On Saturday evening at the Suncorp, everything looked set for the ceremonial transfer of power. The old king was ready to abdicate, and the new prince of Australian rugby was primed for coronation at ‘the Sun-court’ in Brisbane. The Queensland Reds’ time to take over as the leading light of Australian provincial rugby had come at last.
All except for one small obstacle. The Brumbies were not prepared to hand over the crown without a fight, and the Reds were not quite good enough to take it from them. At the end of the game, the old regent remained stubbornly on his throne, sceptre defiantly in hand.
It was not as if the fates conspired to thwart the men in maroon. Quite the opposite. The Reds shot out to a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter, and the Brumbies lost their best back, centre Len Ikitau, to concussion after only three minutes. The home side could not have asked for a more propitious start. In the second half, the most promising young forward in Canberra, loose-head Blake Schoupp, was only on the field for five minutes before losing the remainder of his season to a serious Achilles injury.
The stars were fully aligned for Queensland to show their maturity as a team, and a championship-winning mindset. The fact the Brumbies prevailed 39-26 away from home showed they remain the proud possessors of both qualities, and still hold the keys to the kingdom in Aussie.
When five teams were reduced to four, and the playing spoils from the Melbourne Rebels had been divided up before this Super Rugby Pacific season ever started, nothing seemed less likely. The Canberra club was the last dog to the bowl when the assets from Melbourne were redistributed. Moreover it was the only franchise to come out in the red as the balance between prospective starters gained and lost on the transfer market became clear.
If you are not acquiring from without, you have to be promoting from within your own academy structure, and that is what the Brumbies have done so effectively for so many years. Young players are channelled through an excellent youth system and step out on to the Super Rugby stage ready to perform. ‘Cohesion’ is one word for it, and that seamless cultural staircase off the field tends to have some important outcomes on it. The Ponies have always responded well to adversity and risen to a challenge decisively, and they have demonstrated an ability to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.
These were the three qualities head coach Stephen Larkham highlighted in his comments after the game.
“You have got to make sure you can play well at home and on the road,” he said. “We started slow and we know the Reds are very dangerous on turnover ball and kick returns; we gave them a few of those opportunities early on and they capitalised on them. [But] we stuck at [the task] and there was nothing spectacular about it…
“I think conditions played a part in tonight’s game. We certainly have a game-plan that is suited to wet weather. We are pretty good at putting up a contestable [kick], chasing and putting pressure [on] at the breakdown, and the Reds kick long and adapting to the conditions was probably hard for them.”
You need plans which can win games home and away, plans which enable you to win in varied meteorological conditions, and ‘win ugly’ when the game dissolves into a chaotic scrap.
The same cannot be said of Les Kiss’ Queenslanders. Coming hard on the heels of their loss to the Chiefs in round eight, this was the second time in a row the Reds have failed to handle wet weather efficiently, and adapt to ‘the ugly’ – at their home in Brisbane, and away from it.
Les was fuming about some basic inadequacies.
“Each time we scored we exited poorly,” he said. “We always measure time in the opposition 22, we had two minutes in the game and they had eight minutes. We gifted too many opportunities for them to advance the game.
“I’ve got to take my hat off to the Brumbies. They were very disciplined in what they did and, eventually, the pressure turned into points. The Brumbies came here with a good plan and they were nice and fresh, and they played that way.
“I thought once we made a couple of errors. we probably got a little bit down on ourselves. We went away from the style that we like to play. But you’ve got to give credit to the Brumbies.”
Queensland skipper Tate McDermott added pertinently, “we always talk about being fast and hard, and we went away from those two key principles that got us the points in the first place.”
The Reds’ primary directive is to inject quicker tempo, using their handling skills and making the extra pass whenever they can – Queensland rank second in offloads per game – but there are times when the handbrake needs to be applied in adverse conditions. There are too many occasions when you need to content yourself with doing the mundane task well, and accepting the ‘ugly’ face of the game.
Exit strategy is a pivotal example. Exits seldom appeal to the more romantic, expansive spirit of the game. It is a matter of moving play away from the danger area near your own goal line as efficiently as you can. It is mundane work, it can get ugly, and it is accented by the change in mindset needed to come down quickly from the emotional high of having just scored yourself. For the Queensland Reds this season that is always a try as they still have not potted a single penalty goal. The potential for a big psychological crash is underlined in bold.
Queensland’s botched exits effectively lost them the crunch game of their season so far. They led directly to three tries by the Brumbies, three more penalties against and two other turnovers. The problems began after the Reds had scored their first try.
The hosts had already meandered through a couple of phases in their own 22 when McDermott threw a loopy pass at Tom Lynagh, and the Brumbies promptly turned the ball over on the next play.
If there are two aspects of the game which are keeping Tate out of the Wallaby starting XV at present, they are probably consistent attention to his quality of pass and the routine details of decision-making.
That picture was repeated in the 48th minute after a scruffy lineout win.
Allan Alaalatoa cleverly peels away one of the Reds’ cleanout players en route to the breakdown and the Ponies win the one-on-one contest. The men from Canberra scored through their driving lineout on the next play. They had already pulled off the same one-two knockdown combination in the first period.
First Josh Canham misreads the receipt from the kick-off, then the Reds double down by giving up a penalty at the next breakdown. On the scoring play, the reason why the Reds plug one of their blind-side wings into the 10 channel at short-range lineouts remains a mystery: Lynagh could not have done any worse than Tim Ryan at stopping the Bobby Valetini steamroller, and Harry McLaughlin-Phillips would probably have made a better fist of it than either of them.
The Reds appeared quite unable to manage the emotional reset required after scoring a try, and they duly crashed back down to earth with a bump instead.
Kiss’ Queenslanders remain the best provincial team in Australia – potentially. But at the Suncorp last Saturday, the Brumbies took the opportunity to remind them the reality on the ground is very different. In terms of winning culture and winning the matches that matter, the men from Canberra are still a world apart.
That strong culture has been enough to overcome the scraps from the Rebels’ bowl they received before the season ever started, and project them ahead of the two other Aussie sides sitting on a 5-3 win record.
It will also have amplified the urgency of questions surrounding the claims of Kiss to be Wallaby supremo without the right support around him. His Reds have improved and play a brand of attractive footy which will bring back the crowds to the Suncorp.
But until they can find a way to enjoy kicking penalty goals as much as they like to convert tries, and relish the ‘low’ of exits after the ‘high’ of scoring, they will not bear comparison with their brethren from Canberra. And the Brumbies will remain what they always have been. The understated, the unpretentious and all-too-often-disliked outliers who know what they really are: the best team in Australia.
It is nearly impossible to believe a rugby team has played 8 games and not had a shot at a penalty goal!Perhaps they are going for some sort of record?
It does look that way PB!
That game last weekend was deeply disappointing. To have 14 points on the board so fast, and given the weather conditions, any easy points on offer, I would say, should have been taken. It is fine to go for the lineout drive 5 or so m out with a really big buffer on the scoreboard, and a high rate on conversion success from lineout drives. The Qld. lineout is neither cast iron, nor is the drive particularly successful. I thought from that first lineout the Brumbies drove in while the catcher was still in the air, but Angus Gardiner did not see it that way.
I was particularly disappointed that Qld. were dominated by the Brumbies in contact so much. Harry Wilson was missing, but there were enough big hard forwards on hte field to have at least matched the Brumbies in that area.
Qld also let themselves down with poor handling….Lynagh threw one pass to ground when under no pressure, with two players in space outside. Then poor ball control in contact. Canham had a spill that should never happen with to a ball carrier at this level.
Finally very poor decision making. On more than one occasion Paisami took the ball into contact when the pass to a free man was the best option.
I’ve given the conversion rates from diff distances out from the GL elsewhere in one of the replies Miz:
Tier 1 matches [2024]
Tries scored from 5m out = 56%
6-10m out = 39%
11-22m out = 10%
If you’re not plumb on the 5m line, the chances of scoring dwindle rather dramatically!
They had pretty much everyone but Harry on the filed up front, but were getting done at the scrum, collisions and BD in particular. The mistakes you also reference do not describe a team ready to win a title.
Thanks Nick. Up the Brumbies!
Question- was Allan A legally allowed to peel that cleaner off the ball? It seemed to occur right in front of Gus and he was okay with it. I’m not across all of the new rules.
The Reds were a bit reliant on plan a. I also felt Harry Wilson was missed with his constant carries. Fraser was unusually quiet too. Maybe not 100%?
Lets hope Brumbies can get the win over in NZ.
I was stunned Gus let him get away with that. Blocking like that wouldn't be out of place in Gridiron.
Not really. He could have been done for an early tackle [among other things]. 😁
It’s something teams try to do to break up the cleanout in that three man pod, and it worked!
It doesn’t look like the Reds are too happy about adjusting, and when they ship points, they do it in a hurry!
“Question- was Allan A legally allowed to peel that cleaner off the ball? It seemed to occur right in front of Gus and he was okay with it”
My view is very clearly AA should have been penalised. Angus had some weak comment when challenged by the QLders that there was a pre latch.
I will just get stuck into Angus on this one. He has form in this area, when in the 6 N a few weeks ago he saw nothing wrong with Peter O’Mahoney being taken out when clearly not attached to a ruck by French lock Thibaud Flament. The hole created allowed a clear run in for a French try. It was in my view, a disgraceful decision.
Tis AA one last weekend was more subtle, and as Nick interestingly says “ Allan Alaalatoa cleverly peels away one of the Reds’ cleanout players en route to the breakdown”. “en route to the breakdown” says it all for me. AA had no right under the laws to do what he did, nor had Angus any right to ignore the offence.
Angus Gardner is a good referee, but he does lose the plot at times badly. I won’t start on the Lolesio high shot on Tate McDermott. Don’t want to risk dropping into OJohn mode !!
The Curse of Mayo ! In 1951, the Gaelic football team from County Mayo won the coveted Sam Maguire Cup in the All Ireland final at Croke Park in Dublin. Returning home to the western county in Connacht, in a open lorry, and in high spirits, they rolled into the little village of Foxford. Ireland was then a very different country to now, with ancient traditions and superstitions still strong, and the power of the priest supreme.
A funeral procession, headed by the local priest, was in progress to the chapel.The team should have fallen silent, got off the lorry, and paid their respects. They did not, carrying on through the village in full voice. I cold fury, the local priest is said to have cried out: “Damnation be upon every one of you ! As long as you all shall live, Mayo will never win another All Ireland “ And indeed in the 74 years since that day, Mayo have reached 11 finals, and lost every time ! The last man from the cursed team died in 1921, at 95 years of age, so Mayo may soon win again.
I wonder is Qld. also a cursed side ? I recall an article you wrote several years ago, Nick. George Smith had come to play for Qld. after retiring from International rugby, and fresh from a very successful stint at Wasps. Qld. we all thought, would reign supreme. They did not. Apart from the one good year under Brad Thorn, they do seem to me, with my Irish blood, and having lived in Africa where the curse is still alive and kicking, to be under a one such.
You mentioned Yprès a few weeks ago. I visited the area last year as well as Fromelles, where a distant relative of mine is buried. His father emigrated from Lithuania to Oz. His son ripe of 19 died in Fromelles one week after arriving to the area, his first day in battle. We paid respects at his tomb.
What a great story Miz. Thank you.
I dimly recall the George Smith article. Was it the SR AU covid season? Qld seem to attract more ppl into their stadiums quicker than anyone else when they win, so there’s obv the audience for success.
They just don’t do it often enough!
The most disappointing performance of the Les Kiss era and one which makes me worried about him as a potential Wallabies coach.
I hope Les and Ange don’t have the same thing in common - great when plan A works but found out as a one trick pony when there’s a need to adapt. About a week ago, Les said on the ABC, that breakdown accuracy is a key pillar for him and it was below the standard required on Saturday.
Greater appreciation and execution of the less flashy stuff is what I want against the Blues on ANZAC Day.
He didn’t want to dilute the attack plan at Irish for any reason if he could help it, which menat Irish were usually very entertaining to watch but requently had some big totals racked up against them. That does not work in Test footy. The Blues will be another good test next up, esp if it rains.
Whereas the Ponies‘ breakdown efficiency was Terminator-like. Didn't give Queensland a sniff.
Great article Nick, well written. The flip of this was that the Brumbies were facing the unenviable record of having lost to every Australian side, had the Reds won, which I can’t recall ever happening. So great they stepped up but they needed to. Also good Noah and RL both played well at the same time. The big games against the Canes, Reds and Tahs all in Canberra should see them well placed. But they have to beat MP this week if they want to stay in the hunt for a top 2 spot
True JO. I think both sides knew the importance of the game, but Brumbies understood better how to win it in the conditions. As you say they are well set up for that run of home games now…
Note to OJohn: ‘Patriotism is the virtue of the vicious’. At least, your kind of patriotism. Suck it up.
You scared him off Nick 😂
It is honestly a disgraceful statistic that the reds have not taken a single 3 pointer this season when you consider statistics its hard to believe that. Lets do the maths quickly, you have a penalty from 40 out thats an 80% chance (conservative) for your kicker to get 3 because its in front. Easy come, easy go, you get those 3 points 80% of the time for 2.4 points on average per kick. Even if you dont nail it you start with territory as now its a 22 drop out so you can bring the ball back again. Now instead of taking an obvious 3 you kick to the corner from 40 out. You get the mall 5m out maybe 10% of the time, you get it 10-15m out maybe 50% of the time and 35% of the time your kicker knocks it between 22-15m out. Now stats show when you get a lineout 5m out you score maybe 50-60%% of the time but if you have an incredible mall and you are top of the pile this stat rises to something like 70-80% of the time take Glasgow and Leinster in URC or the Springboks for example. If you are 10m out your likelihood of scoring drops dramatically. Like 60% becomes 20% for example and this is just to get 5 points mind you, there is a 30-40%% chance you will not even add the 2 to make it a 7 pointer. So which is easier and better for you? Sure the game situation matters. If you are trailing by 15 the 3 may not be wise but the Reds have won 5 of their 8 matches this year and are a good team. They have plenty of chances to take the 3 in situations where its easier and logical to do so than going for the try. They have been involved in 3 games that finished with just 1 score between the sides. There have been plenty of opportunities to take 3 they just don’t care for it. No side in Rugby has ever won anything substantial this way. The Reds would do well to remember that and also remember that they will never usurp the Brumbies while they refuse to add a douse of pragmatism to their flair.
Leinster used to kick for the corner a lot but they still took the three-pointer when necessary. And I have the stats myself on diff distances from the GL:
Tier 1 matches [2024]
Tries scored from 5m out = 56%
6-10m out = 39%
11-22m out = 10%
So your chances of kicking a goal from inside the ‘box’ formed by the 30m and two 15m lines are likely to be higher.
So there is a questionmark hanging over the Reds policy.
Thanks Nick, a few interesting takes here, it seems for the Reds there is no half way house between playing attacking exciting rugby and the Brumbies style of play. Surely a balance between the two styles would take them to the pinnacle of Aussie rugby. Do you think this is an easy fix or is Les too fixated on his current system? If this is the case, it would certainly question if he is ready for International duty.
That’s the interesting part Jon - it’s always ‘sh*t or bust’ with the Reds and that has some def psychological issues attached to it.
Les did the same at Irish. It certainly produces entertainment and high-scoring games but it also yields plenty of chances for the oppo. Not Test footy.
Its almost become a chain around his neck now. No matter what they do going forward it will be scrutenized heavily.
If you watch the ball flight on Tate’s passes, it wobbles around the axis, never a clean tight spiral. It’s obviously an issue with his technique that should have been coached out of him by now.
His passing has improved but it something that needs constant work. Ask Nugget!