Last Saturday’s clash between England and New Zealand at Twickenham was a case study in poor game management. While there were plenty of bright moments over the course of 80 minutes, both teams conspired to lose the contest at the death.
England blew a couple of clear-cut chances and failed to register a single point in the fourth quarter – for the third consecutive match.
The All Blacks – who rank among the worst-performing teams in the fourth quarter – scored 10 points in this period, but struggled to control possession after George Ford’s late penalty attempt struck the upright.
It was hardly an advert for clinical rugby and in the end, Scott Robertson’s charges were marginally less poor than Steve Borthwick’s during the ‘championship minutes’.
The match served to show why both teams are chasing the Springboks and Ireland, rather than leading the World Rugby rankings charge.
This year, the Boks and Ireland have continued to win big Test matches – and in the case of South Africa, more regularly than before.
While there are multiple reasons for their success across the 2024 season, the ability to dominate and outscore most opponents in the all-important fourth quarter is at the top of the pile.
Run the rule over all matches staged between tier-one nations – thereby eliminating the one-sided blowouts between South Africa and Portugal, Scotland and Canada, New Zealand and Japan, and others – and a clear pattern emerges.
The table above highlights the key stats of the fourth quarter, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see that the Boks (seven wins from nine tier-one games) and Ireland (five from seven) have scored the most points in this period while conceding the fewest.
Some context is needed though, in order to show how the Boks in particular have targeted this quarter in recent seasons, and why they are more potent than ever in 2024.
LONG-TERM PLAN BEARS FRUIT
Consider how much has changed over the past 10 years, and how the script has effectively flipped.
Back in the 2010s, the Boks, Ireland and other contenders went toe to toe with New Zealand for 60 minutes, before the All Blacks piled on the points in the dying stages.
When Rassie Erasmus returned to South Africa to take up the head coach position in 2018, he implemented a series of structural changes at national and franchise level. Slowly but surely, his plan to transform the Boks into the world’s strongest and fittest team began to take shape.
The Boks have found a way to produce more consistent performances from quarter to quarter, and the Bomb Squad has become even more efficient in the final 20 minutes.
While consistency eluded the team over the course of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, the bench – otherwise known as the Bomb Squad – made a point at the 2023 World Cup when it propelled the team to three narrow wins against France, England and New Zealand.
This year, Erasmus has taken his squad management strategy as well as the team’s game plan to the next level. The decision to use 45 players over the course of the first 10 Tests has helped rather than hindered the Boks’ winning record, as has the shift to a more attacking approach.
Ultimately, the Boks have found a way to produce more consistent performances from quarter to quarter, and as the stats suggest, the Bomb Squad has become even more efficient in the final 20 minutes.
In 2024, Erasmus’ charges have averaged eight points for and five against in the first quarter, which is comparable to Scotland’s eight for and six against, and second only to New Zealand’s 10 for and four against.
South Africa (1.00) are also right up there in terms of tries scored in the first 20 minutes, second only to the All Blacks (1.22).
And a stronger start has impacted on their overall performance, and on their results.
Back in 2021 and 2022, the Boks developed a habit of starting poorly and relying on the Bomb Squad to bail them out of trouble. This compromised the team’s quest for consistency, and they finished both seasons with a 62% winning record.
This year, South Africa’s starting XV has been more accurate on both sides of the ball. Even when they’ve trailed at half-time, they’ve been within striking distance of their opponents.
As a result, they’ve often gone into the second stanza with the platform already set, and so the Bomb Squad has been tasked with building momentum rather than changing it.
The stats speak to this shift. The Boks (1.55) have averaged more tries than any other tier-one side in the fourth quarter this season.
Perhaps most significantly, they have – together with Ireland – conceded the fewest tries (three) during this period. Having played more games than Ireland, they boast the superior average (0.33), which speaks to their consistency.
The lift in attacking and defensive standards has boosted their overall results.
Earlier this year, South Africa won the Freedom Cup series against New Zealand as well as the full edition of the Rugby Championship tournament for the first time in 15 years.
Their 2024 win record stands at 80%, and there’s a good chance they’ll extend their winning run when they face Scotland on Sunday.
If both sides remain true to form – with Scotland easing their foot off the pedal in the latter stages and South Africa pressing it to the floor – it could get ugly for the hosts.
Scotland racked up some big numbers over the course of their three-match tour to the Americas in July and in their opening November Test against a second-string Fiji.
More should be read, however, into their Six Nations performances, and ultimately their tendency to fade after a strong start.
Gregor Townsend will be hoping that his charges buck the trend when South Africa descend on Murrayfield this weekend. If both sides remain true to form – with Scotland easing their foot off the pedal in the latter stages and South Africa pressing it to the floor – it could get ugly for the hosts.
The Boks have outscored tier-one opponents in the fourth quarter in seven out of nine matches this season. On each of those seven occasions, they’ve gone on to win the game.
QUESTIONS PERSIST OVER NEW ZEALAND AND ENGLAND
Robertson’s team has been widely criticised for their blunt second-half performances in 2024, and the stats show how the All Blacks have failed to make an impact in the final 20 minutes.
Over the course of the six-game Rugby Championship, they were not only outscored in the fourth period on four separate occasions, but completely blanked.
The All Blacks accumulated 17 fourth-quarter points over the course of their six-game campaign – fewer than another other team – while leaking 50 points during this period.
Only Australia (64) conceded more in the fourth quarter, while Rugby Championship winners South Africa topped the charts with 66 for and 10 against.
With those stats in mind, Robertson may take the recent performance at Twickenham as a sign of progress. At the same time, he will be aware that England’s fourth-quarter numbers are even worse than New Zealand’s.
The All Blacks will have to be sharper against Ireland on Friday and fight harder for longer if they hope to overcome the men in green in the final 20 minutes.
Ireland are one of the best attacking teams in the world, and this season, they have been second only to South Africa for points scored in the fourth quarter.
The quality of the defence may set the teams apart in Dublin, though.
In 2024, Ireland have conceded the fewest points in the first, second and fourth quarters – and conceded only three tries in the latter.
If Ireland manage to repel the All Blacks for 60 minutes, they will be favourites to close out the match and claim an important victory.
Unlike New Zealand, England haven’t started the big matches well this season, averaging four points while conceding seven during the first quarter.
Along with France, England have been the most dominant team in the third quarter, but have gone on to average a mere four points for and six against in the fourth.
France are no longer in the top-dog conversation, and that won’t change until they address their inconsistent performances and results.
That average is impacted by the fact they failed to register a single point in the latter stages of their last three matches – all against New Zealand. It’s worth noting that they’ve only managed to outscore a weak Wales as well as inconsistent Scotland and France teams in the fourth quarter this year.
England should improve on that record when they host a lacklustre Australia this Saturday. The Wallabies currently average the most points and tries conceded in the fourth quarter.
That latter record is shared with Wales, who have lost their last nine matches and currently sit at 11th in the rankings.
Warren Gatland’s side will battle to pick up a big scalp this November, and if their fourth-quarter numbers are any indicator, they could be in for a particularly tough night when hosting the Boks in Cardiff on 23 November.
In their most recent meeting with South Africa in June, Wales leaked 17 points in the final 20 minutes and went on to lose 41-13.
Of the tier-one nations, they rank last for points conceded (nine) in the first and fourth (nine) quarters. The Boks, as indicated earlier in this analysis, are among the world’s top point-scorers at the start and end of a Test.
France are no longer in the top-dog conversation, and that won’t change until they address their inconsistent performances and results.
Argentina have to be Test rugby’s most improved side in 2024, after claiming three wins in the Rugby Championship and a home victory against Les Bleus.
South Africa conceded 10 tries across their six-game Rugby Championship campaign, and four of those were leaked in the fifth-round clash in Santiago. Felipe Contepomi’s side may not be the finished article, but they’ve proved that they have what it takes to translate spirited performances into monumental wins.
New Zealand, England and France have been touted as the best of the rest in recent months, and yet it’s Los Pumas who warrant comparison to Ireland and the Boks regarding their fourth-quarter statistics, with an average of nine points for and five against in this period.
Argentina have found a way to close out big games, and their clash against Ireland in Dublin on 15 November will serve as another opportunity to show how much they’ve progressed.
Erasmus himself looks beyond the statistics when preparing his players for big matches and campaigns. Qualities such as leadership, decision-making and grit are needed to close out elite contests and win championships.
That said, the basic numbers show how the Boks and Ireland have converted those qualities into something more tangible over the past 12 months, and why they will be favourites to dominate over the coming weeks.
Haha ... Australia have been looking pretty good lately, and I have to say Suaalii was worth it. Australian SBW.
Ireland are kings of clutching at straws. At best.
So quickly proven wrong …ABS were clutch and grind today and outscored Ireland by 14 points in last 30
Yeah, but to be fair before that 'quickly' was a loooong period of mediocre - ABs were very good, as much as IRL were very poor.
I agree, but it was never going to be magic out the gate for Scott Robinson and this new squad but after todays match against Ireland they are well on their way.
I think where SA and Ireland have had it over us for perhaps the last 8 years is they have been well coached , they have been innovative and have always kept the old heads around but really do value the importance of having a wider squad that is as capable as their starting players. The All Blacks had that until after the 2015 WC then it started falling away . No innovation, hardly any new players coming in and we are now paying the price for it but on todays results we are definitely headed in the right direction and unfortunately it won’t happen overnight but it will happen. We could have won those games in SA against the worlds best at home and just beat number 1 ranked team at home so there are encouraging signs!. I already can’t wait for next season . Well done coaches and players .