It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds in a crowded, expensive sports market. Lewis’ book was called Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. Although it was about baseball, the trade secrets announced within it have steadily seeped out through cross-application to the sporting world outside.
The central characters in Lewis’ drama – Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane and ‘Sabermetrics’ outsider Bill James – first began to question received baseball wisdom, then found the right data to back up their own very different perception of the game. They showed how a more accurate and far-reaching use of data analytics could change the value of players – and by implication coaches – profoundly.
With the aid of James’ tools for evaluation, Beane’s small-market outfit consistently turned the odds on the casino. Back in 2001, the As were able to compete off a miniscule budget of $33.8m with the mighty New York Yankees, who enjoyed the pick of the market at $112.8m. The production costs of the eponymous 2011 movie starring Brad Pitt were roughly the same as Oakland’s entire playing budget one year earlier.
Instead of competing on an unfair playing field for established stars, Beane looked for cheap, undervalued free agents [there were plenty], and focused on developing talent within the As’ own farm system of minor league feeder clubs. The Moneyball approach took Oakland all the way to the knockout stages of the ‘big show’, even though they could never quite topple the Yankees in the final act.
Six months before Lewis’ book was ever published, John Henry had hired Bill James as a consultant and installed a Yale graduate and Moneyball disciple, Theo Epstein as his GM in Boston. The Red Sox promptly reversed the 86-year ‘curse of the Bambino’ in 2004 and went on to win the MLB championship again three years later. The orthodoxy’s last line of defence, that playing Moneyball would win you games but not titles, was busted in the process.
Zack Scott spent 18 seasons with the Red Sox as a consultant, and summarised the advance of data analytics and quantitative metrics as a growth “from [the use of] 10,000 data points to 10 billion data points during this time”. The Tampa Bay Rays now have 39 dedicated analysts, as teams build predictive models to churn the latest biomechanical data, assisted by intimate camera footage.
Translate that to the world of international rugby and Australia are the small-market equivalent of the Oakland As. With rugby playing third fiddle to Aussie rules and the NRL, the game seldom has its pick of star athletes even though it often looks to invest in them convulsively. Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’.
A couple of months ago, I suggested Rugby Australia’s trawl for a new head coach to succeed Joe Schmidt would eventually narrow down to three men – home-grown coaches Stephen Larkham and Les Kiss and an Englishman who enjoys broadening his horizons, Stuart Lancaster. That is indeed the way it could be panning out. If RA look to yoke together the best of both worlds, and appoint Kiss as director of rugby and Lancaster as senior coach, they could be set fair for the future. Remember, you heard it here first.
With Kiss projected as Australia’s long-term successor, his presence as director of rugby would enable Lancaster to concentrate on the things he does best: innovating at the cutting edge of the game and empowering young players to implement those new principles on the field. To play the role Sir Wayne Smith did for New Zealand for so long, always keeping the All Blacks a nose ahead of their opponents in their preparation for games off the field.
Australia would be getting a coaching jewel in Lancaster. Andy Farrell’s Ireland embarked on their 17-match winning run to number one in the world rankings up to the 2023 World Cup only after they had adopted Lancaster’s methods, and the rump of the players based at Leinster. They bought in hook, line and sinker and they reaped the rewards.
The Cumbrian’s influence has spread far and wide. If you wonder about the meteoric rise of young Louis Bielle-Biarrey in Union Bordeaux-Bègles, look no further than his Irish attack and skills mentor Noel McNamara. A farmer’s son from County Clare, with a degree in law and European studies, McNamara is now one of the foremost teachers in a sport he never played. An ‘accidental coach’ who became the philosophical mainstay of the Ireland U20s and the Leinster academy? It is a pure Moneyball story.
At Leinster he learned all about the attack patterns Lancaster was pioneering in the senior side and embedded the principles in the academy products sprouting from the Dublin schools system. It was none other than Kiss [at the time with London Irish in the English Premiership] who gave McNamara a key morsel of advice in his coaching career: “An element of risk can make you better.” At the same time, Lancaster reminded him of the life of a coach-as-juggler: three glass bowls in the air – work, family life, and your health. “Make sure none drop,” said the Cumbrian.
Like Kiss and Lancaster, McNamara is already well travelled, having experienced coaching life in both hemispheres, with the Sharks in South Africa, at home in Ireland and now away in the Top 14 with UBB. Such coaches learn how to win games against all comers, and this is the quality the Wallabies need now, more than anything else. With Kiss and Lancaster, and Joe Schmidt still in the very prominent background, they would quickly begin to win many more games than they lose.
For those who seek to disparage a 70%-plus win record by saying it is easy to win at Leinster, it is worth recalling the ex-England supremo joined Leo Cullen at a time when the province was in turmoil. Australian head coach Matt O’Connor had been let go after criticisms of the club’s playing style and a lack of opportunity for young players. After O’Connor’s departure, Leinster went on to win only one of six games at the group stage of the 2015-2016 Champions Cup and finished bottom of their pool.
The appointment of Lancaster fixed both problems. When he can coach young or undervalued talent – for which read Kiwis Jamison Gibson-Park and James Lowe at Leinster – without any external [or political] distractions, he is a rip-roaring, runaway success. The problems have only arisen when the bulk of talent is bought in and overvalued rather than produced in-house, as it was in Paris.
Rugby Australia finally seems to be getting it right, looking to develop from within, picking the right coaches to help at the right time, balancing growth at home with overseas experience. It is looking to squeeze the most out of its available resources rather than squandering them.
If there is any area of the game which may be most amenable to a Moneyball-style expansion of data analytics, it is the lineout. The professional lineout is already a game within a game, a complex library of move and countermove. This is one department where deep study can be immediately repaid, and coincidentally it is one where the Wallabies could do with more depth in their leadership. At present forwards coach Geoff Parling has Nick Frost as his primary lineout caller, but the options outside Frost are not so obvious.
Some of the potential issues were underlined in last weekend’s match between the Reds and the Force. The Force stole ten of the Queensland throws and it kept them in a game they otherwise might have lost more comfortably. In the process, the WA second row of Darcy Swain and Jeremy Williams comprehensively out-argued the Queensland pair of Ryan Smith and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto in a game where all four would have been attempting to showcase their Wallaby wares for the forthcoming visit by the British and Irish Lions.
The problems began, but by no means ended with the Reds’ inability to secure ball from the shorter four and five-man lines.
The Queensland caller is number four Ryan Smith, and his preferred option is to call to himself. It is quite clear even from these two early examples this is exactly the scenario for which Swain and co were prepared. Swain rushes to mark the space as soon as Smith enters at the tail in the first clip, and the Force counter-jumpers mirror his movement all the way down the line in both instances.
The most disappointing aspect for Queensland supporters was how little had changed by the second period. There were no magical half-time fixes.
Either Smith [or his replacement Conor Vest] were still starting at the tail and dropping down towards the middle off a dummy or two, and either Swain or Harris were still picking them off, right until the end of the game.
When one aspect of leadership fails, it can send negative ripple effects into other spheres. Ryan Smith conceded four penalties in a variety of situations all over the paddock – the most of any player on either side. Salakaia-Loto was shut out of an area in which he excels, winning no lineout ball in the hour he spent on the field, and only carrying for two metres off seven runs.
Swain knows where the throw is going right from the start of the first lineout, while in the second the ball sails clean over LSL’s head, and try is a matter of sheer good fortune, and the bounce of an egg-shaped ball.
Rugby Australia can do itself a huge favour over the coming days by appointing Kiss and Lancaster to key roles within the Wallaby coaching group. Both have the invaluable experience of working overseas, and they have done their due coaching diligence in different parts of the world.
With Kiss as director of rugby, an Australian will be in place and the coaching succession plan assured; with Lancaster as senior coach, the predictive intelligence and innovation will be present to drive the game in Aussie forward. It could just be the meeting of minds Australia needs to make the most of its small-market resources and maximise its assets. The lessons of ‘Moneyball’ are still being disseminated around the world in multiple sports, and Australian rugby is gearing up to learn them.
“Why do you downplay his later career, post 50? He won a treble less than two years ago, with a club who played more games and won more games than any other team that managed the same feat. His crowning achievement - by his own admission.”
He’s won many trebles in his career - why do you only care about one of them?
I think its unsurprising that he’d feel more emotional about his recent achievements, but its less clear why you do.
“Is it FA cups or League cups you’re forgetting in his English trophy haul? You haven’t made that clear…”
It actually was clear, if you knew the number he had won of each, but I was ignoring the league cup, because Germany and Spain only have one cup competition so it isn’t possible to compare league cup performance with City to his performance with Bayern and Barcelona.
“With Barcelona he won 14 trophies. With Bayern Munich he won 5 trophies. With City he has currently won 18 trophies…”
I can count, but clearly you can’t divide! He was at Barca for 4 years, so that’s 3.5 trophies per year. He was at Bayern for 3 years, and actually won 7 trophies so that’s 2.3 trophies per year. He has been at City for 8 completed seasons so that’s 2.25 trophies per year. If in his 9th season (this one) he wins both the FA cup and the FIFA club world cup that will take his total to 20 for an average of 2.22 trophies per year.
To be clear - you said that Pep had gotten better with age by every metric. In fact by most metrics he has gotten worse!
Why do you downplay his later career, post 50? He won a treble less than two years ago, with a club who played more games and won more games than any other team that managed the same feat. His crowning achievement - by his own admission.
Is it FA cups or League cups you’re forgetting in his English trophy haul? You haven’t made that clear…
It’s lovely you still think of him as a brilliant manager. I’ll be sure to let him know when I next see him.
With Barcelona he won 14 trophies. With Bayern Munich he won 5 trophies. With City he has currently won 18 trophies…
If your too thick to count then your likely too thick to insult, so I’ll keep it friendly - Enjoy the Lions series.
We’re done here, fella.
“He made history beyond the age of 50. History.”
He made history before the age of 50, why are you so keen to downplay Pep’s early career achievements? In 2009 he won the sextuple. No other manager in history had achieved that, and Pep hasn’t achieved it since, but here you are jizzing your pants over a couple of CL finals.
“If continuing to break records and achieve trophies isn't a metric for success”
Achieving trophies is a metric for success, and Pep wins fewer trophies as he gets older.
“He's still competing for a major trophy this year. Should he get it, it would be 8 consecutive seasons with a major trophy. Then the world club cup in the summer.”
You’re cherry picking some quite odd stats now. In Pep’s first 8 seasons as a manager he won 6 league titles, 2 CL titles, & 4 cup titles. In Pep’s last 8 seasons as a manager (including this one) he’s won 6 league titles, 1 CL title, & 2 (or possibly 3) cup titles. In his first 8 seasons he won the FIFA world club cup 3 times; in his last 8 seasons he’s won it 1 (or possibly soon to be 2) time(s). In his first 8 seasons he won the UEFA super cup 3 times; in his last 8 he won the UEFA super cup once. His record over the past 8 seasons has been amazing - but it is a step down from his record in his first 8 seasons, and winning the FA cup and FIFA club world cup this summer won’t change that.
Pep is still a brilliant manager. He will probably remain a brilliant manager for many years to come, but you seem to want to forget how incredible he was when he first broke through. To be clear - you said that Pep had gotten better with age by every metric. That was false!
You certainly based them on your own evidence. Just as a true story is truly a story.
Re: Pep, he made history beyond the age of 50. History. If continuing to break records and achieve trophies isn't a metric for success…
He's still competing for a major trophy this year. Should he get it, it would be 8 consecutive seasons with a major trophy. Then the world club cup in the summer.
Best to wait until the postseason to see were things stand.
Talk again in July? I think there's rugby on around then also.
Not sure which of my comments RE Pep was unbalanced or unthoughtful. You are welcome to disagree with me, but unlike you, I did actually base all of my arguments on evidence.
The vast majority of managers continue performing at a high standard after the age of 50, but you said Pep had gotten better with age by every metric - surely you must see that that was incorrect?
Yes, I’ve changed my mind totally. I agree with everything that you have said. How can I refute such balanced, thoughtful insights.
Every manager in every sport over the age of 50 should be taken round the back of the sheds and put out of their misery like a lame dog.
I have much to thank you for, sir!
“A succession of recent ex-players going straight back into the game as coaches in their early 40’s would prob be enough to kill it stone-dead. Innovation would die a death.”
Would it? I do think one of the major differences between rugby and most other sports - which we’ve been overlooking - is the degree to which players are expected to lead team meetings & analysis sessions and the like. Someone like Owen Farrell has basically been an assistant coach already for ten years - and he’s been so under a variety of different head coaches with different expectations and playing styles.
“The most interesting ppl I have met in the game have all coached well into their sixties and they value the time and opportunity they have had to reflect and therefore innovate in the game. That’s based on their ability to compare and contrast between multiple eras.”
I don’t doubt that that’s true. But having interesting insights doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be the best able to inspire a team, or the best at managing the backroom staff.
“Wayne Smith winning the WWC in his mid sixties three years ago prob means nothing to you but it meant a lot to him. It took him back to the roots of is own coaching journey.”
I don’t doubt that! But I don’t think coaches should be hired on the basis that it means a lot to them.
“The likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Wayne Bennett and Andy Reid all have a tale to tell. You should open your ears and listen to it!”
I agree! Never have I ever suggested otherwise!
A succession of recent ex-players going straight back into the game as coaches in their early 40’s would prob be enough to kill it stone-dead. Innovation would die a death.
The most interesting ppl I have met in the game have all coached well into their sixties and they value the time and opportunity they have had to reflect and therefore innovate in the game. That’s based on their ability to compare and contrast between multiple eras.
Wayne Smith winning the WWC in his mid sixties three years ago prob means nothing to you but it meant a lot to him. It took him back to the roots of is own coaching journey.
The likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Wayne Bennett and Andy Reid all have a tale to tell. You should open your ears and listen to it!
My faith in what?
Will it magically make me think that Pep, Gatland, and Jones have gotten better with age? What I’ve seen of it so far certainly hasn’t had that effect.
To be clear, are you admitting you’re wrong about Pep?
So you haven't yet gotten around to watching any super rugby…
Please watch it. It's a new golden era! Your faith will be restored!
“Explain clearly how that’s not an achievement?”
It is an achievement. It is less of an achievement than he managed with Barcelona. You said that ”He has gotten better with age. By every measure.” He hasn’t. Doesn’t mean he isn’t still extremely good though!
”I thought you don’t care what certain managers did 10 years ago…”
are you really this incapable of understanding the context of what I’m saying? My point is that Gatland was a good coach ten years ago, and isn’t a good coach now. So what he did ten years ago is relevant to whether he was good ten years ago - that is pretty basic stuff.
On the other hand, what Les Kiss did ten years ago isn’t relevant to how good he is now, just as what Gatland did ten years ago isn’t relevant to how good he is now.
”So you haven’t watched even a minute of Super Rugby this year?”
I was replying to your comment, given you have the memory of a goldfish and are unable to scroll up, I’m remind you what you said:
“Ireland won a long over due slam in 2009. The last embers of a golden generation was kicked on by a handful of young new players and a new senior coach. Kiss was brought in as defence coach and was the reason they won it. They’d the best defence in the game at the time. He all but invented the choke tackle. Fittingly they backed it up in the next world cup in their 2011 pool match against… Australia. The instantly iconic image of Will Genia getting rag-dolled by Stephen Ferris.”
“Why are you so insistent on being wrong? Man United won in 2008 (beating Chelsea in the final). In 2009 Barcelona won, beating United.”
Good lad, just checking. So you’re not a bot! Chelsea bombed the 2008 final more than United won it. John Terry… couldn’t happen to a nicer fella.
“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”
Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made.”
So the difference between 2021 and 2023 would of course be TWO YEARS. 24 months would account for 3 different seasons. They contested ECL finals twice in two years. The first in 2021 - which they lost - was still the first elite European final in the clubs then 141 year history. Explain clearly how that’s not an achievement? Guess what age he was then…
“I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright.”
I thought you don’t care what certain managers did 10 years ago…
Why would I address Eddie Jones? Why would he be deserving of a single sentence?
“I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.”
So you haven’t watched even a minute of Super Rugby this year?
“lol u really need to chill out”
Simply frightful! If you’re not a bot you’re at least Gen-Z?
“Pep didn’t win the ECL in 2009. It was 2008 with Barca”
Why are you so insistent on being wrong? Man United won in 2008 (beating Chelsea in the final). In 2009 Barcelona won, beating United.
“The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.”
Again - you’re not correct. City won the CL in 2023, and made the final in 2021. Those are the only two CL finals they have made. With Barcelona, Pep made the semi final four consecutive times - with City he’s managed only 3 in 8 years. This year they didn’t even make the round of 16.
To re-cap, you wrote that Pep “has gotten better with age. By every measure.” There are some measures that support what you’re saying, but the vast majority of the measures that you have highlighted actually show the opposite.
I am aware Les Kiss has achieved great things in his career, but I don’t care what he did over ten years ago. Rugby was a different sport back then.
I think your take on Gatland is pretty silly. Gatland was without Edwards in the 2013 and 2017 Lions tours and managed to do alright. You’ve also not addressed Eddie Jones.
I agree wrt Schmidt. He would ideally be retained, but it wouldn’t work to have a remote head coach. He should definitely be hired as a consultant/analyst/selector though.
“Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.”
lol u really need to chill out lad. Kiss and Schmidt would both be great members of the coaching set up in 2025, but it would be ridiculous to bank on either to retain the head coach role until 2031.
Pep didn’t win the ECL in 2009. It was 2008 with Barca. The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.
His time with City - a lower win ratio compared to Bayern Munich as you say - includes a 100 PT season. A feat that will likely never be surpassed. I appreciate you don’t follow soccer too closely but even casual fans refer to the sport in ‘pre and post Pep’ terms and all because of what he has achieved and is continuing to achieve, late career. There is a reason that even U10’s play out from the back now at every level of the game. That’s also a fairly recent development.
How refreshing to return to rugby on a rugby forum.
Ireland won a long over due slam in 2009. The last embers of a golden generation was kicked on by a handful of young new players and a new senior coach. Kiss was brought in as defence coach and was the reason they won it. They’d the best defence in the game at the time. He all but invented the choke tackle. Fittingly they backed it up in the next world cup in their 2011 pool match against… Australia. The instantly iconic image of Will Genia getting rag-dolled by Stephen Ferris.
His career since has even included director of rugby positions. He would have an extremely good idea of where the game is at and where it is going in addition to governance experience and dealings. Not least in Oz were many of the players will have come via or across Rugby League pathways.
Gatland isn’t a valid coach to compare too. He only ever over-achieved and was barely schools level without Shaun Edwards at club or test level. His return to Wales simply exposed his limitations and a chaotic union. It wasn’t age.
Schmidt is open to staying involved in a remote capacity which I think deserves more attention. It would be a brain drain to lose him. He stepped in to coach the ABs in the first 2022 test against Ireland when Foster was laid out with Covid. They mullered Ireland 42-19. He was still heavily involved in the RWC 2023 quarter final. Same story.
Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.
“He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career.”
He won 2 ECLs at the beginning of his career (2009, 2011). Since then he’s won 1 in 15 years.
“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”
He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).
If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.
“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”
Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.
“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”
Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.
“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”
Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.
But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.
Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.
Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.
So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.
Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.
He has gotten better with age. By every measure. He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career. He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career - in a different league. He then - most recently and while even older - won another treble in yet another league. He ended up winning four on the bounce and creating history. He also won another ECL title less than 24 months ago. Already outstripping Fergusons success of winning two ECLs. Ferguson himself was pushing 70 when he won his last ECL.
You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp. Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.
You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment? With his near 25 years coaching at club, provincial, junior and senior test level? His highly decorated background in Rugby League and the obvious fit that would have for the Aussie national job. You speak plenty but actually say so very little.
well I guess we’ll see! I am actually a huge fan of Eddie Jones, but things went badly at the end with England, they went badly with Australia, and they’re not going great so far with Japan.
You’re right that he has kept abreast of trends in the game - arguably he has actually continued to predict trends ahead of them happening - but there’s more to coaching than just that. I wonder if he’d be best off in an analysis or consultancy role?
But yeah, you are right that the hiring boards will learn the lessons - I just think the lesson they’ll learn from the last few years of test rugby is that it is better to appoint younger managers! Obviously if Jones has a resurgence with Japan, and Mick Byrne continues to do a great job with Fiji, then people will learn from that - but at the moment that remains a hypothetical.
yep! No doubt he did a brilliant job!
Eddie Jones is quite capable of succeeding with another tier one nation now, despite the disaster burning on a short time fuse with the WBs. Unlike Gatland he has kept abreast of trends in the game.
Obv the ppl who appoint team managers/head coaches are teh ones who will learn the lessons, if they don’t know them already.
https://www.london.edu/think/how-claudio-ranieri-transformed-leicester-city
He jts knew how to use that deep well of knowledge accumulate over many years of management. A true Moneyball story!
“Two comparable achievements 15 years apart (at different clubs in different leagues) represent failure and not continued success for an elite level coach/manager? Not even a hint of consistency? Just gradual, inevitable decline? And all because he is in his sixth decade?”
Why don’t you try reading what I wrote before you start inventing a load of other random things that I didn’t say. I said “Pep hasn’t gotten better with age”. He hasn’t. I don’t think he’s got much worse, and yeah, he’s been fairly consistent over his career and has had more success than almost any other coach. But he hasn’t gotten better.
“You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!).”
I was actually aware of that. I didn’t mention it because it wasn’t relevant to the fact that Mourinho - aged 52 - had more experience than Arteta does at 43. It also isn’t ironic that Bobby Robson was a much older manager at the time - it actually confirms by point that a lot of the top football managers used to be older than they are today.
“You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby”
That did relate to rugby. Let me walk you through the thread…
NB suggested that Les Kiss should become Australia head coach in 2027.
I said: “Given the drop off so many top coaches seem to experience as they get older (e.g. Jones, Gatland) Kiss could be a riskier appointment than you’d think!”
NB said: “Drawing a parallel with the NFL and NBA, plenty of coaches stay well into their 70’s”
I said: “Not all sports are going the same way though” then gave the example of football.
The example of football was introduced in order to make the point that the age profile of managers is not the same in every sport. If you had read the thread you were replying to you would know this!
So you’ve defined failure rather than success. Two comparable achievements 15 years apart (at different clubs in different leagues) represent failure and not continued success for an elite level coach/manager? Not even a hint of consistency? Just gradual, inevitable decline? And all because he is in his sixth decade?
You’ve missed that Mourinho’s early start in football was as a translator for Bobby Robson (ironically a much older manager at the time!). He started in 2000 aged 37 as an assistant. Arteta started at 37 as a paid up manager. Rather than being a translator, he was Peps understudy. His tutelage belied his young age and gave him a few years under his belt before moving in to management.
You suggested that Les Kiss would not be suited to an international coaching role because of his age profile…that seemed to relate to rugby no matter how unsubstantiated a point it is.
“rugby will learn to value the IP stored in such ppl”
What do you mean by this? Who specifically will learn?
I don’t think the recent failures of Gatland & Jones were due to them being undervalued by their employers or the wider rugby public. Is that what you are suggesting?
“He famously won 5 trophies in a calendar year. That was 2024”
Pep famously won 6 trophies in a calendar year. That was 2009.
“So you’re confident that Arteta at 43 has less experience than Mourinho did at 43?”
Mourinho wasn’t 43 ten years ago, he was 52. Mourinho at 52 had more experience than Arteta does at 43.
“How does any of it relate to RUGBY????????????????????”
Take a deep breath. This isn’t worth getting this upset about.
My whole point is that it doesn’t relate to rugby. I am making the argument that there are not consistent trends wrt the age and experience of coaches that hold true for all sports. NB seemed to be suggesting that there were, but his argument has since proved to be more nuanced than that, making this whole thread pretty redundant.
“I’m suggesting any 20 year man could of had similar success with the resources Ferguson had.”
Well then you’re just daft. He was clearly a brilliant coach who achieved what very few others could have. Of course the money helped, and there probably were a handful of others who might have been able to achieve similar success if they’d got the united job instead, but he was a man of immense talents.
Very true, indeed. And sadly the reason why 500-1 odds no longer exist in sports betting.
that was about ten years ago - when older managers were having a resurgence!
We’re only now reaching the first stage in rugby - as some of the top coaches in the game like Graham Henry, Eddie Jones, Warren Gatland, Steve Hansen etc are all in their mid sixties, or more. It is the first time in the pro era this has happened, hence unexplored territory.
My guess is that rugby will learn to value the IP stored in such ppl, just as it will learn to value the contributions of ppl outside the game looking in - pretty much the message of Bill James and Moneyball!
Don’t forget Claudio Ranieri, winning the Prem with Leicester at 64 when everyone had written him off completely!
Oh dear… I can’t actually believe you’ve put that in writing.
You’ll have to define success for me then if Pep hasn’t gotten better with age. He famously won 5 trophies in a calendar year. That was 2024. The team he coached made history that year and the year previous with a treble.
“They are also less experienced than the top coaches were 10 years ago - something you seem not to have noticed.” So you’re confident that Arteta at 43 has less experience than Mourinho did at 43??? Anyway, what top coaches? How? Of what? league position? In a league that is currently ongoing and not yet decided for this year? How does any of it relate to RUGBY????????????????????
Yes, I’m fully aware you’re English. I don’t lack self-awareness.
I’m suggesting any coach given a quarter century at a club may of had similar success with the resources Ferguson had.
“It was true actually. Arteta hasn’t won much, nor slot. Pep has of course, and is a few years older. BUT - here’s the clincher: compare his trophy haul when he was THE SAME AGE AS your other examples! Boom.”
Boom indeed! My point proven. Pep hasn’t gotten better with age - he won loads when he was pretty new to coaching.
But the examples I gave were to show that the top coaches now are younger than the top coaches were 10 years ago. They are also less experienced than the top coaches were 10 years ago - something you seem not to have noticed.
I’m English btw.
Ok so you’re admitting you didn’t really have a point to make wrt Ferguson and spending regulations?
Apology accepted.
It was true actually. Arteta hasn’t won much, nor slot. Pep has of course, and is a few years older. BUT - here’s the clincher: compare his trophy haul when he was THE SAME AGE AS your other examples! Boom. A vast difference exists in the ‘concrete’ examples you gave.
“*Football” Yeah, tell me your English without telling me. I’m Irish and our national sport is a very different code of football, alas the name is already taken. It will always be soccer to me.
The fact you have literally typed that you don’t know much about soccer then attempted to lecture others on it is almost impressive. Post-irony.
“Two 40 year old coaches, two 50 year old coaches and two 60 year old coaches can all have vastly different levels of experience”
But that isn’t true of the coaches I was talking about? Hypothetically you are correct, but it has no bearing whatsoever on the concrete examples I was discussing.
I know what a paradox is. I also know that you haven’t offered any insight.
“the most successful manager in English soccer attained 90% of his trophy haul in an era that had unregulated spending”
*Football.
What does the lack of regulation of spending tell us about the relative merits of youth and experience? Hint: it tells us nothing.
Larry Brown was 63 when he won the NBA, and Phil Jackson was 64.
I guess my general feeling in rugby is that most coaches seem to decline quite a bit when they hit 60, and to be coaching at the top level when you’re 65 or older is extremely rare. Maybe in american sports people have another 5 years, but that doesn’t seem like a massive difference.
Either way, I’m going to stick with my verdict that appointing Les Kiss at age 60 would be ok as a short term deal - but appointing him at 63 and expecting him to last 4 years would be foolish.
I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?
This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.
It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.
While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.
Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.
Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.
You’re thinking of ‘Trouble with the Curve’, which was basically a reaction by orthodoxy to Moneyball principles.
But you should read the book. It would expand and deepen your understanding of sporting stats generally.
Finding value in players often depends on the stats available, and if the statistical categories are not really relevant, or misguided, then the value gets distorted or hidden. So in Baseball, OBP is more important than RBI, but that was not accepted until Bill James came along.
But as I say, best to read the book first, it’s an engaging read.
Ya, that reds lineout on the weekend was a mess. But as a lineout jumper of absolutely no repute back in the day, I used to hate hookers throwing the ball at my hips. And that was before I had jumped…
Years ago, I would have said for Lancaster to stay away from the political mess that was RA. It seems different at the moment, but time will tell. Interesting turn of events if he gets the job. I’m not in a hurry for kiss to leave the reds. He is doing good things with this squad.
Yep they need to find the balance and spaces between those two if they are both in the picture. We’ll see if RA has the nous and cojones to do it!