshaw. That they had to make so many is an indictment of a feeble attack which generated only 2.3 clean breaks per game, last of any of the 23 bar Chile.
Attack coach Alex King has been shown the door but the choice at the pivotal 10 spot – the blue riband position in Welsh rugby – is as full of raw, ‘uncooked’ candidates as tighthead prop. For Griffin, read Dan Edwards and Ben Thomas. The natural choice at 13, Gloucester’s Max Llewellyn, has been mysteriously omitted from the squad entirely, even though he plays in an attack pattern superior to any of the Welsh regions. A sense the poverty of regional rugby in Wales has been unable to distinguish its assets from its liabilities is too obvious to ignore.
The #GallagherPrem‘s top try scorer, Max Llewellyn. 😉 pic.twitter.com/RviURLXITQ
— Gloucester Rugby 🍒 (@gloucesterrugby) January 13, 2025
Gatland goes back to the past for ‘living trophies’
The Wales supremo has had to return to the past to find players who know what ‘winning habits’ look like – 34-year-old Taulupe Faletau up front, Josh Adams and ex-Lions full-back/wing Liam Williams in the backline. As Gatland commented:
“Since the World Cup we have lost a lot of experience and when you bring in youngsters, it takes a bit of time. But the pleasing thing for this campaign is we welcome back some experience in Faletau, Adams, Williams and Dafydd Jenkins. That adds a little bit of strength in depth back into the squad but seeing some of the youngsters develop is going to be a real positive as well.”
Key questions
With only two home games, the colour of Wales’ campaign will probably be shown in the opening two matches, away from home first in Paris against France and then versus Italy in Rome. If they can win one of those games, Wales can return to respectability by winning two of their five matches in the championship. If not, Gatland’s losing run is likely to bloat from 12 to 17 games, and the dark shroud of rugby depression in the Valleys will only deepen.
Can Italy push into ‘Tier One’ in the Six Nations?
Under the shrewd stewardship of ex-Argentine 10 Gonzalo Quesada, Italy emerged with a 50% record in the tournament for the first time in their history in 2024, with two wins, one draw and two losses. In the autumn, despite a 32-point trouncing at the hands of the Pumas, the Azzurri recovered to edge Georgia and regain respect lost against the All Blacks at the World Cup – where Italy shipped 96 points – by running the men in black close in Turin, in a 29-11 defeat.
Will Quesada find the point of balance again?
The key for Italy’s head honcho will be to find the right equilibrium between attack and defence as in 2024, where Italy conceded 126 points in five games – around the same level as England [123], France [122] and Scotland [115].
The balance had been lost in the l
![Monte Ioane](https://eu-cdn.rugbypass.com/webp-images/wp/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/GettyImages-2088903998-1024x640.jpg.webp?maxw=766&comp=95)
atter stages of Kieran Crowley’s tenure by a commitment to all-out attack, which played into the hands of New Zealand’s countering game off turnover in that fateful World Cup pool game, and to a slightly lesser extent in the first November match against Argentina.
What the stats say
The Azzurri had the lowest percentage of active time of possession [42% – 16.5 minutes out of 39 minutes of average ball-in-play time] at the 2024 tournament while averaging 18 points per game, exactly the same as in their three November encounters. Quesada’s men will not win many shoot-outs on the scoreboard, so there is a premium on counter-attack efficiency out of aggressive defence. The Azzurri scored a massive 44% of their tries from counter-attacks sparked by the likes of Capuozzo, Tommaso Menoncello and Monty Ioane, even though they averaged 247 tackles per game, 60 more than any other nation.
Who are the key players?
Key forwards are tackling machines Lorenzo Cannone [26 tackles per game], skipper Michele Lamaro [21] and mobile all-rounder Federico Ruzza in the second row, with his 33 lineout takes and two steals in five games last term, tacked on to 73 tackles.
Quesada will also be hoping young loosehead prop Mirco Spagnolo can confirm a prodigious work rate and scrummaging promise after his suspension expires midway through the competition. Italy won the most penalties from scrum [12] of any nation at the 2024 tournament.
Italy need Capuozzo to return to his most electric try-assisting form to boost Ioane in the Italian back three.
In retrospect my most outstanding takeaway from the three opening 6N games at the weekend was that Marcus Smith is developing into a very good fly half. I have always liked his play and he just needs to have a coach that coaches to his style of attack. He is good on defence and his kicking both out of hand, and off the T, has improved over the past few years. I would love to see him in the Green and Gold outside a scrum half like Williams or Reinach. If he had one of the SA wings to back up his break or a scrummie quick enough to keep up with him, he would have engineered at least another try against Ireland.
Looking very bleak for Wales going into this year's 6 N. It will be an upset really if they win a single game. Only hope is maybe the Scots are weakened enough by injury and have a bad day....or Italy.
So the Irish team is declared, with Prendergast at 10. He will come under a lot of pressure, and I hope I am wrong about his ability at this stage of his career to handle it. At least Crowley is on the bench. I happy it is a 5/3 split.
McCarthy injured and out is a blow though. Henderson off the bench won't add as much as either Ryan or Beirne. No switch of Porter over to THP. Ringrose and Aki starting is possibly an indication of looking at a more aggressive defence profile when England have the ball. Henshaw and Ringrose finished against hopefully a tiring England. Interesting call playing Baird at 6....lineout prowess in place of O'Mahony ? Baird also brings great pace on any break.
What about Dai Young as a possible Wales head coach? I could see him in that role. Bit of a poisoned chalice at the moment though.
More of a D o R type rather than tracksuit coach. Atm we need better tracksuit coaches!
Yes you have to wonder if it's the players that are still just a bit too trigger happy rushing up like that. They've probably just been given a free license under the new regime without a lot of defining structure, looking left and right first will have to be a priority in their traning approach this time.
Very interesting to see what Gatland does. Likely it is going to be predictable however as that is his MO. Did the WRU really just decide to hang on one more year before deciding to jump off the cliff?
Italy's toughest game this year will be Wales. It's all good toppling over the bigger teams but it's another matter putting away the easy beats. It will be something new for Italy to encounter I suspect.
I think Gatland will stay until they find someone with the nous to replace. That will prob be Mark Jones who has had the Crusaders experience and has just started with the Ospreys. Poss Danny Wilson from Quins.
Given their resources, England should be like France, always in the conversation about being either the best or 2nd best side in the world.
I just have to look at their recent history in the U20s, and I'm a real headscratcher.
As far as Wales go, it's just very sad to see how far they have fallen. Maybe they need to do what Scotland has and is doing - turn themselves into a BaBa side by looking worldwide for Welsh-based talent via parent/grandparent and then targeting foreign players who, after 5 years, can make the jump to the international team.
Ireland did this very well when the 3 year residency period was in place but maybe Wales needs to look at doing something similar via "project players"?
Like France? Hopeless? Haha I think you'll find they've been very par with France.
Yes Wales lag well behind Scot and Ire in rcuitment og qualified players, and now the loophole is substnatially closed by the shift from 3 to 5 years residency. Henry Thomas is one player they have picked up after he was capped by England, but they also lost out on Feyi-Waboso who was dual-qualified. Lots of work to do.
My Prediction for the 2025 Table:
Pos - Team - Played - Won - Lost - BP - Points
1. France - 5 - 5 - 0 - 3 - 23
2. Ireland - 5 - 4 - 1 - 3 - 19
3. England - 5 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 15
4. Scotland - 5 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 10
5. Wales - 5 - 1 - 4 - 1 - 5
6. Italy - 5 - 0 - 5 - 2 - 4
Are you predicting Italy to get close to one of the top four teams or a try thriller with Wales?
Could you be more specific Bull?🤣
England have lost almost all of their games against the best, and against teams ranked lower than them. At home. They have literally proven that they can't mix it with best if winning is the aim of the game.
I can acknowledge that they should be better this year, and that they should be winning more. But I said the same thing about them last year (actually thought they would win the 6N buoyed by their WC result) but they did the opposite. And some.
Fundamentally, there is nothing to suggest England will do much better than another 3rd place. Until they actually start winning.
Which they are NOT going to do against Ireland (who has literally been called the best team of the past 9/10 years consistently - and courted or held the no. 1 ranking throughout this period) at HOME. Even if England lose by just another point agonisingly close in the dying stages of the game. It will be another loss.
Ireland are a quality, settled, experienced side. England are not, yet. France is even more so - a juggernaut - who everyone seems to have forgotten about. And I’m not sure why. It’s bizarre.
Not true. The last game v. Japan aside, England's last five opponents have been Ireland, France, NZ Aussie and SA. The average margin in those games has been -3.5 points per game, which does not suggest a huge gap between England and top sides like Ire, the ABs and Boks.
Be careful not to impose your desire on your objectivity, it could come back to haunt you!
France
five love
I don't know why but I feel like Scotland has a chance to win.
Yes... they did. Versus Italy last weekend. 🤣
All joking aside, the winners of the Championship will be the winners of R4 Ireland v France. And there will be a Slam one way or another as neither of them will slip up in their other 3 games.
It's in the water SA😁
In his heart of hearts, Borthwick wants games against the likes of Ireland, Scotland and France to resemble arm wrestles. It’s what he’s comfortable with but the players he’s got want something more than that ditto the English public.
Who the heck do Wales turn to if they and Warren Gatland part ways after the tournament?
Mike Ruddock
That's exactly it Mitch. Borthers makes platitudes about playing an exciting brand of rugby but you can feel the mixed messages oozing from him in the way England play. They don't know if they're coming or going. He has no idea how to coach a team to play an exciting brand of attacking rugby. I kinda feel for the guy, he's a fish out of water.
Perfectly summarized Mitch!
The next big Wales coach will be Mark Jones but he's a way off atm.
Gorgeous sidestep by Capuzzo
Note - current and previous Italy coaches are/were and Argy and a Saffer!