LONG READ Why Rassie Erasmus should cull some Boks veterans for 2027

Picture a scenario in which Siya Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit miss the Rugby World Cup 2027. Or another in which the power trio of Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi and Frans Malherbe watch the Boks’ first pool match in Australia from a large sofa somewhere in the Karoo. Outside the farmhouse, Trevor Nyakane, Vincent Koch and Deon Fourie stand around the braai, nursing their brandy and cokes.

Elsewhere, Damian de Allende, Faf de Klerk, Makazole Mapimpi and Cobus Reinach spend the morning with their young families, checking their phones for score updates like every other middle-aged South African who can’t get to a TV. Meanwhile, Franco Mostert and Willie le Roux are out on the golf course, oblivious to the progress of their former team.

Rassie Erasmus would have considered these scenarios when drawing up his plans for South Africa’s quest for a third successive World Cup win. It’s highly unlikely every member of the old guard will be phased out over the next two seasons – and yet, the overriding need for balance in a World Cup squad will force the Bok coach to make a series of difficult yet necessary cuts.

Erasmus knows a squad stacked with players aged 35 and older cannot expect to prevail in a tournament as physically demanding as the World Cup. On the other hand, a squad short on experience runs the risk of falling at the first hurdle, just as the Wallabies did in 2023.

The great South African transition is already well underway. Erasmus has used 48 players over the past eight Tests, including 11 debutants. His dedication to development has been particularly apparent in the big Rugby Championship Tests, where he has used 35 different players – and it should be noted a dozen World Cup winners missed the start of the tournament due to injuries or suspension.

Erasmus may explore further options in the coming months, but it’s getting to the point where he has to decide which players are worth the long-term investment.

Some of the gladiators who fought bravely in 2019 and 2023 may be encouraged to lay down their swords. While the Rugby Championship has provided some answers regarding the next generation, the task of trimming the old guard – 15 players will be 35 or older in 2027 – will be much tougher.

Let the youngsters play

The obvious place to start this analysis is with the ‘find’ of the season: Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.

The youngster has led the Junior Boks, won a United Rugby Championship title with the Stormers, and played for the South Africa A side on the 2022 tour to Europe. He was earmarked as a potential successor to Handré Pollard before the 2024 Test season started – and some experts, including former skipper Jean de Villiers, believe he will lead the Boks in future.

Erasmus has managed the 22-year-old carefully, deploying him from the bench at fly-half and full-back before giving him three consecutive starts at 10 in the Rugby Championship. Feinberg-Mngomezulu was the only player to feature in the Boks’ first eight Tests of the season, before succumbing to a knee injury.

Erasmus has expressed the need for experienced decision-makers at nine and 10 at a World Cup, and often highlights the fact no fly-half younger than 24 has steered their side to a title. Feinberg-Mngomezulu will be 25 by 2027, and if all goes to plan, he will have accumulated more than 30 caps.

The challenge for Erasmus is giving Feinberg-Mngomezulu these opportunities while developing alternatives such as Manie Libbok – who is just three years older than his Stormers counterpart – and Pollard, a match-winning game manager and goalkicker.

A number of rookies and younger players have put up their hands this season, and Erasmus will endeavour to boost their respective cap tallies to 30 or more by 2027.

Back-rowers Elrigh Louw and Ben-Jason Dixon have shown promise, as have tight forwards Ruan Nortje, Salmaan Moerat, and the versatile Jan-Hendrik Wessels.

Moerat has been given the captain’s armband three times this season. While a few veterans – including Siya Kolisi himself – may be considered for the responsibility in 2027, Erasmus is trying to empower younger leaders with an eye to the future.

The current Bok squad also boasts a large contingent of players in their mid to late 20s, who will be in their prime by the time the World Cup arrives. Full-back Aphelele Fassi, centre André Esterhuizen, props Thomas du Toit and Gerhard Steenekamp will need more game time to develop in the coming seasons.

South African fans calling for more new blood may have forgotten about the more established youngsters in the current set-up. Scrum-half Jaden Hendrikse, wing Canan Moodie and utility back Damian Willemse have enjoyed multiple successes with the Boks over the past few years, and will still be under 30 in Australia.

Given how much time they have spent in the Bok system, Ox Nché, RG Snyman, Jasper Wiese, Marco van Staden and Grant Williams have relatively few caps, and Erasmus may need to rectify that situation over the next few seasons.

These are good problems to have, although they may be compounded by the challenge of managing the senior core.

Managing the veterans

Overall, the Boks are in a position to field first-, second- and even third-string teams over a season without severely compromising their quest for consistent results.

This season, Erasmus picked youthful and less experienced teams to front Wales and Portugal, and relied on more of his grizzled veterans for the heavyweight clashes against Ireland and New Zealand.

How does he approach the big matches if most of his players are fit and available?

While he needs to expose the youngsters in tough away matches – possibly at Twickenham this November, and across the two-match series in New Zealand next year – he also needs to give the more established players opportunities to prove they still have what it takes to make a meaningful contribution in 2027.

A number of players in their early 30s have shown they are worthy of future investment. Pollard, Malcolm Marx, Lukhanyo Am, Cheslin Kolbe and Jesse Kriel will all be 33 in 2027, while super-subs Kwagga Smith and Jean Kleyn will be 34. These players should remain central to Erasmus’ plans, and play the big matches.

Pollard has been used at inside centre as well as fly-half this season, and may well be included as a utility player in 2027. If that is the case, he must receive more chances at 12.

Retaining some of the old guard

Kolisi is a crucial piece of the Bok puzzle.

Last year, it was feared a knee injury might preclude him from World Cup selection. Some speculated he might travel to France regardless, given his value as a leader.

The Bok skipper’s move to the coaching box for the next Test in Santiago suggests he is being earmarked for a management role down the line – Duane Vermeulen made a similar transition after 2023. That said, his titanic performances against the All Blacks in the recent Freedom Cup series indicate he still has the ability to make influential contributions as a player.

How Erasmus uses the captain over the next three seasons will be key, as he will be 36 by the time he arrives in Australia.

Fifteen of the players who won the World Cup in 2023 will be 35 or older (see table below). Clearly Erasmus can’t take all 15 to Australia, and his challenge is determining who has the potential to add value and who is not up to the task.

For the sake of comparison, only two elder statesmen – Fourie and Vermeulen – travelled to the last tournament in France, while 38-year-old Schalk Brits was the oldest member of the group at the 2019 World Cup in Japan.

Willie le Roux has been an outstanding servant to South African rugby over the past decade, and Erasmus has already confirmed the full-back will play his 100th Test at some point over the next two seasons. It’s hard to see Le Roux pushing beyond 2025, though, and he will be 38 at the time of the next World Cup.

Makazole Mapimpi, who epitomises the team’s fighting spirit, given his late and unlikely rise to the pinnacle of Test rugby, will be 37.

Faf de Klerk and Cobus Reinach will be 35 and 37 respectively. It’s highly unlikely both scrum-halves will feature in Erasmus’ long-term plans, with younger players more suited to Tony Brown’s attacking approach – Williams, Hendrikse and Morné van den Berg – getting more game time.

The Boks have an embarrassment of front-row riches at present, and an experienced scrum combination will be central to their 2027 World Cup. That said, Erasmus can’t select all of Kitshoff (35 in 2027), Frans Malherbe and Bongi Mbonambi (36), Vincent Koch (37) and Trevor Nyakane (38). They may have to persist with Johan Grobbelaar or Wessels at hooker, alongside the experienced Marx.

Outside of Du Toit and the Bulls’ Wilco Louw, South Africa don’t have any other tight-heads with Test experience – although the tour to the United Kingdom in November may provide the Stormers’ Neethling Fouché and the Sharks’ Hanro Jacobs with a chance to stake a claim.

Fourie will be 40 by the next World Cup, Lood de Jager and Franco Mostert 34 and 36 respectively. It’s hard to see the flanker-cum-hooker travelling to Australia, and one of those ageing locks may be surplus to requirements.

Kolisi, Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit are among the most celebrated players in South African rugby, and few fans – and possibly Erasmus himself – may want to contemplate a scenario in which they don’t spearhead a World Cup campaign.

Etzebeth is well placed to break Victor Matfield’s South African record of 127 Test appearances. In an interview this past week, Matfield suggested the giant lock could surpass the 150 mark. If Erasmus decides to invest in Kolisi (as a player) he may well persist with Etzebeth, as the duo has can amplify the group as a whole.

Du Toit may well complete this old guard triumvirate in 2027. As much as the youngsters have impressed over the past few months, there is no like for like replacement for Etzebeth, and certainly no equal to Du Toit – although according to Erasmus, Dixon has the potential to follow in his footsteps.

Du Toit plays his club rugby in Japan, where fewer games are staged in a season which runs from December to May. As a result, Du Toit and other Boks based in the Far East have more time to recover from injuries and prepare for the all-important Test schedule. As these players will tell you, the decision to move to Japan has prolonged their careers.

De Allende falls into this category, and few would bet against the inside centre playing at the next World Cup aged 35.

Can the Boks afford to take four players older than 35 to the World Cup, given they only included two ageing players in their 2023 squad? If they reduce the existing older contingent from 15 to four or five, should that be viewed as sufficient progress?

Spare a thought for Erasmus, who has the task of culling the senior contingent, and eventually selecting a squad from a group of 50-plus players.

And if he gets the balance right, spare a thought for the Boks’ World Cup opponents.